Average ranking after leg 5 of TAR Oz S4
Tom & Tyler: 1.2
Hayley & Mikayla: 3.8
Jasmine & Jerome: 4
Viv & Joey: 4
Tim & Rod: 4.2
Sid & Ash: 5.8
Femi & Nick: 6.4
Chris & Adrienne: 7 (eliminated in Gobi Gurvansaikhan National Park)
So whilst we finally saw one other team apart from Tom & Tyler win a leg, let's not forget that they won by a split second and the average rankings reveal that Tom & Tyler certainly are still in a class of their own, whilst there is a pack of teams in the middle with a ranking ranging from 3.8 to 4.3 and then there are the two weakest teams with a much poorer ranking at the back of the pack. It was hardly surprising that the team that was statistically the weakest got eliminated - the teams didn't conspire to try to get rid of a stronger opponent and instead chose to simply let the law of natural selection cull the weaker teams first. We have to go back to TAR US S29 E3 for a seemingly strong team (Seth & Olive) to be eliminated very early in the process despite having won a leg. I wonder if the teams in this season realize just how strong Tom & Tyler are and if they will simply let them waltz their way to victory this leg, or if they will start to gang up against our golden boys. Hence for Sid & Ash to bitch endlessly about Hayley & Mikayla on this leg over the taxi, they just completely lost focus on whom the biggest threat is in this process. Are they all so oblivious to Tom & Tyler's threat?
Let's talk about altitude sickness.
Good grief. Ulaanbaatar sits at 1,350 meters above sea level. You do NOT get altitude sickness at that altitude. A tiny percentage of people will start to experience symptoms at 2,500 meters but we're talking like less than 5%. The higher we go, the more people will be affected. Back in August, I crossed from Argentina to Chile at the Los Libertadores pass which was at 3,200 meters and yes there were all these signs at the border crossing about what to do if you experienced altitude sickness, but then again, nobody on my bus were complaining of feeling unwell because even at that altitude, we're talking about like 20% or so of people being affected. The higher you ascend, the more people will succumb to altitude sickness - by the time you reach like 5,000 to 6,000 meters then virtually 100% is affected. I've been up much higher before, to over 5,200 meters and even then, at that altitude, it was more the cold and the biting wind that was affecting me, rather than altitude sickness per se. However, if you made me run up 300 steps whilst carrying a heavy bag, then I would be out of breath even at sea level because that is a tiring task. So in short, someone from production gave Beau a total piece of bullshit about altitude sickness and he just repeated the rubbish without even checking. Altitude sickness affects some people but not others - some people will start to feel unwell at 2,500 meters whilst others are totally fine at 4,500 meters. But the possibility of anyone feeling unwell at just 1,350 meters is just ridiculous, it doesn't happen that low down. It might have been the highly polluted air in Ulaanbaatar - like many other cities in Asia, they have huge problems with air pollution. Just because you're out of breath doesn't mean you have altitude sickness.
The taxi drivers in Ulaanbaatar were pretty impressive in spite of the language barrier.
I am amazed the teams didn't have more trouble with the taxis in Mongolia for there is a massive language barrier there. For a long time, English isn't the second language in Mongolia - it is Russian! It was the result of the political situation for many years there - they hate the Chinese so they will never learn Mandarin, they are surrounded to the North entirely by Russia and Mongolia had always had much better relations with the USSR and Russia compared to China. They hate the Chinese for having snatched vast swathes of land from them, there's an autonomous region in China called Inner Mongolia where the majority of the people there are ethnic Mongolians but it is somehow a part of China today. So for a long time, by default, the second language taught at school is Russian and I have been able to communicate with older Mongolians in Russian in the past. Their relationship with Russia has been so close that Mongolia has abandoned their traditional script and modern Mongolian is now written in the Cyrillic script, just like in Russian. It is only the younger generation who have only started learning English instead of Russian as the second language, so you're far more likely to be able to communicate with your taxi driver in Mongolia in Russian than English. But yet somehow, none of the teams got hopelessly lost with the taxis in Ulaanbaatar and let's not forget that the truly horrible experience poor Viv & Joey had in the previous leg in Vietnam with their taxi driver despite Joey being able to speak Vietnamese fluently. Well go figure!
Where did it all go wrong for Chris & Adrienne?
Yes I know they didn't finish the leg and got eliminated as a result of Chris' fall from the camel but things had gone very wrong much earlier at the Gandan monastery. We have already seen one counting task this season in E2 back in Seoul, but in Chris & Adrienne totally got flustered at the monastery, dropping from second to last place over a simple counting challenge. If they had kept their cool at the monastery, then perhaps they wouldn't have been in such a hurry with the camel and they could have stayed in the race given how Viv & Joey were clearly very lost and had taken a very long route to get to the pit stop. But such is the nature of working with animals on TAR, they are unpredictable and many the hardcore fans will remember how Rupert & Laura from TAR US S31 got eliminated in Luang Prabang, Laos after Rupert's elephant simply refused to follow any instructions. Such is the nature of working with animals - your fate is in their hands. You've got to feel bad for Chris though, that fall off the camel looked pretty brutal and having broken a rib before in the gym, I can totally relate to his injury, especially the bit when he said, "don't make me laugh." And I said, yup, I have been there and done that too. Mind you, there's so little a doctor can do for a broken rib, short of putting your whole torso in a cast. I know he was in pain, but could Chris have struggled back onto the camel and just hung on for a few minutes till they got to the pit stop? And even if they did do that, how would they fare on the next leg with that injury?
Let's talk about Femi & Nick
I was all ready to write these guys off after narrowly escaping elimination twice, but they shocked me by actually coming quite close to winning this leg. Well actually, they threw away a massive lead by walking in the wrong direction on the way to the pit stop, only to have to make up for that with Femi running like Usain Bolt through the desert, overtaking the other two teams only to trip, agonizingly close to the finish line and thus had to settle for third - their best ever finish so far but good grief, it could have been first if they knew how to read a compass. This isn't the first time they had navigation problems - they struggled to find their way in both South Korea and Vietnam, whilst it is clear that they are physically very strong, they do seem to be directionally challenged at the best of times. Looking at the statistics, they are still by far the weakest team after the elimination of Chris & Adrienne. Are they learning important lessons about what they need to do in order to avoid silly mistakes? I don't think so - they were so excited about being in the lead that they charged off with their camel into the desert in the completely wrong direction instead of taking a moment to figure out how they were going to navigate with the compass. There were some very physical tasks like sprinting up to the monument and herding the goats that really favoured them in this leg, but I am worried that the moment they need to do any kind of map reading or navigation again, they will be in trouble. You can't afford any weaknesses like that when you're up against Tom & Tyler.
How bad is the fermented horse milk?
Oh yes, fermented horse milk, otherwise known as Airag in Mongolian and Kumis in Kazakh and Russian. It is a traditional drink from that part of central Asia and given that it is way too cold to have cows there, milk from other animals like camels, goats and of course, horse is commonly consumed. Fermenting it was simply a way to prolong the shelf life of horse's milk before the advent of modern packaging and refrigeration. The fermentation produces some bubbles in the milk and there's that alcoholic task - let's just say it is at best an acquired test that most Australians would not have encountered before. It is a very traditional Mongolian drink, so thumbs up for choosing something like that to introduce to the audience, but goodness me, that does look like a rather large bowl - I am sure some of you would be reminded of the evil eating challenge in Ninh Binh Vietnam where some teams had to eat an insane number of rice cakes. Anyway, here's a cute Youtube video to give you a better idea of what this drink is like: it sounds kinda vile but I am still curious about it.
What about Jasmine & Jerome's victory in this leg?
Oh I did not expect that, I was most pleasantly surprised. In fact, they did choose the wrong detour - the herding side of the detour was always going to be more skill based but those with the right skills would be rewarded. Milking was the slow and steady alternative for those who didn't feel up for the more physical, skill-based challenge. However, anyone who has done their homework with TAR challenges will know that any kind of milking challenge is always a lot harder than it looks - cast your minds back to TAR US S16 E2 when one member of the team had to get a cup of milk from the cows, quite a few contestants got kicked by the cows because the cows were frightened. Granted that goats won't kick like cows, it is still a painfully slow process if you're not familiar with the milking process. I thought there was no way they could have won this leg after having wasted an hour trying to milk the goat - but then the two other teams on the first bus were also having a tough time: both Femi & Nick and Viv & Joey got hopelessly lost in the desert - mind you, Viv & Joey left the detour in third place so they were even more lost than Femi & Nick! Tom & Tyler made up precious time on the detour despite having arrived on the second bus, but luck just wasn't on their side in this leg, showing us that the golden boys are human after all. And thank goodness for that, don't get me wrong - I like them but it would be a pretty boring season if they were so invincible that the result would be a forgone conclusion at this stage! Hopefully this result will give other teams a bit more confidence as well that they can actually win the race, that Tom & Tyler are only human after all.
Did Hayley & Mikayla steal Sid & Ash's taxi?
Yes, I think they did - or at least that was the impression I got from watching the scene again. It might have been a complete coincidence of course but again, what they did wasn't against the rules. If Sid wasn't penalized for stealing the nuns' dumpling, then certainly you can't fault Hayley & Mikayla for what they did. After all, the taxi did stop right in front of them rather than Sid & Ash. But like I said, I think Sid & Ash definitely took their eye off the ball by focusing on Hayley & Mikayla who struggled through this leg finishing at the back of the pack in 6th. There's really only one team you need to focus on taking out of this game and that's Tom & Tyler. I note that Sid & Ash didn't get any help at all from Tim & Rod in this leg, I wonder why they didn't work together in the monastery to count the prayer wheels together? Certainly, Tim & Rod got out of the monastery in 6th place whilst Sid & Ash were in 7th - they didn't work together and ended up on the last bus together. What happened to this alliance then? I thought they looked pretty chummy working together in the last leg in Vietnam? Has it finally dawned on Tim & Rod to ditch these two at last? Why didn't Sid & Ash just ask them for help then, given how they really struggled with the last counting challenge in Seoul in leg 2? Speaking of Tim & Rod, why did they choose the milking detour when they were so strong and could have easily performed the other one so much quicker? Look, I am sure they are really nice guys but they seem fairly clueless about playing to their strength on TAR.
And a new alliance is formed!
But how long would it last? Sparks are definitely flying between Tom & Tyler and Hayley & Mikayla - now I am not sure how much of this is strategic game play and how much of it is genuine, but a little romance always makes reality TV programmes far more interesting. Despite having run a disappointing leg in Mongolia, Hayley & Mikayla are still statistically the second strongest team. Their poor performance in this leg was mostly due to how long they took on the herding challenge and perhaps being stuck with a somewhat slow camel on the way to the pit stop. So it makes little sense for Tom & Tyler to want an alliance with a strong team - traditionally, what Tom & Tyler ought to have done was to gang up with a weaker team like Tim & Rod or Sid & Ash to try to get rid of a stronger team like Hayley & Mikayla or Jasmine & Jerome. But no, I think there's genuinely a lot of goodwill and friendship between these two teams, I wouldn't go as far as to use the word romance but hey, finding romance on TAR is nothing new. Remember the romance between Blair and Brodie (ie. "Blodie") from TAR US 28? Well, it was just a minor side story in that season as the romance didn't really turn into any kind of real alliance, with both teams eliminated in the middle of the season, failing to reach the final. Now it would be interesting to see in this season if Hayley & Mikayla could get some more help from Tom & Tyler to do a bit better in the next leg because after the rather dismal performance in this leg, they certainly could do with some help!
Who will be eliminated next in Mongolia?
Oh this will be a tough one - statistically, the two weakest teams at the moment performed pretty well in this leg: Femi & Nick nearly won this leg and Sid & Ash came in a respectable fourth. Nonetheless, those two are still the two weakest teams at this stage. We did see Viv & Joey really struggle with navigation in this leg - they had a tough time in the last leg too but that was mostly down to a bad taxi driver, but in this leg this unfortunately was totally their fault. It was only Chris' unfortunate fall from the camel that saved Viv & Joey from last place despite their navigation woes. Furthermore, let's not forget Tim & Rod as well - they have been cruising along in the middle of the pack, that means they don't have a target on their backs for the next U-turn but I am not convinced they are going to stick around much longer. They are very nice guys who are physically very fit, yet they don't seem to understand the strategy of how TAR works. Since it is so hard to pick one team out of these four, I am going to default to the fact that the teams will depart in the order they arrived, so Viv & Joey will have an uphill struggle to catch up in the next leg and that would be the basis for my guess that they will be eliminated next but really, at this stage, the weakest teams are all gone already and so that makes this kind of prediction far harder. I dreaded having to make that prediction as I really like Viv & Joey, but sadly the odds are now against them.
Who will win in the next leg then?
Well, looking at the statistics, it is most probable that Tom & Tyler will win again and that would come as no surprise. But the winners of this leg, Jasmine & Jerome have proven that are more than capable of rising to the top and beating Tom & Tyler. The trailer for the next episode seems to suggest that Tom & Tyler are going to struggle in the next leg in a wrestling challenge, but heck, these two can afford to make a few mistakes and somehow still wriggle their way to the front of the pack regardless as they have done so far. I really doubt that Tom & Tyler would be eliminated in the next leg (as the trailer suggests), for that would be a major spoiler, I just don't see it happening. But since the hint in the trailer was less than subtle, I am going to predict that Jasmine & Jerome will continue their winning streak in Mongolia by winning the next leg, though I think Tom & Tyler will probably win again and that trailer might be deliberately trying to confuse us. It seemed to suggest that Sid & Ash will win some challenge - oh please no, they deserve to be eliminated.
And as usual, this was so very rushed as it is a Monday night. Leave a comment below and many thanks for reading!
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