No lack of space for 10 million in Singapore? Really?

Hello there. Let's do another piece on the population density in Singapore today. There has been a piece circulating on social media about how there is "no lack of space in Singapore for 10 million" written by Ku Swee Yong. The fact that this article has appeared in two respectable websites (The Edge Singapore and Yahoo! Singapore) means that this kind of argument is being taken fairly seriously in Singapore. Well, I've lived in loads of different cities around the world, so allow me to respond to Mr Ku's arguments as I compare the situation in Singapore to other places. I must say, I am deeply disappointed by the reactions by the vast majority of the the comments I have seen in social media - yes they think Mr Ku is wrong, but they have resorted to name calling and making fun of Mr Ku's surname rather than offering a cogent counterargument. Oh, let's not go there, okay? So, please allow me consider the following points:

Rush hour in Singapore - crowded enough for you?

1. Higher population density = higher property prices

Land in Singapore is finite, despite the best efforts of land reclamation - the population of Singapore was 2.5 million when I was a child back in the early 80s and if you were to increase that to 10 million, that's a fourfold increase. Can you increase the size of Singapore fourfold? No, that is just not logistically possible, even with the best technology in the world. At best, land reclamation has added 16% to Singapore's original land area: does that justify a fourfold increase in the population during one lifetime? Do the maths people. When demand outstrips supply like that, it drives up the price of the commodity. Mr Ku may wax lyrical about HDB blocks that can be 40 storeys high, but why do you think this has not been done as of yet? Such skyscrapers cost considerably more to build than apartment blocks that are not as high. Just because the technology is available to build some exceptionally tall skyscrapers in Singapore doesn't mean that it makes sense to use such buildings for public housing as they cost a lot to build. Building much taller HDB blocks will inevitably increase the price of these flats. Thus if you're poor, then you're screwed as you'll never ever get on the property ladder.

2. Who will be squeezed more? How will people react?

When you increase the population, undoubtedly, a direct consequence of that will be a rise in property prices. When that happens, the poor will be squeezed a lot more than the rich. Those who are rich can simply make provisions and arrangements, for example, they can cut back on other luxuries like a new car, branded goods and exotic holidays in order to buy more living space. The poor who are already living with just the bear necessities have nothing to cut back on to find more money to buy more living space. Thus a rise in property prices will be just an inconvenience for the rich, "damn, there goes my dream two-week honeymoon in southern Spain" or "my daughter will not be able to go study at that American university anymore" but for the poor, the impact on the quality of their lives will be far greater.

The rich will always be able to buy the homes they desire.

3. Public spaces will be sacrificed: again it is the poor who suffer

In poor countries, where the poor live in very crowded conditions, in poor quality housing, they often escape to public areas like parks, places of religious worship, riversides, beaches and other public spaces to hang out. This is because sitting around on a beach or in a lovely park is probably a far more pleasant experience than sharing their living rooms or bedrooms with quite a few other people. If you want to house 10 million people in Singapore, you will have to sacrifice a lot of public spaces such as park land, beaches and other pieces of land currently used for community centers, libraries, playgrounds and sports facilities. What little public spaces left will become even more crowded, making them less of an attractive refuge for people to escape to. Imagine if you're a poor person who escapes to the local swimming pool to hang out for a few hours after work: what will happen if the pool becomes twice as crowded (and noisy)? But for a rich person, this is not the kind of situation that will ever affect him - he doesn't care as he has a private pool at his condominium, where the public cannot access.

4. Higher population density = less personal living space

At some point you will have to return home: when population density increase, the amount of personal living space will decrease. This of course, will disproportionately affect the poor. If you're rich, you can always afford nice dwellings. But if you're poor, you will never be able to afford to get on the property ladder and you will have to bring up your family in your parents' flat. Imagine 10 or even 12 people squeezed into a typical HDB flat - that is what is going to happen if young people cannot afford to move out and get their own flats. It sounds unlikely at the moment, but this may become the norm for the next generation of lower income Singaporeans. This will have a huge detrimental effect on the quality of life for the next generation of Singaporeans. I speak as a man who has served NS, who has shared a bunk with 10 other men - I need my personal space. No matter how social you may be, you still need some private personal space when you come home from work at the end of the day. Personal space will soon become a luxury in Singapore.

What is the optimum population density for a city?

5. Living in crowded flats = pray you have good neighbours.

I have lived for 12 years in a block of flats in central London (I have moved to a house earlier this year) and for the first 8 years or so, I had little trouble as the people I lived next to were reasonable, some were even nice. Then the woman next to me sold her flat and the guy who bought it rented it out to a whole string of tenants who behaved pretty obnoxiously: things got from bad to worse when the property changed hands again and the guy who moved in turned out to be not only very nocturnal, but a real party animal who often brought guests home in the middle of the night. It drove me nuts as it affected my sleep so badly. I craved for more living space, to have a bigger house where I wouldn't have to contend with neighbours like that. Thankfully, I am rich enough to simply buy a bigger house when I wanted to: if the population of Singapore increases to 10 million, you had better hope and pray that you have considerate neighbours as you will be living out of each other's pockets in very crowded conditions. What if the baby next door starts crying at 2 in the morning? What if the couple next door starts having noisy sex in the middle of the night? What if your neighbour's mobile phone rings at night - will you be able to hear it from your bedroom? Can you imagine how bad the noise situation will be? And that's just noise - remember the currygate incident? Oh dear.

6. Competition for places in local schools, public transport, hospitals and clinics.

Even if you do somehow manage to cram 10 million people into Singapore, they need more than just housing: what about education services, will there be enough schools to serve a population of 10 million? What will happen to class sizes, will there be enough teachers to teach all of these students? What about public transport? Will the buses and MRT be able to cope at peak hours with so many people trying to get around the country? Given the recent record of breakdowns, one is not filled with confidence when it comes to transport in Singapore. Furthermore, what about medical services: what will happen to waiting times in hospitals and the quality of care at the hospitals? Will there be enough doctors and nurses to serve a nation of 10 million people? Increasing the population means having to ensure that all these other vital amenities are not compromised for the local population and I'm not convinced that Mr Ku has given any serious thought to this, apart from assuming that the PAP will simply wave a magic wand and sort it all out.

Will the public transport infrastructure be able to cope with 10 million?

7. Even if it is possible, is it desirable? 

Even if it is possible to somehow cram 10 million people into Singapore, is it actually desirable and more to the point, is it what Singaporeans want? Would it actually make Singaporeans happy? Would it actually make Singaporeans happier than say, if the population was a lower figure at 5, 6 or 7 million? So really the argument shouldn't be whether or not it is possible to house 10 million people in Singapore, but whether that would be an ideal situation or not. Think about it: when my family visited my uncle in Hong Kong in 1985, the five of us stayed in their small apartment in the North Point district. I slept on floor by the sofa (where by father slept) and in total, nine of us managed to live like that for our short holiday in Hong Kong. Was it possible? Sure, we managed somehow. Was it comfortable? No, far from it. I remember my mother saying that if she had known how cramped and uncomfortable it was going to be, she would have gladly paid for hotel rooms. Ah well, but they were just too paiseh to refuse the hospitality of my uncle.

8. If this growth is not from the locals, then what are the impacts of high rates of immigration?

The birth rate in Singapore is one of the lowest in the world. Without any immigrants settling in Singapore, the population of Singapore would have declined a long time ago since the replacement ratio for the birthrate is 2.1 - that means that parents have to have two children to replace themselves when they die and that 0.1 is to account for those who do not have children. For the last few years, the birth rate in Singapore has been about 1.25, yet the population continues to grow due to immigration from countries like China, India, the Philippines and other Asian countries. The impact on Singaporean society has been felt by the local-born Singaporeans, who have felt their country evolve and change into something unrecognizable in a very short space of time. Are the locals happy with this kind of change? Do they welcome these migrants with open arms, or is their presence resented by those who view them with suspicion? I'm not going to beat around the bush and ask rhetorical questions like that - I think it is a disaster for Singapore when you try to grow population so aggressively like that. I'm not anti-immigration per se, but you need to be a lot more selective as to whom you allow into Singapore and keep the undesirable characters out. The PAP are happy to admit anyone and everyone - it is virtually an open-door policy and the results have been PRCs shitting in public. Yucks!

9. The government's relationship with the poor: a more socialist approach vs PAP.

I have written a piece on life in more densely populated cities than Singapore (please read it) and you may be surprised to know that Paris and Brussels are actually more densely populated than Singapore. Overall, the population density in France and Belgium is relatively low, but if you were to simply look at the data for their capital cities, they are surprisingly densely populated. But do note the nature of French and Belgian societies: they pay higher levels of tax and the government has a far more 'Robin Hood' approach to taxation. They collect taxes from the rich and spend it on the poor - so for example, much of the poor in Paris live in social housing (known as habitations à loyer modéré, or HLM). This is a housing programme to provide heavily subsidized (or even free) housing to the very poorest and most vulnerable in French society. Along with the HLM programme, there is also the 'protection sociale' , a welfare programme designed to help those who are unable to work or unemployed. In short, the French have ensured that there is a safety net to protect those at the very bottom of the food chain in their country, even if property prices go through the roof in Paris. Such is French society for you, their socialist system protects the poorest in their society.

Singapore's government has a very different approach - even the severely disabled get far less assistance from the state compared to France and if you're unemployed? Don't expect anyone in the government or society to offer you anything more than scorn, mockery and disdain! Just the social stigma, the shame of being unable to find a job is unique to Asian societies. Singaporeans tend to blame the poor for being poor - as if they deserve to be poor because they were just too lazy to study hard at school, thus that's why they can't get a decent job today that pays more and that's why they have no one to blame but themselves if they are living in poverty today; that their poverty is like a punishment for their poor moral character. So if you do increase the population to 10 million in Singapore without any additional help for the very poorest in society, then you're going to create a lot of misery for the very poorest in Singapore. But would the PAP do that though? Would they risk making these people so miserable that they will eventually stop voting for the PAP if they can't even put food on the table and their living standards deteriorate thus? 

Limpeh has studied and worked in France. 

10. A more divided city: goodbye social cohesion

If you were to increase the population to 10 million, then rising property prices will increase hardship for the poor and as a result, wealth and income disparity will increase. The poor will become a lot poorer. When I visited Colombo in Sri Lanka, I was hosted by a family friend who lived in a very nice condominium (not unlike one you would find in Singapore). The only difference was that it had much higher fences and more security guards - in contrast, the security guard at my sister's condominium is an old man who is usually napping or on his phone. But oh in Colombo, those security guards were there to make sure poor people didn't get into this very exclusive condominium complex reserved for rich people and they looked a lot more menacing. On my first night there, we were taken to a very fine restaurant in town - again, security guards at the entrance, to keep poor people out. Would you like to see that situation in Singapore, where you have no-go zones for poorer people? Security guards at entrances to condominiums or even exclusive designer boutiques, keeping those deemed not rich enough out?   The more unequal a society becomes, the more divided it will be. Are you willing to sacrifice social cohesion in the name of profit? What are your priorities, what kind of Singapore do you want for the future? Do you want a future dominated by security guards telling you which areas you are deemed good enough to enter and where you're not welcomed?

So there you go, that's ten good reasons for you to reject Mr Ku's argument about housing ten million people in Singapore. So what do you think? Are there any other reasons why housing ten million people in Singapore will be a bad idea? Or do you think that there are actually very good reasons why Singapore should try to grow to ten million inhabitants? Leave a message below, let me know what you think please, let's talk about it. Many thanks for reading.