Q&A: 2024 UK general election - Sunak vs Starmer

Hi there guys, I realize I had promised you another piece about the UK general elections but I had been traveling for work and I thought I'd just do you a quick piece using the Q&A format to address some important issues for this election. Please note that at the time of writing this blog post, the final results of this elections are still not known yet at this point. 

Q: Why is Rishi Sunak heading for such a massive defeat? 

A: The reason is simple: even if you put all the politics aside, life here in the UK for the working class (who represent the majority of the population here) has gotten harder. We are in a situation where the rich have gotten richer whilst the poor have either gotten poorer or at least have struggled to maintain the same standard of living. This is a combination of a few key factors: the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and an ineffective government who have taken poor decisions. When poor working class people see a drop in their living standards, when they walk into the supermarket and can no longer afford to buy the simple treats they have become used to enjoying, they want to punish someone and it is usually the government; in this case, it means voting out the Tories for promises that they failed to keep. It is always hard for a government to call an election when the economy isn't in good shape as they can always expect to be punished in an election. There are other factors, but this is the biggest reason why Sunak is heading for a historical defeat this election. 

Q: If the timing is so bad, why did Sunak call for a general election now? 

A: The maximum term for a government between elections in the UK is five years and we had our last general election in December 2019, that means Sunak, by law, had to call for the next election on or before the 11th December 2024, so he could wait a bit longer to see if the economy could improve over the summer and autumn months but Sunak would have the best economists on his team making forecasts about the likelihood of that and one can only guess that they told him that a miraculous recovery in the autumn of 2024 is highly unlikely or that things are likely to get far worse later this year. If you remember all the chaos with Johnson and Truss, well that was well within the five-year term of the government so all they had to do was replace the leader within the Tories and they could continue as the ruling party. Sunak managed to avoid these major scandals and catastrophes, but he has simply run out of time as we approach the deadline for the next election. But then again, claiming that "at least he didn't fuck up, he didn't shit the bed, thus he's much better than the previous PM" is hardly something to be proud of, yes he was a better PM than his predecessors who royally fucked up one after another. Simply saying that he isn't as bad as Johnson or Trump is hardly a good enough marketing strategy when you do have a very credible opponent in the format of Keir Starmer. Whilst I'd like to think that Sunak is being punished for the collective fuck ups of the previous Tory prime ministers and politicians for the last 14 years, in reality, it is probably a result that is a reflection of the economic situation for the working class more than anything else. If Sunak is going to lose regardless of whether he holds an election now or later this year, he may as well get it over and done with, especially if he has other things planned after he leaves office and he is just keen to get on with those plans sooner rather than later. It is not a good look to be the lame duck ruler desperately clinging onto power until the very last day when you know your departure is imminent. Sunak is crazy rich in any case, so I get the impression that being PM was just one of the many things he would do for a laugh and even if it doesn't work out, he will just find the next fun thing to do. He isn't motivated by money at all, that's for sure, since he already has so much of it. Watch this space: I am sure Sunak would go back to the business world where he is far more of a natural fit than politics; he can simply get on with making loads of money and whatever he pursues after this - I'm sure he would make money or at least have a lot of fun. 

Q: Why couldn't Sunak turn the economy around since he was the former chancellor of the exchequer? 

A: There are two key factors: let's start with the global economy. the entire world is still suffering the effects of the pandemic as well as the fall out from the wars in places like Ukraine and Gaza. The UK's economy depends so much on our relationship with the rest of the world, so if the economies in our trading partners are struggling, they would import less from the UK. Likewise, the wars have increased fuel and commodity prices and that affects everyone. No matter how brilliant Sunak and his team may be, they cannot deliver economic success under such circumstances. Conversely, if everything in the global economy is booming, you can have the most incompetent idiots in government making terrible decisions and the economy would still do well. Allow me to compare this to the role of a teacher in a classroom - if you give the teacher a really stupid student, the teacher cannot cure the student's low IQ as the teacher is not a magician. Even if you gave that dumb student the best teacher in the world, that student is still going to be stupid regardless. But if a really smart student had the misfortune of being given a terribly lazy and incompetent student, that student is just going to figure things out through self-study, research and seeking help elsewhere, so when that smart student gets top marks at the exams, it was in spite of the terrible teacher, not because of the terrible teacher. The second reason is that the Tories are a right wing party, their basic ethos is to trust the free market by cutting taxes, incentivizing those who are the smartest business people do what they do best, creating wealth and that would then in turn allow the wealth to trickle down to those who serve the richest. So the supporters of the Tory party and most importantly, their donors, expect generous tax cuts for the rich and that's exactly what Sunak and his party have done. However, their expectation that this wealth would trickle down to the poorest in our society simply hasn't happened. But Sunak's government cannot simply give the poor working class voters money like a bribe in the form of a cash handout just before the elections, that's not what they expect the government to do either. The long term goal would be to give the working classes better education and training, so they can access better paid work and thus achieving social mobility that way in the long run. It's not like the economy is so bad that everyone is starving, the economy isn't doing well but it hasn't collapsed either. I compare it to the raspberry bush in my garden - it is still alive, there are leaves on the bush but at best it gives me a handful of fruits every summer. This plant is neither thriving nor dead, it is somewhere in between those two extremes and that is the state of the British economy. There was only so much Sunak could do as the prime minister and he has run out of time. 

Q: How do you feel about Keir Starmer as your new PM? 

A: I like him, I think his critics have been too harsh on him. I know he isn't great at public speaking, he has an image issue (he doesn't have any fashion sense) but he is a politician, not a social media influencer or even a businessman. I trust him, he is honest and that's vital - I look at the way Trump can just lie all the time and get away with it because his supporters really don't mind or care if he lies - that's scary and Starmer has enough integrity not to lie to the people like that. - you shouldn't lie just because you think you can get away with it. Boris Johnson was like Trump when it came to lying so I really don't want to see the UK go the way of the USA when it comes to this kind of right-wing populist politicians lying to dumb voters just to get into power. That is a slippery slope I am glad this country has avoided this time. Is Starmer the best man for the job? Probably not, there are others I think who could do a better job but at least this isn't the car crash we have seen in America right now with Democrats stuck with Biden having his senile moments and unable to do public speaking because he is just way too old or the job. Both Biden and Trump are terrible (albeit in different ways), but that's a desperately grim situation they have there. Yes I realize that public speaking is not the president's primary function but I couldn't help but wonder that Biden surely isn't the best man for the job at this stage. I intend to hold him to account and expect him to deliver, I don't want him to be simply the PM who isn't from the Tories; I sincerely hope he will be a great PM, rather than the lesser of two evils. Nonetheless, I am genuinely optimistic now, I remember the last election when it was a choice between Corbyn and Johnson - well, I hated them both, they were both deeply flawed in so many ways. In fact, that must be what most Americans must be feeling right now, democracy works when you give the voters a choice between some decent options, rather than giving them two terrible options to choose from. 

Q: What is the effect of the rise of the Reform party on the Tories? 

A: This is an interesting situation, this is because the Reform party represent those on the far right on the political spectrum but they have effectively split the right wing vote. So in the past, if you were on the right on the political spectrum, you'd just vote for the Tories. But being right wing is complex as there are two aspects to it: the first measure is your attitude on the economy like how much taxes big businesses and individuals should pay, how much the government should subsidize housing for the poor and how much the government should spent on public transport. Then there are social issues like gay rights, women's rights, the status of abortion and how much support single mothers should be given. Now those on the right are given a choice: if you're economically right wing but socially liberal, you would vote for the Tories. But if you're economically and socially right wing, then you would vote for the Reform party. This hasn't happened on the left at all: the party of the centrists is the Liberal Democrats and but the more extreme left wing voters tend to vote for the Green party. Now the Greens are only going into this election with one MP and have never really made a serious impact in British politics, left wing voters sympathize with them but then just vote Labour anyway because the Greens have no hope of ever being a force in British politics. Interestingly, instead of trying to form any kind of coalition with the Tories, Reform want to take them on and be the new dominant party of the right, but this is a game that will leave only one winner: Labour. Splitting the vote on the right will make the path to victory for Labour so much easier. This is a difficult issue for the Tories as they cannot be too right wing, as they risk losing some moderate, more centrist supporters to Labour but if they are not seen as right wing enough, then they will lose many supporters to Reform - which is exactly what has happened in this election. So whilst Reform may get a vote share that is substantial (anything from 10 to 15%), they are unlikely to get more than a handful of MPs into parliament this time. This may be completely tactical of course - it may be a ploy by Nigel Farage to simply force the Tories to the negotiating table and say, "you see how I can spoil the election for you by splitting the right wing vote; so here's the deal, we will join forces, I will be your new leader and united, we will take on the Labour at the next election." Farage is not going anywhere and this ploy just might work very well for him, he is breaking down the Tory party now, only with the inetntion to take it over in the future.  

Q: Should Sunak have made some kind of deal with Farage? 

A: Perhaps, but that'll be like making a deal with the devil to save your skin. Rather, Sunak's decision to call the election early was meant to catch the other parties like Reform off guard, so they would not have enough time to have prepared themselves for an election, Sunak was counting on Farage deciding that he wasn't ready this time which was initially the case, before Farage changed his mind and took Sunak on. Hindsight in politics is always 2020. I'd rather see these two destroy each other than for them to collaborate as I'd much rather have Starmer as my PM. I suppose the question is whether or not Farage would even say yes to a deal like that at this point if it was clear that it would be no more than simply arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since Sunak was heading for a complete disaster, so why would Farage want to enter any kind of deal when he stands little to gain from being involved in Sunak's epic defeat by association? If Sunak was going to go down in history as the PM with the worst election defeat in history, Farage would rather be the cause of it rather than be dragged down by it. Therefore it is a moot point at this stage as Sunak couldn't win either way.  

Q: Let's look at the wider picture, what is the state of British politics on this election day? 

A: I'd say it is rather healthy. I'm cautiously optimistic. Look, I know it's not perfect, things could always be a lot better but I feel we have awoken from a nightmare. During the Johnson era, he just lied his way through his time as PM and eventually he was forced to resign as an MP as investigations into his lies grew and it was clear that his time in politics was over. How could he get away with it for so long? I'd like to see him thrown in jail for all the corruption he oversaw but at least he got chucked out of office - I compare that to the utterly dismal situation in America where it looks very likely that Trump will win this forthcoming election as the Democrats refuse to ditch Biden. Why do the Americans have such short memories? They are all focused on Biden's poor performance at the televised debate but they forgot the daily lies and fake news coming out of Trump's administration? I don't have that much faith in democracy as I don't trust the public who vote - that's how we ended up with Brexit and Trump in the first place. Voters can deliver the wrong result and we have seen plenty of evidence of that, so that is why I always approach each election with a certain amount of trepidation. 

Q: But there's no "wrong" result - even if you don't like the result, that is still the outcome of the election. 

A:  Okay let me use Brexit as a case study in this case: The people who voted for Brexit were hoping for things to get better for them: better employment prospects, a stronger pound, a stronger economy and most of all, less immigration. None of that happened - in fact, immigration actually went up after Brexit due to the massive shortages left in the job market when many EU migrants got fed up and left the UK. Thus the wrong result is when you voted with the expectation of a certain outcome and you didn't get what you asked for - let me give you a simple analogy: you're in a restaurant and you have ordered the chicken salad. The waiter then brings you a cheeseburger and fries, hence you say to the waiter, "excuse me, you made a mistake, I didn't order this. I ordered a chicken salad. Can you take this away and bring me my chicken salad please?" Brexit was a protest vote - many poor working class people who felt let down by the government were desperate to send a message to the government to try to improve their situation. So their choice was this: maintain the status quo by staying in the EU or leave the EU and move into uncharted waters - since their current situation was already bad, they were more than willing to believe the lies told by the politicians peddling Brexit as the miracle cure to all the problems of the UK. Except of course, none of that was delivered, none of the promises were ever kept and the opposite happened. The health service is in a worse than ever state than before Brexit and immigration has gone right up after Brexit; so like in my restaurant analogy, instead of getting the chicken salad you ordered, you were given a salad covered with horseshit. It's not "oh this wasn't what I ordered but hey it's fine, I'll eat it. I'm sure it will be nice." No, those who voted for Brexit ended up a lot worse off when they had hoped that voting for Brexit would lead to some kind of improvement to their socio-economic situation. That is why I called it the 'wrong' result as the people who had voted for Brexit didn't get the Brexit they were promised. The UK left the EU but we were worse off as a result of it, so they did get their Brexit but it was certainly not in the form they had hoped for. This is why the Brexit referendum should have never been held because the voters were too stupid, they had believed the lies of politicians like Johnson who would do anything to get into power, even if he meant leaving these voters a lot worse off as a result of Brexit. The UK IS still a country where the rich simply keep getting richer whilst the poor will stagnate or get poorer - Brexit hasn't changed that at all and so those who voted for Brexit didn't get what they had voted for and hence that's why I called it the 'wrong' result.

Q: Are you afraid that taxes will rise for you under a Labour government? 

A: Not really. I left full time employment back in early 2023 and since then, I have set up my own company and have clients who pay me for my services. So some months have been a lot more lucrative than others, but that is just the way it is when you run your own business. For example, June 2024 has been a fantastic month for me whilst May 2024 was a lot quieter. I hope July 2024 will be just as lucrative but I really can't tell for sure until the end of the month. Hence my earnings depend far more on the success of my business ventures and projects, rather than taxation per se. Let's contrast this to a school teacher who earns a regular salary for his work at the school, there is no way he can increase in income by doing his job super well, if he is desperate enough to earn more money, he could take on a second job in his free time. But given how heavy the workload is for teachers these days, let's assume that is not possible. So for someone in that position, how much he actually keeps after income tax can vary depending on the government's policies on income tax: an increase or decrease in the rate of income tax and national insurance contributions (for state pension) will have a direct impact on the amount of money this teacher keeps after all tax and deductions. The election is on the 4th July 2024, the final results will come in within like 24 to 48 hours after that and by the 9th July a new parliament will be called based on the results of the election. If this new government changes the rules on income tax and national insurance contributions, then it would take a couple of months to implement those new rules even if they were to rush them through. So our teacher knows exactly what he will earn for the month of January 2025 given that the amount he will be paid is clearly stipulated in his employment contract, the only variable for him would be all the income tax and national insurance contributions which would be made. Whereas in my case, never mind January 2025, I can't even tell you how much I am going to make in July 2024 given that I made hardly anything in May but a lot of money in June. So for someone in my position, I can increase my earnings my taking on more projects or working harder on my current ones to ensure that they become as lucrative as possible. But on the other hand, the school teacher who has no time for a second job doesn't have that level of flexibility - that's why people like that are a lot more concerned about issues like taxation whilst I am a lot more focussed on making sure I am very successful in all the projects that I take on. After all, it would be far easier to get richer simply by making a lot more money, than hoping for the government to lower your taxes. 

Q: Who did you vote for? 

A: I voted for the Liberal Democrats - the results in the race for my local MP is a foregone conclusion as my local MP is actually Keir Starmer, so of course he is going to win. I have been a supporter of the Liberal Democrats for many years I am a centrist - that is a party that I most closely identify with as a British citizen. There is a rule that you will lose your deposit if you fail to get at least 5% of the vote in a parliamentary election. This is because elections are expensive to organize and run, this rule is there to prevent people who have no intention to take the process seriously from running, as they will lose their deposit. Such elections are meant for serious candidates who have a realistic chance of winning, not some Youtuber, Tiktoker or social media influencer trying to get some attention. I voted for the Liberal Democrats to help make sure that they will cross that 5% threshold and not lose their deposit. I don't even know the name of the guy I voted for, I just don't want the Liberal Democrats to lose their deposit in this instance, that is my way of supporting them.

Okay so that's it from me on this issue for now, I am going to post this now and as I am writing this, the polls haven't closed yet so we don't have the official results at this moment, but this is a very exciting day in British history. The first exit polls will be released at 10 pm UK time tonight once the polls have officially closed and we shall have confirmation of what we all expect to happen - Labour will have a massive landslide victory. Please let me know what you think and if you have any questions about this election or what the impacts of the election results might be, many thanks for reading.