Alvin Tan & the gutter press in Malaysia & Singapore

Hi everyone. I have had a spike of traffic to my blog in the last 48 hours from people who are hoping to get more information about Alvin Tan's whereabouts and I noticed something else today that has left me feeling both angry and disgusted. In an online news report of the Malaysian newspaper The Star, it was claimed:

The two – famously known as the Alivivi pair – still face two charges under the Film Censorship Act and Sedition Act for a “Ramadan greeting” that was posted on their blog last year. The posting contained the words Selamat Berbuka Puasa (dengan bak kut teh... wangi, enak, menyelerakan) and was placed over their pornographic images.

Cue #faceplam. WTF. Good grief, alamak. This mistake was also printed on AsiaOne (part of SPH). The first rule of journalism is to get your facts right and then double check it, then the editor's job is to edit and check if the journalist has made any mistakes. In this case, both the journalist and the editor at The Star have made a huge mistake - the paragraph above is factually wrong. The controversial Ramadan greeting was placed over a picture of Alvin and Vivian eating Bakuteh (pork rib soup), not their pornographic images. Click here for a link to that image in question - the offensive nature of that photo was their choice in using a pork dish in that greeting, it had absolutely nothing to do with pornography and you can clearly see that they are both fully clothed in that photo.

It is pathetic that a major Malaysian newspaper can make such mistakes, where is the quality control? How can a mistake like that slip through the net? What are the editors there for? And how can it be, that someone like me, sitting eight time zones away in London, can actually know more about the details of this case than the journalist in KL covering this case? It does show you how awful the disgraceful gutter press is in Malaysia,  it demonstrates why Alvin has lost all faith in the Malaysian system and why he would not receive a fair trial in Malaysia if even the press are making up bullshit about him like that. I certainly do not believe Alvin Tan will ever get a fair trial in Malaysia.

Can Alvin get a fair trial in Malaysia? I doubt it. 

Yes I am Alvin's friend, I have corresponded with him for my blog and he is a faithful reader of my blog. And even if I knew where Alvin was, I would not tell you because he needs to lie low for now. The last thing I would want to do is to give the Malaysian authorities any help in their hunt for him. But let's pretend I don't know Alvin, what could he do now that he has managed to leave Malaysia? And no, he is not in Singapore - it's too small, there's nowhere to hide and lie low and besides if he was caught in Singapore, he would be extradited back to Malaysia in a heartbeat. Singapore is not a safe place for a fugitive. He basically has two options once he makes it to another country.

Option 1: Lie low, assume a new identity

There is a huge market in fake identities - I have been warned to be very careful when I am traveling as I have a UK passport and I look Chinese. Such a passport would allow an East Asian man in his 30s to travel around the world with ease as long as he looks like me - let's face it, people rarely check passports too carefully. My hair was a lot longer in my passport photo but no one ever bats an eyelid when checking my passport especially when the passport is busy and crowded. During the investigations of the missing MH370 plane, it was revealed that two Iranians traveled on stolen passports but they got through immigration control at KLIA with no problems whatsoever when they boarded MH370.

There is a black market for stolen passports.

It won't be hard for Alvin to obtain a stolen passport like that in a place like Bangkok (where the two Iranians got their stolen passports) and that would allow him to assume a brand new identity in another country. Of course, a European or American passport would cost the most as it would allow him direct passage to the West, no questions asked and he could get off the plane and start a brand new life under his new identity. But can he get hold of a European or American passport of a Chinese-looking citizen? That's very difficult to get hold of (and that's why I have to be so very careful with mine). A Chinese passport would be the cheapest as it is as useless as a North Korean passport - both passports would allow you visa-free access to only 41 countries (compared to an American or British passport that can get you access to 168 countries visa-free or a Japanese passport for 165 countries).

But if Alvin got himself a Japanese passport on the black market - questions would be raised if anyone ever asked why this person with a Japanese passport and a Japanese name can't speak Japanese? Or even if he does learn Japanese, he would struggle to sound like a native Japanese person. So a Japanese passport is probably not the best option for him. The best option would be a stolen Singaporean passport - Singaporeans enjoy visa-free access to 160 countries and Alvin has lived in Singapore for many years as a scholar: he knows Singaporean culture very well and can easily pass as a Singaporean. The question is whether or not he can get hold of a Singaporean passport of a Chinese-Singaporean around his age (26) - it probably isn't that hard if he looks in the right place. Bangkok, Phuket or Bali would be a good place to start, plenty of Singaporeans go there on holiday, get drunk and lose their passports.

Alvin could easily assume a brand new identity.

With that Singaporean passport, he could not live in Singapore - he is too well known to try to start a new life in Singapore, but it would at least allow him the chance to move around the world with ease in search of new opportunities to settle down and start a new life. It is hardly an ideal solution - but it will buy him time. I would refer you the notorious English criminal Bruce Reynolds - he was wanted by the British police as he masterminded the 1963 Great Train Robbery - at the time it was Britain's biggest ever robbery (£2.6 million, the equivalent of £41 million in today's money). After the robbery, Reynolds hid in Mexico under a new identity and a false passport. He then moved from Mexico to Canada to France and even back to the UK under a series of false identities and was a master of disguises - he was arrested 5 years later when he made the mistake of making contact with his old friends back in London.

Okay, this may be a rather old case but we can still learn a few lessons from the case study of Bruce Reynolds. Firstly, yes it is possible to disappear halfway around the world and assume a new identity - but you will face huge challenges in terms of making sure you have a constant stream of income. Reynolds had a considerable amount of money from the train robbery which sustained him for a few years, Alvin doesn't have a huge pile of money with him - he would have to find paid employment in order to sustain himself if he wants to start a new life in another country. Reynolds was forced to leave Canada as his attempt at another robbery in Canada was foiled by the Canadian police there; thus Alvin would have to lie very, very low and not draw any attention to himself should he want to start a new life.

How will Alvin sustain himself once he starts a new life?

Secondly, Reynolds was caught because he made contact with his old friends back in London - now his old friends were also criminals that the police in London were watching carefully so it wasn't long before they figured out where Reynolds was and arrested him. Alvin cannot make the same mistake - he has family and friends back in KL and he should not make any contact with them. It can be extremely hard for him as this is his family we're talking about but they would be watched very, very closely by the Malaysian police who are hoping for a lead - and all it takes is an email or phone call for them to intercept and uncover his current whereabouts. Any kind of communication to his family would certainly have to be conducted via third party, away from the police and that's not going to be easy.

Currently Alvin's mother, lawyer and Vivian all deny knowing where he is and even if they are indeed telling the truth, the police would still be watching them very carefully because their best chances of tracking Alvin down is if he makes contact with one of them. Reynolds made contact with his old friends five years after the robbery and that still led to his arrest - how long can Alvin resist contacting his old friends and family? How closely are the Malaysian authorities watching Alvin's mother and lawyer - would they go as far as to tap her phone and issue a search warrant to search the family home? Just how far would they go if they suspect that his parents do know where he is today?

The Malaysian authorities have no idea where Alvin Tan is.

Of course, all this depends so much on how well Alvin adapts to his new life abroad - if he manages to settle in, get work and start dating, then at least he would be able to start afresh and chances are, you will never hear of Alvin Tan again. But if he struggles to adapt to life abroad and runs out of money or runs into trouble, then like Reynolds, he would start missing his old life in KL and reach out to loved ones there - a mistakes that may eventually lead to his arrest. We don't know what would happen - what I do know is that he is a bright, resourceful young man who is capable of adapting to new environments and he has a keen mind for business. What I do worry about however, is his rather big ego - he has never been known for lying low or keeping his mouth shut. He likes attention and got into trouble for his big mouth in the first place, can a leopard change his spots? We shall see. Fugitives do exist in the real world.

Option 2: Political asylum/refugee status

This is a viable and much better option. Alvin would have to prove that he has no chance of getting a fair trial in Malaysia and he does have an above average chance of proving that. This is tactic that he would have to work on carefully - I don't know how Alvin would have executed this plan but this is how I would have advised him to do it. Firstly, he needs a legal expert who has dealt with similar cases in the past to help him figure out where his best chances are - some countries would be a lot more sympathetic to his case than others. Secondly, his legal expert would then initiate contact with the relevant authorities in these countries and this legal expert ought to be able to get an initial response out of them which could be one of the following:

A) Yes, definitely, he has a strong case. Send him round ASAP.
B) Oh I'm not sure, it depends and we already have so many other refugees from places like Syria and Iraq who take priority as they are genuinely fleeing a war zone. He may have a case but I'm not sure if it is not strong enough.
C) Sorry no, don't waste your time with us, try (insert name of country) instead. They're more likely to be sympathetic.

Some countries would be more sympathetic than others to Tan.

The beauty of this route is that the right legal expert will do all the hard work for you, he will be able to narrow down at least two countries that would have responded favourably (option A) and Alvin would then be able to choose which country he wants to go to. The country which does grant Alvin Tan asylum would risk incurring the wrath of the Malaysian government (and ordinary Malaysians alike) - but as seen from a recent case in Sweden where a Malaysian couple were jailed for abusing their children, some countries like Sweden don't give a hoot about pissing Malaysia off whilst others like Singapore are very keen on maintaining good relations with the government in KL. Once he has been granted asylum, Alvin's family would then at least be able to visit him with ease, knowing he is safely out of reach of the Malaysian legal system as long as he never sets foot in Malaysia ever again.

If this is the route that Alvin has chosen, no doubt he would already be in a country willing to offer him asylum and these processes take a while - in the meantime, he would be advised to lie low, not give any interviews and keep his mouth shut until the paperwork is complete and he is guaranteed asylum status in this country. Right now, he is still a Malaysian fugitive abroad and it would not serve him well at all should he open his mouth. Certainly, his legal expert would have told him to lie low and avoid social media, even avoid contacting his family back in KL at least until his asylum status is confirmed. So this will mean radio silence from Alvin Tan for the next few months at least.

Would another country show Tan mercy?

So which option is better?

Undoubtedly, option 2 is much better as it allows him a viable, legal route to gain residency in another country - but it is also the harder route as it depends entirely on a country saying, "yes fine, we are sympathetic to your situation. Yes we will grant you asylum and face the wrath of the Malaysian government when they find out." There is no guarantee that such a country exists and Alvin could have paid a legal expert a lot of money only for the legal expert to turn around and say, "I'm sorry, I tried every country and they all said no to your case unfortunately. I'm afraid I really can't help you - but here is my bill for my time, please let me know how you wish to pay." That is the worst case scenario.

Option 1 is always possible, but you would have to spend at least the first few years constantly looking over your shoulder, wondering if anyone might figure out your real identity. After all, option 1 is illegal - you are breaking the law, this is called identity theft and if caught, you could get into a lot of trouble and no doubt face expulsion from the country and extradition. This option would almost certainly be a second choice, a last resort only if the option of gaining asylum in a sympathetic country is not possible. At this point, allow me to make a disclaimer: this merely reflects the advice I would offer Alvin as a friend - I am not a legal expert on cases like that and no doubt he would have sought the advice of a legal expert who would have told him what his best options are and what he ought to do next.

So no, don't expect to hear from him anytime soon. He is lying very low for now. Do let me know your thoughts on the issue, please feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below - many thanks for reading.