Pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine have been the only ones using land to air missiles to shoot down planes - just a day ago, a Ukrainian Air Force jet was shot down by a Russian missile and pro-Russian rebels have claimed responsibility for shooting down two other Ukrainian Sukhoi-25 jets. Already, there is a precedent this week set in this region of the rebels shooting down planes in the Eastern Ukraine region. The pro-Kiev Ukrainian forces on the other hand have not been using such missiles to target planes as the pro-Russian rebels simply do not have any planes to conduct their warfare. This region has been in conflict since this spring and things are set to get a lot worse.
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| Part of the debris from MH17 |
The MH17 plane was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air missile (click here for a description on the BBC website) and when a plane is flying at 10,000 m, the radar system on the Buk system cannot distinguish what kind of aircraft it is or the nature of the plane - it is a far more basic radar system that simply locates that target. What probably happened is this: the rebels were looking for their next plane to shoot down and when MH17 appeared, they fired a missile at it, mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane (an AN-26 transport plane) but they only realized their mistake when the debris hit the ground.
Is such a mistake possible? Could the rebels not distinguish a civilian plane from a military plane? Even with far more sophisticated equipment, similar mistakes could be made - as in the case of Iran Air 655 shot down by the Americans who mistook it for a hostile enemy F14 Tomcat Fighter. In that case, 290 people died. The Americans made a terrible, tragic mistake with deadly consequences despite having what was then state of the art radar equipment onboard USS Vincennes. Thus in the case of MH17, we're talking about a volatile war zone situation where tensions are very high and the rebels had probably moments to decide if the incoming aircraft was hostile or not. Don't forget, the Ukrainian air force has been responsible for air strikes in Eastern Ukraine just 2 days ago, killing 11 - so further Ukrainian air strikes were a very plausible threat, so we're talking about a very dangerous and volatile war zone here.
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| Should MH17 have been flying over Eastern Ukraine? |
Should MH17 have been flying over a "hot zone" - an area where there is a war going on? In hindsight, clearly not - but there were two other planes flying in the same area when MH17 went down, including a Singapore Airlines and an Air India plane. In fact SQ351 was approximately 25 km away when this tragedy happened, so it could have easily have been SQ351 that got shot down instead under these circumstances. Many European airlines have already chosen to avoid flying over this conflict zone in Eastern Ukraine and certainly at least in the coming days, no airline would dare to go near Eastern Ukraine. Why would commercial airlines take such risks flying over war zones just to save a bit of money by taking the most direct route? This is based on the assumption that at 10,000 m, the plane is too high in the sky, away from anything that may be going on at ground level, thus it is relatively safe. Furthermore, most ground to air missiles would not be able to blast an aircraft cruising at 10,000 m out of the sky just like that - the threat is greatest during the take-off and landing of the plane, that's when it's most vulnerable to ground to air missiles.
Who is to be blamed for this? Firstly, I would say the Russians - namely, Putin. He is a bloodthirsty murderer and tyrant who doesn't care what may happen in Eastern Ukraine as long as he can use that conflict to distract the Russians from domestic problems in Russia. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine have been using Russian-supplied weapons and we are witnessing are the deadly consequences of giving them all these weapons. Secondly, Malaysian Airlines have a lot to answer for - they should have never been taking that route over Eastern Ukraine. Of course, hindsight is 2020 and it is very sad that it takes an tragedy like this for airlines to wake up to the dangers of flying over war zones. You would have thought that Malaysian Airlines would exercise caution after what happened earlier this year with MH370.
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| MAS still hasn't recovered from MH370. |
What pisses me off the most is the way Russian people (and other pro-Russian idiots) have flooded social media with conspiracy theories about who is responsible for the shooting down of MH17 - these theories are so bloody stupid they are not worth me repeating here and you know it's written by a Russian because the English is usually terrible. But even if we find out who shot down the plane, there are still many more questions to be answered. Will the West finally intervene in this conflict in Ukraine? Will Russia annex Eastern Ukraine the way they have annexed Crimea? Will Malaysian Airlines survive two tragedies in such a short space of time? Will anyone ever be brought to justice for this hideous mass murder? I don't have all the answers, but I am certainly not going to beat around the bush - I am going to blame Russia for the deaths of 298 innocent people on MH17. Do let me know what your thoughts are on the issue. If you are going traveling soon, I hope you have a safe journey. Thanks for reading.
PS. Sigh, I was going to announce that I am off on holidays next week to Northern Greece and Southern Albania - but after the awful news today of MH17, I am suddenly not quite in holiday mode. I'm just sad and angry now.
MAS will always survive.. government will always bail them out.. Anyway just wanted to add, there are 3 international routes to fly, the other two routes had some bad storms thats why the planes (MAS and SQ) avoided those routes and flew over Ukraine. It is just unlucky that it happens to the MAS flight
ReplyDeleteWell, they may become a lot more local, plying local SE Asian routes. Certainly after MH370 and MH17, their international routes would definitely suffer.
DeleteMalaysian Airlines is having a very swey year. Speechless.
ReplyDeleteIt could have been any of a number of planes who were reckless enough to fly over that part of Eastern Ukraine - it could have been a Singapore Airlines plane (there was one just 25 km away, in that war zone). Aiyoh.
DeleteDi - I've added you on FB :) Found you easily enough :)
DeleteSo glad. Have a safe trip.
DeleteRight now, the worst kind of injustice that can happen to the victims is the deliberate attempt to destroy the integrity of the investigation. There are rumors that the plane's black box may have already been recovered and taken to Moscow. If that is true, the investigation would likely be inconclusive and probable outcome being a blame game with either sides continuing pointing fingers at the other. While this happens, relatives of the victims will have to endure the agony of never knowing what really happen to their loved ones.
ReplyDeleteAlveenoo, it's pretty obvious what happened.
Delete1. The Russians gave the rebels some Buk missiles.
2. The rebels mistook MH17 as a Ukrainian transport plane.
3. They shot it down.
That is pretty much what happened - given how the crime scene is in rebel territories, you're unlikely to get a conclusive investigation, but the relatives of the victim have little doubt what happened and how it transpired. The injustice is that the person responsible is unlikely to face any punishment for this terrible mass murder.
It's funny because there's a Russian acquaintance of mine who's insisting that "there is no conflict in Ukraine." I couldn't stop laughing.at his denials:
Delete"I wouldn't be so fast as to judge the country by 'reports' in the media. Just for example - the crap you're seeing on tv about Russia invading Ukraine... Well let's just say that one of our offices is in Ukraine and no one there has seen any tanks or Russian troops marching thru the city. In fact they just had a marathon for children going in the city with over 15'000 children taking part, one wouldn't imagine this happening in a warzone right? Probably because there is no warzone or invasion to begin with."
"If you believe even half of what the media feeds you with - you are no better than the very masses you question in your posts every other day. Just the same as religious followers disregard everything and keep chanting that homosexuality is evil or a sickness - you chant what the media shoves in your face without any regard for the reality of the situation, just the same you pass your judgement on an entire country based on a couple of intentionally skewed media reports. So is that really 'well done Russians' or is it well done to you?"
That guy might as well deny that the Holocaust even happened.
In any case, my sources from my brief stay in IISS gave me this account:
1. The rebels captured a Ukrainian AA base earlier in June: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262
2. The Russians most likely provided training to the rebels to use it. It's impossible to use it properly or to hope to even hit something if the operator is untrained. It also takes a lot of effort and specialized skills to override failsafes like IFF (identification friend or foe) and the multiple confirmations needed between operators and commander to mutually recognize the aircraft they're firing at before the payload can even be launched.
3. The training was likely to have been insufficient since they've had prior successes in shooting down Ukrainian aircraft, but did not have sufficient experience or training to differentiate the radar cross sections between a Boeing 777 and an An-26. The An-26 is smaller than the 777, and travels much slower than it. The rebels probably made the wrong call due to inexperience and took down the civilian flight.
While it sucks that this happened, I don't think the perpetrators will be brought to justice. The International Court of Justice is worthless, the worst the UN can do is to write a harshly-worded letter and none of the civilized nations have the political will to do anything with military options.
Davin, whilst you and I agree totally with your account of the events above, there will be bloody idiots who will claim "prove it, supply me with concrete evidence to prove your version of events" - and some of it is circumstantial at best but anyone who has any knowledge of the crisis will know it is true.
DeleteI have found the most unlikely supporters of conspiracy theories amongst my FB friends and I just have to lay off FB for a while because I just wanna unfriend so many people right now...
Haha, replace them with me on FB!
DeleteBoleh! How can I find you there?
DeleteDavin, I have found u on FB and sent you a message on FB as I cannot add you - your privacy settings are just way too high and I cannot add you as a friend as we don't have mutual friends. Go look at your FB messages.
DeleteAlex, I want to let you know the death toll is 298.
ReplyDeleteI am supposed to fly MH next week but my colleague who is flying with me insisted a swap to SQ. The company finance controller who is woman and paranoid too agreed and now company has to pay extra $200 for each of us. I don't mind MH as I also got fiends who died in SQ006 in Taiwan and SilkAir (SQ owned). My point is all these paranoid switching of airline is frivolous. If you look into it MH and SQ planes are technically equally well maintained as they use the same MRO company. Both were also flying over Ukraine so nothing could have saved you other than your luck. People's memory are just too short and ignorant. I guess one airline's misfortune is another's gain.
Initial reports did put the death toll at 295, it was then revised up to 298. I have since amended the article.
DeleteYou're right, SQ was also flying over the same area, so there are many questions to be asked about why the hell any airline was flying over a war zone in the first place.
Not many questions, really. This guy sums it up well. http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/18/mh-17-route-to-malaysia/
DeleteHindsight is 2020. We can justify the flight path till the cows come home but nothing is going to change the fact that 298 have died and it could have been prevented should the plane have taken a different route.
DeleteI rather hope this is simple enough to explain why to you. Certainly the title is. http://www.wired.com/2014/07/why-planes-fly-over-ukraine/
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