Terrorism: could it happen in Singapore too?

Hello again everyone. Further to my piece on the terrorist attack in Nice, a reader of mine asked me a simple question, "can such an attack happen in Singapore?" Whilst it may be a simple question, there really isn't a simple answer at all. Instead, all I can do is answer that question with a list of factors for you to consider and then you can come to your own conclusion about the likelihood of a major terrorist incident happening in downtown Singapore. How about that?

Could terrorism strike at the heart of Singapore?

1. Has Singapore made any enemies?

Well, most Singaporeans would say no - Singapore does not go out of its way to make enemies. Singapore is a small country and it is important to make friends, not enemies when you are a small country, Singapore does genuinely want to get along with her neighbours and values peace and stability. Or does it? There is a gap between the Singapore government's official stance and what actually happens on the ground in Singapore. Yes Singapore has sent peace keeping forces to various conflict zones around the world, but it is not military involvement in cases like that which will make enemies: rather, it would be individual instances like a Singaporean woman abusing her Indonesian maid that would instantly offend thousands. Indeed, there is a large amount of foreign workers from poorer countries working in Singapore and the way they are treated with disdain from Singaporeans is deplorable - this volatile situation manifested itself in the Little India riots in 2013 and that certainly wouldn't be the last time something like that happens, given how the whole riot was sparked of spontaneously and spiraled out of control, catching everyone by surprise.

So perhaps we should stop looking at Singaporean politicians smartly shaking the hands of other politicians from the region at the Istana and look more closely at what is happening on the ground. Indeed, there's only so much good PR the government can do in terms of forging good foreign relations with Singapore's neighbours if the foreign workers in our midst are treated badly on a daily basis. The kind of casual racism towards these foreign workers has become common place, even acceptable in Singaporean social media - so that is what is going to cause the next major incident like that Little India riots and that's the hardest challenge for the government. After all, they can plan all they want in terms of Singapore's foreign policy - they cannot censor the internet and control what individual Singaporeans say on social media. So by that token, ordinary Singaporeans (rather than the Singapore government) have made plenty of enemies, mostly on the internet and by that same token, a terrorist attack would therefore target ordinary Singaporeans in a crowded place like an MRT station or a shopping mall, rather than a government building.

Verdict:  Yes, you should be very worried. It is impossible to keep track of all the people who hate Singapore online.

Enemies are usually made online in 2016.

2. Who is the enemy? Jemaah Islamiyah - or should we look elsewhere?

All too often, people assume the involvement of radical Islam when it comes to terrorism - this is caused by a number of high profile terrorist incidents which involve Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In Singapore and SE Asia, the local version of that is Jemaah Islamiyah and whilst they are undoubtedly a threat, you would be making a big mistake if you think that they are the only threat you have to worry about. Norway's infamous terrorist killer Anders Breivik killed 77 people and injured 319 in July 2011 - he was a white supremacist who had absolutely nothing to do with Islam. Even when the terrorist is a Muslim, Islam may not play a part in the killing: the killer Omar Mateen at the Orlando Pulse nightclub shooting turned out to be a homosexual who was a regular at the nightclub - he wasn't a Muslim who hated gays because of some religious ideology, rather, he was a very troubled man who couldn't come to terms with his sexuality. Likewise, in the very recent shooting of the police officers in Dallas, again, it was done by a black man extremely angry by the recent spate of police brutality against black people. Islam once again, had nothing to do with his motivation. I could go on listing other terrorists incidents in recent times which have nothing to do with Islam, but you get my point: there are a whole range of reasons that can lead to someone wishing to become a terrorist.

Verdict: Oh dear, the authority should be looking elsewhere indeed - terrorists do not conform to stereotypes.

3. All it takes is an extremely angry person who has nothing to lose.

I would like to use Amos Yee as a case study: he is not a terrorist of course, but a trouble young man who hated the system in Singapore and wanted to draw attention to his cause. We all know what he did of course and really the only person who got hurt in the end was himself - but let me put this to you as a hypothetical question. Imagine a teenager in Singapore, say someone who isn't as articulate as Amos Yee, who wouldn't know how to express his anger in the form of a Youtube video that will get millions of hits in a short period of time. Yet he wanted to get the attention of a lot of people about what he is unhappy about - that would be more than enough to turn this young person into a terrorist. Can something like this happen? Of course it can! I am pretty much describing the classic case of an American high school shooter - there are so many instances of those, so I shall choose to focus on just one famous case: the Columbine High School massacre. On the 20th April 1999, two students launched an elaborate attack of their high school in Colorado involving numerous explosive devices and semi-automatic weapons, killing 13 people and injuring 24.  Again, this attack had absolutely nothing to do with Islam and the two young men behind the attack were simply two very troubled, very angry young people who felt they had nothing left to live for and wanted to make a point.

Remember this guy? How many more like him will there be?

Could a Columbine type attack happen in Singapore? Of course - given the very stressful education system, children are put under so much pressure to perform well that some end up committing suicide. In the case of the notorious Ouyang Xiangyu, she tried to murder her lab partners. Now in the case of the Columbine attack, the two terrorists turned their attention to the very people in their high school whom they resented - but imagine someone in that position may turn their attention to the wider society as a whole and plan a more public attack. Now, imagine a foreign worker who is treated every badly and feels he will not get justice and thus has nothing to lose: oh dear. Guess what? You have both of those individuals in huge quantities in Singapore: very stressed students and a large number of foreign workers working under harsh conditions in Singapore. To make matters far worse, Singaporeans are oblivious about just how much stress they are putting on their students (they just accept it as a fact of life) and most Singaporeans have a very arrogant attitude when it comes to just how badly foreign workers (maids, construction workers, etc) are treated in Singapore. Or what about a middle aged man who has been made redundant and forced to drive a taxi because he cannot find another job? Imagine the intense shame and anger he feels when a former colleague (who he never got along with) gets into his cab. Oh my goodness. In short, Singaporeans are instrumental in creating the very conditions for a terrorist attack in the first place and most of them are oblivious to this fact.

Verdict: Yup, you guys have a huge problem on your hands.

4. How good is policing in Singapore - will they be able to contain an attack?

Now this is a rather complex question - because as much as the Singaporean authorities may be able to respond to an attack, the fact that terrorists will be caught do not usually deter them. Indeed, we could be dealing with suicide bombers who are not afraid to die for their cause, so the threat of being caught is not an issue for them at all. Just this month, we found out that a man could rob a bank in broad daylight in Holland Village then escape to Thailand within hours, that is not reassuring for most Singaporeans. The fact that Singapore has been such a peaceful, safe country all this time means that the authorities cannot even react adequately to something like a robbery due to the lack of experience. You may think that a small country is easy to police and govern, but one fugitive Mas Selamat made the Singaporean police the laughing stock of the world when escaped from detention, launching the biggest manhunt in Singapore's history. He still somehow managed to slip through the net and escaped to Malaysia. This suggests that foreign entities could plan an attack in Singapore and escape within hours of the ensuing chaos - whilst the Holland Village bank robbery was not a case of terrorism, it would only encourage and embolden would-be terrorists thinking about striking a high profile target in somewhere in Singapore, like Holland Village.

Verdict: You decide, you tell me how much faith you have in the Singaporean police after the Holland Village robbery and the notorious case of Mas Selamat giving the police the slip in 2008. So, how safe do you feel in Singapore?

How will the Singapore police react to a terrorist attack?

5. How good is intelligence gathering in Singapore - will they be able to prevent an attack?

Perhaps this is a rather difficult question; after all, as I have explained, it is not necessarily the stereotypical radicalized Muslim terrorist who has joined JI that you have to worry about, but volatile individuals who are so disturbed they resort to terrorism just to make a point. So any kind of intelligence gathering is really mission impossible - this is hindered by our Asian culture which makes certain assumptions about who is more likely to be a criminal and whom are would give the benefit of the doubt to. Ouyang Xiangyu was not just a brilliant student, but a scholar - so there was a sense of disbelief and denial in Singapore when she was accused of murder. Any kind of intelligence gathering in this context would be clouded by a lot of cultural prejudice and this is certainly only going to muddy the waters: after all, as in the case of Ouyang Xiangyu, it proves that even the most brilliant scholars can become so mentally disturbed that they turn to such devious, heinous acts. That effectively makes every very stressed person in Singapore a potential terrorist - oh dear, where do you start looking? How do you start deciding who is going to be a threat and who is not?

Verdict: This is mission impossible for the authorities in Singapore, they cannot possible identify possible terrorists from within and by that token, they cannot prevent an attack of this nature.

6. Can a terrorist get hold of bombs, guns or weapons in Singapore?

Most terrorists will need some kind of weapon to launch an attack and at least by that token, Singapore has very effective gun control (unlike America and other countries), so that is one area that Singaporeans can be less worried about. Or is that the case? The recent attack in Nice is especially worrying because the terrorist didn't try to use bombs to kill individuals - instead, he drove a lorry into a crowd, effectively using an everyday, ordinary vehicle as a weapon of mass killing. During the 9-11 attacks, the hijackers flew the planes directly into the targets, using the plane as a weapon. And if you are determined to build a bomb in Singapore, one can be constructed from ordinary objects that are easily obtained from most hardware stores and all you need to do is Google the instructions. Even in the absence of guns, there are still knife attacks carried out by terrorists and it isn't hard at all to purchase a knife in Singapore. Terrorists can also cause other kinds of disruptions in the form of cyber-attacks and that did happen back in 2013. Terrorists are not stupid, they will find ways to get around the limits of any situation presented to them.

Verdict: Terrorism won't take the form of a mass shooting in Singapore, however it will simply take a different form.

7. Is there anything we can do to prevent this from happening? 

Oh it is one of those 'easier said than done' questions. Treating foreign workers (especially maids and construction workers from neighbouring countries) more fairly and humanely would be a huge step in the right direction. Taking some of the stress out of our pressure-cooker of an education system would help prevent a Columbine-type attack when one of the kids decides enough is enough but instead of quietly committing suicide, s/he decides to kill a whole of of people as well to make a point. But no, getting Singaporean society to change their attitude towards foreign workers is easier said than done because the population is by and large frustrated with the massive influx of foreigners in Singapore, but instead of blaming the government for opening the floodgates, they have misguidedly directed their anger at the foreign workers - creating a very unpleasant atmosphere based on xenophobia and racism. Preventing terrorism from happening would start with removing the root causes of division and strife in our society rather than simply putting armed soldiers or police on the streets of Singapore and whilst it is easy to say what needs to be done, I don't even know where the Singapore government is going to begin to tackle this.

Verdict: Whilst we all know what needs to be done, I'd like to see someone actually try to solve this massive problem.

8. So, if terrorism strikes in Singapore, what will it be like?

We don't know for sure, but all I would say is that conditions are ripe for one of two possible kinds of attacks.

Scenario 1

A disgruntled foreign worker (from somewhere like India, Bangladesh, Philippines, Myanmar etc) getting so fed up after witnessing a lot of abuse at work (workers being bullied by Singaporeans, denied pay, denied medical attention, colleagues being mistreated by a Singaporean headman etc), but he puts up with all this abuse for years whilst biting his lip. Then one day, a dumb Singaporean kid makes a disparaging, racist remark about him on the train within earshot, this is the last straw that breaks the camel's back. Quite by chance, this foreign worker is working on a project in a bus depot that day and he decides to sabotage the brakes of a bus there. Even though he didn't plan to do this, the opportunity presented itself when he realized no one was looking and he did it on an impulse, on the spur of the moment. The brakes of the bus then fails a few hours later and the bus crashes into a crowded bus stop, killing a huge number of people (similar to what happened in Nice). The accident is blamed on poor maintenance but no one even suspects sabotage or terrorism. The disgruntled foreign worker turned terrorist returns to work the next day and doesn't say a word to anyone. His colleagues say to him, "have you heard about the terrible accident that happened yesterday? Now they are going to blame us for poor maintenance!" He merely shakes his head and pretends he has no idea - no one suspects him and he goes back to his job, even he is very surprised he got away with what he did.

What is going on in a terrorist's mind?

Scenario 2

Let's imagine there's a very stressed student called Cheng, he is an only child and his parents have made huge sacrifices for Cheng to have the best that money can buy - all that they ask of him are good results, that he is a good boy who studies hard. Cheng isn't naturally intelligent, but with a lot of hard work still manages to produce above average results most of the time. Still, he manages to get into a very prestigious course at NUS but finds it a real struggle to keep up with the brighter students there. As he approaches his final exams, he knows he is probably going to fail and he tries to cheat in the exam. Things get from bad to worse for him as he is caught cheating red handed and is told he is probably going to be expelled. Cheng is filled with a huge sense of betrayal and anger towards everyone from his parents to his brighter classmates to his teachers. His parents don't make things any easier for him as they scream at him for letting them down and disgracing the family. Unable to cope with the consequences of his actions, he plans an Ouyang Xiangyu style attack whereby he gets a part time job in a busy Starbucks downtown and one day, poisons the milk there - so that everyone who gets a drink containing milk will be ingesting an odourless, tasteless poison that will kill them within a few hours. By the time the hospitals realize that the mass poisoning is traced back to that branch of Starbucks, Cheng has already drank a cup of that poisoned milk and is found dead in an alleyway nearby, but not before a huge number of people were randomly poisoned and killed by Cheng that day.

The point I want to make with these two hypothetical scenarios is that in both cases, both terrorists acted alone - without being radicalized, without any third party help, without giving any clues about what they were up to. It is easy to deal with the terrorists who fit the stereotype of what we expect a terrorist to be, but people like Cheng in scenario 2 are the ones you least expect to become terrorist because they look so incredibly ordinary and law-abiding in their everyday lives. So what do you think? Do you agree with my analysis or do you think that I am too pessimistic? What other steps can be taken to prevent terrorism in Singapore? How likely is a major terrorist incident in Singapore? Are you worried or afraid about terrorism? Leave a comment below please and let's talk about it. Many thanks for reading.