Konichiwa, こんにちは and hello everyone! We stay in Japan for one more leg but this time, the teams get to explore the beautiful ancient capital of Kyoto, which is full of beautiful historic buildings. TAR US has never visited the city of Kyoto before, so it is nice to see them visit somewhere new. Many tourists who visit Japan like to spend some time in historic places like Kyoto and Nara, where the pace of life is a bit slower than the hectic cities like Tokyo and Osaka. There is much to talk about, but before we dive into what happened in Kyoto, let's take a look at the average rankings after leg 3.
Average ranking after leg 3 in Kyoto
- Scott & Lori =2
- Jonathan & Ana =2
- Carson & Jack 2.33
- Alyssa & Josiah 3.66
- Melinda & Erika 5
- Brett & Mark 5.33
- Pops & Jeff 5.66
- Bernie & Carrigian 7.33
- Courtney & Jasmin 7.66 (eliminated in Kyoto)
- Nick & Mike 7.66
- Han & Holden 8.33
Were the results on this leg surprising?
No. To be honest, the rankings didn't move much for a simple reason: the teams set off from Osaka in the order they finished the last leg, so the first few teams were over an hour ahead of the teams at the back of the pack. The first two teams Scott & Lori and Jonathan & Ana were on a train that left at 9:33 am whilst the last team Han & Holden were on the train that departed at 11:18 am - that is a 1 hour 45 minute deficit that they were never going to make up, so we already knew that the teams at the front of the pack were safe no matter how badly they messed up and it was always going to be one of the teams that were already closer to the back of the pack who were facing elimination. The trains from Osaka to Kyoto are so frequent and efficient that the teams would never be all bunched up at the train platform waiting for the next train. However, it turned out to be a team in the middle of the pack that got eliminated: after all, Courtney & Jasmin finished 6th out of 12th in leg 2, they were well and truly in the middle of the pack so this result did surprise me. They were doomed after Courtney decided to do the roadblock and she simply didn't have the coordination to pull off a physical task like that. If you have played football/soccer before, then of course you have an advantage, otherwise it was simply a question of climbing a steep learning curve and keeping calm under pressure. I thought they had half a chance to catch up when Bernie & Carrigian wasted a lot of time at the Ninja detour, but that was not the case - unfortunately, the origami task wasn't that easy either. The average rankings didn't shift much but we see Scott & Lori moving up to joint first place after leg 3. Good for them, congratulations! I didn't pick them as one of the stronger teams at the start of the season but the statistics speak for themselves. They made a strategic decision not to go for the fast forward and it paid off well. They do remind me of Kim & Penn, winners of S33 - they had an average age of 46 when they won S33 and if Scott & Lori win, then they will break that record by just a little, as they average 48. Everyone loves an underdog story, I had initially thought that some of the younger teams like Carson & Jack or Nick & Mike would dominate this season, but this is beginning to get interesting and that is brilliant, as we don't want a predictable season.
How long does the bullet train take to go from Osaka to Kyoto?
Why didn't Lori try to go for the express pass?
It was a strategic decision that they made. Lori had enough time to look at what the kemari roadblocked whilst Scott was completing it and she had enough time to decide if she could complete it quickly enough to give them a chance to win the express pass, if it was worth the risk or not. At this stage of the race, the express pass is not that valuable to them. The express pass can be used if a team encounters a particularly difficult task and can use it to bypass the pass, so as to avoid elimination. Another situation an express pass is often used is if a team is U-turned, so they can use it to avoid having to do the other side of the detour. However, at this stage, Scott & Lori are the strongest team statistically, so they are unlikely to need it until the later stages of this season - that's probably what Jonathan & Ana ought to do, save the express pass for a much later leg as you only really need it when there are no longer any weaker teams left in the race.
Did production mess up on the ninja detour?
Before you scream, well how the heck would you know Alex? Allow me to state that I'm speaking as someone with experience in this genre of competitive reality TV production. Usually, I'm the first to attack and criticize the production team when I sense that something has gone desperately wrong and in this case, obviously the ninja detour was so difficult that not a single team managed to succeed and all who attempted were forced to switch. The origami task was difficult but doable, at least every single team that attempted it passed, though some were obviously faster than others. The test for the ninja detour was way too strict, it was obvious that the spikes were so hard to master, especially since you had to hit the target board square on to avoid it bouncing off. Surely they could have given the teams the same challenge but with more realistic standards, like scoring a hit one out of three times (instead of expecting them to hit it three out of three times). Production would have road tested these detour tasks before the race, to make sure that they are doable and reasonable - I can only imagine that there were some crew members in Kyoto who had amazing physical dexterity and made the ninja tasks look quite doable. It is not the most scientific way to ascertain if a task is too difficult or not, but it's often a case of, "well, if five of the crew members can succeed doing this task within 30 minutes, then it can't be that impossible, can it? Even Brad managed to do it and he's the oldest one here!" However, do bear in mind the fact that when crew members are trying out these tasks, they are under no pressure at all to succeed - they are calm and probably having a lot of fun; contrast that to when racers are under a lot of stress trying to figure out something they have never ever done before. Still, I'd like to think that all these factors should have been taken into consideration and clearly, they did get the balance wrong in this case despite probably having done some tests on those challenges with the crew.
Have I grossly underestimated Melinda & Erika?
We need to talk about Melinda who was 65 at the time of filming (she is now 66), making her the oldest racer in this season, just one year older than Pops. At first, I took a look at her and thought, the oldest racers are going to get eliminated first but here they are, three legs in and sitting comfortably at fifth place with a respectable average of 5 whilst other younger teams have fared far worse than them. They have been very strategic of course and that's the key to their success: so for example in this leg, it was Erika who performed the kemari roadblock as it was a task that required much physical dexterity and coordination whilst Melinda hasn't attempted a single roadblock yet - she would have to at some point, but this strategy has kept them in the race in a very comfortable position. Contrast this with what happened in the last episode, when Ernest who was 59 crashed and burned on the taiko drums detour. that led to their elimination in Osaka - imagine if they had adopted the same strategy as Melinda & Erika and simply let the younger racer Bridget perform it instead. All I am saying is this strategy has worked so far for Melinda & Erika and it has gotten them this far, but I remind you that in the first five seasons of TAR, there was no limit as to how many roadblocks an individual racer could attempt - that led to the totally ridiculous situation with S3 winners Flo & Zach - Flo was the weaker racer and only did one roadblock whilst Zach did 10. So from S6, that was no longer allowed and both racers in a team had to do an equal number of roadblocks. Melinda may be faced with a very physically demanding roadblock in the next leg, we'll just cross our fingers for her that this isn't the case, as I like them as a team and I want to see them go further in this season.
Did this episode do Kyoto justice?
On balance, yes. Kyoto is a stunning city and we did see our fair share of charming temples and ancient shrines in this episode. Although I did think some of the elements of this episode were a bit pointless, such as taking so many taxis from one temple/shrine to another - come on, I don't like it when the outcome of the leg depends way too much on being able to flag down a taxi on the street, there's a huge element of luck and chance to that. At least there was one element of public transport in this episode, taking the bullet train so why not use more of Japan's excellent public transport system?
Nice to see that some alliances are emerging.
It is nice to see some friendships (maybe alliances is too strong a word at this point) emerging in the race - notably between Melinda & Erika and Pops & Jeff, the two parent-child teams left. We also saw some teams help each other at the origami roadblock, after all, at this stage, you're just fighting to avoid elimination and helping a weaker team is a good way to take them through to the next leg with you whilst hoping for a much stronger team to have a bad day in the office and get eliminated. The race is very intense and a lot of pressure can build up within the team, thus it is just nice to have a new social dynamic by interacting with another team, that can relieve and release some of that stress. I'm all for alliances, especially in the earlier part of the race. After all, what the racers are going through is so crazy intense, the crew are instructed to keep an arm's length from the teams and instructed not to talk to the teams as much as possible - like if you asked a question like, "where's the nearest toilet please?" They will of course tell you where it is, but if you asked a question like, "have you seen any other teams attempt this detour yet?" They are not allowed to say a word to you, however, you are of course allowed to speak to the other teams and there's a huge sense of empathy amongst the teams as they are all going through this crazy, intense and stressful experience together. So even saying something like, "this morning was just insane, I'm still in shock," to another team and getting a response like, "ah yes, I know exactly what you mean." That sense of "finally, someone understands exactly how I feel" is important for the racers at this point.
Which teams were cracking under pressure in Kyoto?
Evidently Courtney & Jasmin cracked under pressure and that led to their elimination in this leg. But otherwise, we saw Bernie & Carrigian and Han & Holden argue (but that's nothing new, I expected nothing less after the last two legs) but it was interesting to see Alyssa & Josiah crack under pressure as well after they failed to complete the ninja detour - on one hand, that detour was impossible to complete but on the other hand, one needs to be rational and say, "let's cut our losses and switch now, no drama, let's move on quickly and calmly." Most of the teams who switched did just that - they just moved on quickly and calmly. Fingers crossed, let's hope Alyssa & Josiah will emerge stronger from this experience.
The teams are off to Bali next where the "Driver's Seat" awaits.
We don't see enough in the previews of the next episode to see who got into the driver's seat with this new plot twist, we just see teams riding on ATVs through the lush tropical rainforest in Bali. But we know that for the driver's seat, "the first team to arrive at the board could determine how much work the remaining teams had to do during the subsequent task." Okay, so my question is this, say it is a simple physical task like carrying sacks of rice up a flight of stairs. Does the first team get to say, "we want Melinda & Erika to carry up only one sack as we like them and we wanna help them, but we want Brett & Mark to carry up 20 sacks; sorry but they are super strong and we need to slow them down. This might even be a chance to get rid of them." Or is the decision a lot more straightforward like, "pick a number between one and ten for the number of sacks of rice the teams have to carry up those stairs, all teams will perform the same task, you just get to decide on how demanding the task will be by choosing that number." I think it will be more interesting and fun to allow the first team to effectively sabotage some of the other teams in this manner, I'm excited to see how this plot twist pans out.
Who will win leg 4 in Bali?
Going by the statistics, I think it ough be Scott & Lori or Jonathan & Ana, but my gut tells me that it is time for another team to shine, someone like Carson & Jack or even Brett & Mark may get a shot, since many teams will probably end up on the same flight to Bali and it will be a big reset when they all land at the same time there. We did see in the previews the teams setting off on an ATV course in a different order, so I am guess the teams got to Bali pretty much all on the same flight and that order was determined by how quickly the teams were able to get from Denpasar Airport to the location where they had to drive the ATVs - I don't like that though, as that's just down to getting lucky with one's taxi driver. I always feel that TAR should be about skill and not luck. Too many taxi rides have been featured in this season!
Who will be eliminated next?
Well I hate to be blunt, but there are still a number of weak teams left at this stage. The stronger teams at the front of the pack are really just fighting for first place as there is always a nice prize for the team that comes first but really, it will be a few more legs before the real competition begins - that's when all the weakest teams are gone and there is no room for error, one little mistake and you're eliminated. That is when it becomes really exciting; contrast this to the early part of the race, when you can totally mess up on a task but still count on another weaker team being slower than you. Thus with that in mind, I think I have to listen to the statistics: Han & Holden are the weakest team at this point, but Bernie & Carrigian barely escaped elimination in Kyoto - it will have to be one of them who will be next to go but with the driver's seat coming up, this might give one team a chance to make a strategic kill and get rid of a stronger team in this next leg.
Wait, I ought to reevaluate my top 3 finalists.
I always say one needs to park one's emotions at the front door and look at the statistics. So right now, the three strongest teams are as follows: Scott & Lori, Jonathan & Ana and Carson & Jack. Those are now my new top 3 finalists, with Alyssa & Josiah and Brett & Mark having an outside chance to get in the finals - my favourite from the start have been Brett & Mark, but I am having my doubts about them after their massive mistake in leg 2 that dropped them from joint first to joint last. Say what you want about Jonathan and his bad attitude or the way he has been treating Ana so far, but at least that guy means business and will do anything to win - that is the kind of ruthlessness you need to have to win TAR, you need that killer's instinct. This is not a popularity contest, it is a race and no, I still really dislike his bad attitude.
Sorry this post was late - I have been on holiday!
I know this post is very late, I watched this episode on Thursday evening (UK time), then on Friday morning, I flew off to Germany to ski - I spent the weekend at Garmisch Partenkirchen Zugspitze (yup that is the full name) ski resort, which is Germany's highest mountain on the border with Austria and had a great time there. We had some really good conditions. I flew back on Monday and now it is Tuesday, you can check out my photos and videos from my holiday on my travel Instagram. I love living in Europe because you can do long weekends like that in another country (or two) and it's just the kind of short break that does not mess too much with your work schedule. Once again, as always, thank you for reading.
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