TAR S37 E2: This is not a holiday, it is a race!

Konichiwa, こんにちは and hello everyone - this second leg of the race took place in Osaka, Japan. TAR US is actually very fond of Japan and it is their ninth visit to Japan - Japan is however, only the third most visited Asian country on TAR US, behind China and India. TAR has in fact visited Osaka twice before in S12 and S20, with most of the other seasons routing the teams through Tokyo instead as it would be the most obvious city to connect through when traveling to Japan. Given how big Japan, I am surprised that TAR has mostly stuck with the biggest cities most popular with the tourists rather than venture off the beaten path to other hidden gems; but given that TAR is mostly targeting an American audience who will never ever set foot in Japan, I can understand why they are going for the obvious. As for my Japanese credentials, I have been to Japan twice and I speak some Japanese; it is possibly the hardest language I have studied given just how confusing the grammar structure is. So let's look at the average ranking statistics after this leg in Osaka. 

Average ranking after leg 2 in Osaka

• Jonathan & Ana 1.5
• Alyssa & Josiah 2
• Carson & Jack 2.5
• Scott & Lori 2.5
• Brett & Mark 5.5
• Pops & Jeff 5.5
• Melinda & Erika 5.5
• Bernie & Carrigian 6
• Courtney & Jasmin 6
• Nick & Mike 7.5
• Ernest & Bridget 7.5 (eliminated in Osaka)
• Han & Holden 8

Was the outcome a surprise? Was age a factor again? 

Yes and no. After what happened last week, when it was the two oldest teams who got eliminated in Hong Kong, I had assumed that the next oldest racer would be vulnerable and that would be Melinda who was 65 at the time of filming; however, it was Ernest who was 59 who came to grief at the Taiko drum challenge during the intersection. Now this wasn't a physical task, but it was a fiendishly difficult memory task. Let me be the first to point out that unless you have had some previous training in memorizing music and reading music (say if you spent years learning a musical instrument), then you were likely to be there for a long time climbing a very steep learning curve, which was the case for most teams but Ernest arrived first and left last, clearly having struggled with it the most out of every single racer who had to do the challenge. Thus this begs the question: was age a factor again? Should they have chosen Bridget to do the Taiko drums challenge instead of her father? After all, Erika did the drum challenge (intersected with Holden) and thus Melinda didn't do anything at the Taiko drum challenge - it would be interesting to see if she would have struggled as much as Ernest had she attempted it. The blunt questions I want to ask are: do old people struggle with memory challenges? Do younger people find it a lot easier to memorize complex sequences, like a drum routine? Do our short term memory fade skills diminish significantly after we turn 50? There is no simple answer to that as some people age a lot more gracefully than others and a lot of that depends on what we do with our brains in our 40s, 50s and 60s. Being an older man myself (I turn 49 this year), I am always rooting for the older racers but when it comes to casting older racers, you must make sure you cast older racers who have a realistic chance of competing against these younger racers and sorry, Ernest is a good example of an older racer who had no chance whatsoever, I am speaking from personal experience here to try to throw some light on the issue and it is not intended to generalize or even offend/insult anyone.

How you grow old and what happens to your brain is a personal choice.

I came from a very poor working class family and my parents had very working class jobs - that meant that they had a relatively easy task that they had to perform everyday and those tasks didn't vary much from year to year. It was the kind of job for those adults who were not highly educated and lack the kind of skills to do a more highly paid professional job; but my parents didn't complain at all, they rather enjoyed this situation as they knew they were always going to be able to do the (relatively easy) tasks expected of them at work everyday. Personally, I would find that so boring to do the same easy tasks day in day out, every single day at work with little variety to the routine, but it was a routine that suited my parents fine and this was the reality for a lot of working class folks. Contrast this to my world today, I run my own company in corporate finance, I take on brand new projects on a regular basis and I have to climb very steep learning curves all the time. I do not have the luxury of waking up in the morning knowing I know everything I need to know to do my job - no, on the contrary, I am always having to learn something new every single day in order to run my business well and I am always learning yet another foreign language in order to make sure my brain is used to the fact that it has to learn as I am forcing myself to learn something new every single day. I remember back in the later 1980s when we got our first microwave oven, my mother had a mini meltdown when I tried to teach her how to use it and the reason why my mother found learning anything new like that so hard and daunting was because she had chosen a job where she got to actively avoid learning anything new and she was willing to put up with the boredom of repetitive tasks in order to avoid this kind of situation. I don't even think my father dared to touch that microwave oven for the first five years or so. Now Ernest is a retired police officer, his job isn't as mundane or simple as the one my parents did before they retired. Yet it does seem like people who work in the police department are not constantly challenged to learn new skills all the time or at least in Ernest's case, it came across like his brain was simply out of practice when it came to scaling a steep learning curve very quickly, possibly due to the nature of his job or because he hasn't tried to learn anything new for a long time . Now I know what you are all saying, working class folks can still learn new stuff in their free time. But you should've seen my father, he just collapsed in front of the TV after work and fell asleep watching garbage on TV rather than try to learn anything new - sadly, he just absolutely had no desire whatsoever to improve himself by trying to learn something new. 

Bridget really have done the Taiko drums challenge instead of her dad.

Evidently so, we no idea how well she would have done but it is hard to imagine anyone performing worse than Ernest in this case. There is an element of making strategic choices within the team and in this case, they didn't think this one through. You have two members in the team and you need to pick the most suitable member to do the task at hand to make sure you don't fall to last. If you claim that Ernest didn't know he was going to struggling this much learning a drum routine, well then, that shows that just they were rather poorly prepared for the race as part of the preparation is about knowing what your strengths and weaknesses are within the team and also properly understanding your team dynamic. 

Can we talk about the other huge mistake in this leg? 

Oh boy, Brett & Mark chose to do the intersection with Ernest & Bridget without once considering, wait a minute, surely it'll make more sense to pair up with Carson & Jack. You're not obliged to pair up with the team that is waiting for you there and they could have spent a moment to think about what would be the most strategic decision to make. It is not about being fair or nice, it is about being strategic in this case. Brett & Mark are a very strong team and were the second to arrive at the intersection, yet they rushed that decision and paid a very high price for it. Will they have learnt their lesson as a result of this? Has this awful experience scared them enough to change their mindset? Or does this show us that they are not as strategic as some of the other teams and thus are not as much of a threat as I had initially thought? 

Do you like intersections? 

We tend to see intersections used a lot more in TAR Canada than in TAR US, but personally, I like it because I think great friendships can form if two teams work well together - most of the teams are so focused on their own race they essentially ignore the other teams or even view them as the enemy but making teams work together like that can result in great friendships being formed out of this intense experience whilst working together. So I think it adds a new layer of social dynamic to the race and that's why I think it is interesting - I would have liked to have seen teams been a lot more strategic about picking their partners at the intersection though rather than just grabbing the first team that comes along.

Which was easier: mochi or mawashi? 

Oh without a doubt, the mochi detour was a lot easier. It was just hard labour in the Japanese summer heat pounding that big lump of sticky rice, but there wasn't that much skill involved - even the teams who made the mochi balls too big were able to rectify that mistake fairly quickly. Whereas the mawashi detour required a high degree of attention to detail to get the many intricate knots just right in order to pass the test. There was a lot more that could go wrong with the mawashi than the mochi, given that each racer had to tie the mawashi knot on each other, so even if one racer knew how to do it right, they couldn't help the other racer. But with the mochi detour, even if one racer decided to do absolutely nothing (if they were exhausted from the heat), it could easily be completed (mostly) by one racer. Yet somehow, only three of the teams went for the easier side of the detour. I did roll my eyes though, you're not there to have a holiday in Japan, you're not there to experience Japanese culture but you're there to participate in the race and make sure you pick the easier detour - not the one that you think will be more interesting. This would be especially crucial if you're battling it out for first place as there was a really nice prize on offer for the winning team here (more on the winners later) and if you are desperately fighting to avoid elimination, then of course it would make a lot more sense to pick the mochi detour. 

Let's talk about the winning team: Jonathan & Ana

Congratulations to Jonathan & Ana for running a flawless leg. They started out strong by getting on the second flight, but they blitzed through the Taiko drum challenge and leapt to first place after a very successful partnership between Jonathan and Jack, taking only three attempts to complete that challenge swiftly. The results speak for themselves: they are a really strong team and are statistically the top team right now and the team to beat. I didn't like some of Jonathan's behaviour in leg 1 but hey, that is a moot point as this isn't a popularity contest and he's not here to please the viewers. We have seen them at their best in this leg, but I would be curious as to how they cope with the pressure when they are either in the middle or the back of the pack, as they look like a team that wouldn't cope too well under a lot of pressure. 

Do they speak English in Japan? 

The simple answer is no, they simply do not speak English in Japan. The reason is that Japan is a very homogenous society - that means practically everyone in Japan is Japanese, thus eliminating the need to speak a foreign language like English. That's why communication with the taxi drivers was so difficult as they would only speak Japanese. I noticed that Carson & Jack spoke some Japanese, but none of the other teams knew more than one word - arigato (thank you).

Talking about teams cracking under pressure. 

Oh dear, I'm afraid that massive argument that Bernie & Carrigian had at Hong Kong airport was just ugly to watch as they turned on each other, took their frustrations out on each other and attacked each other instead of supporting each other. They did themselves no favours whatsoever by imploding like that and whilst I accept that it is reality TV, you don't want to make a fool of yourselves when there is a camera pointing right at your face. I understand how it can be a huge amount of stress and pressure for anyone to have to endure but at times like that, if you turn on each other, that's when a team will self-destruct under pressure and we've seen that a lot on TAR. Luckily that happened as they were waiting for their flight rather than during a challenge, or else that would have well and truly messed with their heads during the challenge and affected them emotionally. The other team that cracked under pressure was Han & Holden who went into blind panic after they realized they had made a mistake by letting their taxi go after picking up their clue at the Tsūtenkaku Tower - what they should have done was to ask a local for help, perhaps by trying to locate the nearest hotel and asking for help there (as they often call taxis for guests). I had a quick look on Google maps, there were 15 hotels within a 50 meter radius of the Tsutenkaku Tower and it takes less than one minute to walk that distance, even at a leisurely pace. But no - instead of coming up with a game plan to fix the problem, they seemed to run like headless chickens down the road in blind panic whilst complaining - it does all come across as quite immature to me. They are the youngest team after all, averaging just 24 years old. Oh dear. These two teams clearly do not cope well under stress. 

Hold on, I need to reevaluate the teams of S37.

I look back at what I wrote last week about the teams for this season and I have changed my minds. The strongest team right now is Jonathan & Ana and even though I clearly don't like Jonathan's behaviour, it is evident that they are the favourite to win this season - this is not a popularity contest. I am still not convinced about Alyssa & Josiah given that Josiah picked the detour based on his interest in wrestling without considering if the task had anything to do with wrestling or not - it didn't. It was yet another memory task about tying an intricate sequences of knots with a long piece of fabric. Another team that I had not talked about much so far are Scott & Lori who currently have a very impressive average of 2.5 after two legs. Look, I had made certain assumptions about them which I don't think are unfair - they have eight children, that means that any kind of foreign holiday would be complex and expensive with that many children. Racers who have travelled a lot (be it for work or holidays) have a big advantage in TAR and I can't imagine Lori has had too many foreign holidays in the last 20 years with that many children to care for. But clearly, they are working well together and have performed very well in this leg - despite arriving on the last flight, they ran a brilliant leg and came in second. I'm now less convinced that Brett & Mark will do that well after their lack of strategic planning at the intersection and likewise, on the surface, Nick & Mike look like a really strong team but statistically, they look pretty bad after leg 2.

Who is going to win the next leg? 

The teams will stay in Japan for the next leg. I'm going to put my personal feelings aside and predict that Jonathan & Ana will continue winning. I have made it clear that I don't like the way Jonathan behaves but they seem to have hit their stride and are performing very well - a lot of it would depend on what kind of tasks await them on their next leg of course. The express pass comes into play and so whichever team that takes the gamble and gets the express pass will win this next leg, it may not be Jonathan & Ana so this next leg will be unpredictable. Since the fast forward does involve a challenge that requires a lot of physical dexterity, maybe Brett & Mark will have what it takes to snatch this fast forward in leg 3 and win this next leg but by that same token, any of the younger, fitter teams stand a really good chance as well.

Who is going to be eliminated next? 

If we're looking at what has happened so far, it has been the oldest racers who have been first to been eliminated and Melinda is still around - the next leg looks quite physical (they have to play a Japanese game called kemari which looks quite difficult)  and the Japanese summer temperatures are unforgiving, so I'm going to predict that it will be Melinda & Erika to go next despite the fact that they are in the middle of the pack for now. The weakest team statistically are Han & Holden - I'm afraid they came across as volatile and immature in this episode, will they crack under pressure next? If so, then Melinda's wisdom may give them the edge. But based on some of the previews I have seen online, it looks like Hans & Holden will survive this next leg in Japan and go onto Indonesia after that, so my money is on Melinda & Erika. 

Who will be my top three in the finals? 

It's a bold move to make this prediction so early in the process, but I am going to say Jonathan & Ana, Carson & Jack and Alyssa & Josiah. Then the two teams with an outside chance of making the finals are Brett & Mark and Scott & Lori. 

Sorry but next week's post will be late! 

Yeah I have a long weekend away, so I'm flying out on Friday, skiing over the weekend and flying back on Monday. I usually watch the episode on Thursday evening here, then spend Friday and Saturday writing the blog post. Thus I will probably watch the next episode before I fly out on Friday but there's just no way I will have enough time to craft a decent blog post before the next episode, so I will only do it when I get back from skiing. So apologies in advance for the late post for episode 3. I'll be flying to Memmingen in Southern Germany and I'm still trying to decide whether to go to a resort within Germany or to cross the border into Austria. In any case, it's going to be a choice between two resorts that I have already been to before, so it's more a question of being able to find somewhere quite close to the resorts to stay for convenience. Please bear with me next week. Okay guys, so that's it from me for this episode, many thanks for reading!