Q&A: Truss and Johnson can both fuck off, we have a new PM.

Hi guys, as a follow up to my last post, Liz Truss resigned (20 October 2022), which means we will have yet another prime minister in the very near future. So much has happened, I will do another round of Q&As to deal with some FAQs.

Q: Will there be a general election now in the UK once you have a new PM?

A: Very unlikely: like Johnson before her, Truss only resigned as the leader of the Conservative party, which happens to be the ruling party - they hold the majority in the parliament at the moment and so have the right to pick a new leader who will become the new PM. She could have resigned as PM and triggered a general election, but she didn't obviously, that would be handing the Labour party the biggest landslide in British political history. So they would not go into a general election which they have zero chance of winning, therefore they will hold on for a while yet for at least two years. 

Q: Liz Truss and her disastrous mini-budget crashed the UK economy and pound in an unreal display of incompetence, but doesn't the government have civil servants who advise the ministers on these issues?

A: Yes of course, but I'd like to share with you a case study from Turkey: president Erdoğan is extremely stubborn when it comes to taking basic economic advice regarding inflation - this is such a basic issue that it was in my nephew's A level economics exam. Turkey is currently facing chronic hyperinflation at 83% and that's because Erdoğan has simply refused to raise interest rates to bring inflation down - instead, he keeps doing the opposite in slashing interest rates thus adding fuel to the fire, doubling down on his awful mistakes and when his economic advisers try to tell him that he is wrong, guess what he does? He just fires them: if the finance minister dares to contradict Erdoğan on the issue of interest rates, he fires them and then replaces the minister with someone whom he believes would be more loyal to him. Erdoğan went as far as to appoint his own son-in-law as finance minister but in a true shit show of how fucked up Turkey is, the son-in-law Berat Albayrak resigned from that post in August 2020 - even his father-in-law's bullshit was too much to take for him. Hence Turkey is still in an utter mess today because they haven't been able to get rid of an evil dictator who silences all his critics and jails his political opponents - at least in the UK, our political system is robust enough not to tolerate Truss a moment longer. She's fucking corrupt, she is as bad as Erdoğan. She fought her way to the top of the system not to serve the people, but to try to grab as much as she could for her and her cronies - it is a farce and a mockery of our democracy, it reflects very poorly on the UK. You tend to expect corrupt countries like Turkey to fuck up like that, but the UK has shown that we can be just as corrupt as the very worst dictatorships in the world. Yes this is a race to the bottom.

Q: Why do you think she had the incredulity to even try something like that? 

A: Boris Johnson had demonstrated that he could get away with breaking so many rules and laws so Truss saw his example and thought, meh if he could get away with all of that, then what's the worst that can happen if I did the same? 

Q: But why did Johnson get away with it for so long and Truss didn't? 

A: She crashed the economy and the pound - Johnson didn't. But please don't take this as any kind of gesture to condone Johnson as PM. It's like saying, wow the babysitter didn't kill my child, my child was still alive when I got home tonight! Duh it's the babysitter's job to take care of the child, not kill the child so in Truss' case, yeah it was the equivalent of the babysitter killing the baby after just 15 minutes and Johnson didn't fuck up as badly even though he did fuck up pretty badly. The markets and the pound actually recovered the moment Johnson pulled out of the leadership contest - a sure sign of, "phew, at least Boris Johnson won't be back to fuck things up further, he has done enough damage already."

Q: What is going on with the markets and the pounds - why is this significant, why does it matter? 

A: When it comes to the Conservative leadership contest, this is a process that is nothing short of a popularity contest - the MPs will want to back someone they think they can get a good job out of, there's a huge difference between simply being an MP and solving very local issues like the parking  around the local supermarket or being promoted to become a minister and dealing with issues on a national level like getting trade deals with China or our response to Putin. This is why MPs are going to put their own self-interest to further their careers over what's good for the country. And if the votes go to the Conservative members, remember only about 140,000 of them voted Liz Truss in: they are all extremely old, bigoted, racist, half-dead ghosts who have no idea what the hell is going on with the economy as the last time they worked was probably back in the 1980s when Thatcher was in power. That's how we ended up with Liz Truss and we all know how well that went! The markets simply respond to the policies of the government and so if the government has good policies that inspire confidence, then the investors will respond accordingly but if they government announces a mini-budget full of bullshit ideas, then the markets is the most accurate barometer of how well the government is doing. The market doesn't lie, the market simply responds and it is like a litmus test - it simply reflects the conditions out there. 

Q: Are you surprised that she resigned and it wasn't dragged out further? 

A: Well I'm surprised she lasted this long. There was a UK newspaper who ran an experiment to see which would last longer after her mini-budget debacle: it was Truss vs a lettuce (which had an expiry date) and the lettuce actually won. The Queen died within three days of Truss becoming the new PM and so that actually bought Truss some time as the parliament put everything on pause during that period of official mourning. If not for the Queen's death, Truss would have fucked up even sooner and would have been chucked out of office even sooner. The last few days have been excruciating to watch and each minute she hung onto power, she would have invited more people to stab her in the back.

Q: Who was worse, Truss or Johnson? Who do you hate more? 

A: It has got to be Johnson. I hate Boris Johnson the way so many Americans hate Trump. I had to put up with Johnson for so many years when he started out as the mayor of London for two terms before becoming prime minister - my hatred for him only grew with time and that was why it was such a relief to finally see him gone. Whereas with Truss, she came out of the blue, then she fucked up spectacularly in such a brief period of time and now she's always going to be remembered as the one who fucked up so bad she was chucked out of office in record time - no second chances, fuck off now. They both stood for the same kind of toxic politics but at least our time with Truss was really quite short - with Johnson it was like a fucking awful nightmare you just couldn't wake up from for years and years, it went on far too long. 

Q: There was serious talk about Johnson making a comeback, was this realistic? He pulled out of the race at the last minute this time but for a while, his chances actually looked quite good. How could this be possible? 

A: Never say never in the world of politics and it's not because he is any good, but it is all about the process which led to us getting Truss as PM in the first place. So there are two groups at play here: the MPs and the wider Conservative party membership. The MPs get to whittle down the list of candidates down to just two then it will be opened up to the wider membership and it is suggested that if Johnson manages to survive this process by making it down to the final two, then he will stand a good chance of being selected by the party members. However, the Conservative MPs have two important factors to consider when they decide if they want to back Johnson or not. If they back Johnson and he wins, then they stand a good chance of getting a nice ministerial position in the new government. But then again, even if that happens, they still have to face a general election in about two years two months (in January 2025) so if they believe that the current status quo of Labour delivering a landslide victory at the next general election would continue under Johnson, then they would be wise to back a candidate like Sunak or Penny Mordaunt to change the fortunes of the party - Johnson was only kicked out by his very own party earlier this year and there are enough people who pushed him back then who may not be forgiven yet, so they may think, "there's no point in me trying to back Boris now, he probably still hates me for what I did to instigate his downfall earlier this year. I'm better off backing Rishi or Penny. Even if Boris is indeed still popular with the party members, I have nothing to gain by backing him so I must be careful whom I back in this process." 

Q: This is hardly a democratic process to select the leader of a country, is it? 

A: Hell no. It is a rigged process controlled by a party desperate to hold on to power at all costs and in an ideal world, we would have a general election as soon as possible which will lead to a record majority for the Labour party. I'm sure many of us would want to see the Conservatives punished severely for what happened but we're not going to get that. The problem with this process is that it has produced poor results twice already: both Johnson and Truss were selected through this process as it has been only the Conservative party members appointing the next leader of the country rather than the general public (as you would in a general election). The problem with this selection process is that it is a popularity contest rather than a rigorous selection process based on true merit - that's the only reason why Johnson stands a chance in this process as the Conservative members are too fucking stupid to realize what he disaster he has been for the country and if anything, this is a good justification for a dictatorship! Democracy doesn't work well when the voters are fucking idiots. The best outcome will be for Sunak to gain enough support to win outright without having to put this to any kind of vote, keeping the whole process out of the hands of the stupid Conservative members, so we can get the right leader for the country - that's the best case scenario. I'm all for democracy but that's what general elections are for whilst the whole Conservative leadership selection process is a fucking shit show - it has been such a total disgrace. 

Q: How do you feel about PM Sunak?

A: After Johnson and Truss, the bar is set pretty fucking low at this stage. Sunak has to do little, just the fact that Johnson and Truss are gone is good news and so both the pound and the markets would recover just because there's a new PM in charge. There will be a sense of relief that things would get better and this country desperately needs hope at this stage that we can turn things around. People like me are fine - I'm rich, I earn in US dollars as I am working for a Latin American company and I don't have a mortgage. But most working class people who are struggling to make ends meet and younger people who have a mortgage, oh they are well and truly fucked by recent events with a weaker pound and rising interest rates. This country has been fucked up the rear end by a giant cactus by the last two PMs and thus I am cautiously optimistic that Sunak will be a breath of fresh air. Thus I am optimistic, there is genuine hope for the first time. 

Q: Are you worried about what the next two years will hold if Sunak doesn't deliver? 

A: The moral of the story is that you can't depend on the government to take care of you, you have to take care of yourself and that's what I've been doing for years. I pay my taxes and get virtually nothing in return from the government. Only poor people rely on the government for everything and they are the ones who most badly need a Labour government in power, not me. I've changed a lot over the last few years - we've lived through Covid and at one time, we had over 2,000 people dying a day in the UK and that's just statistics, numbers. Then we have had the war in Ukraine and oh, Russia has bombed the fuck out of yet another city today and another huge number of people got killed. Watching someone else suffer horribly has been the theme for nearly the last three years already so in this case, as the UK economy plunges deep into recession and more poor people in this country starve to death - meh, how's that any different from pandemic or the war? I have no compassion left in me to care, as long as I'm going to be fine and I'm working for a South American company - I'm not even working for a British company, my bosses are in Peru and I'm paid in US dollars. But the fact is my company doesn't deal with the UK market at all, so I'll be fine regardless what happens. 

Q: What has the reaction been from my friends outside the UK?

A: My biggest frustration with the people outside the UK, particularly from Singapore, is that there is this complete lack of understanding on two key points: firstly, there's a massive political difference between the left and the right in British politics - therefore whether you have a Labour or Conservative government can have a massive impact on the way the country is run. Secondly, Singaporeans do not seem to realize that this is an extremely unequal country and I have my theory as to why this is such a massive blind spot for Singaporeans despite the fact that Singapore is facing exactly the same situation when it comes to inequality. Singaporeans don't have a democracy, they have one party dominate their entire political system with a tiny number of opposition parties barely making a dent on any of the decisions taken by the ruling party whereas in the UK, voters are given a choice between a more left wing approach by Labour and a more right wing approach by the Conservatives. That is the kind of choice that Singaporeans have never ever had (and probably never will, at least in my lifetime). So they see it as "why is your government so inept" as if it was a company with a small group of directors who are running the company (which is exactly the case in Singapore) but they find it hard to understand the way political ideology comes into the equation even within the Conservative party - like whether you want a more centrist approach to reach across the political divide to widen the appeal of the party or if you want to pander to the more hardcore extreme right of the party. These are important issues when the ruling party is the Conservative party but since Singaporeans don't deal with such issues at all and thus it can be very hard to explain British politics to them. 

The other aspect that they don't understand is the massive inequality in British society - so the top 20%  here are very rich whilst the bottom 80% range from "just getting by pay check to pay check" to living in dire poverty. So when Singaporeans read clickbait type articles like, "One in seven Britons skipping meals in cost of living crisis." Is that headline true? Yes, I think that's a reasonable estimate given how many British people are living in abject poverty and that number will probably rise much higher in the coming year under the Conservative government. But whenever there is a crisis like that, it is always the poorest and the most vulnerable who will suffer the most. That's exactly what would happen as well if a similar crisis were to hit Singapore, if there was a political crisis that caused both the Singapore dollar and the local economy to crash, it would be the bottom 20% of Singaporeans who would be hit hard whilst the rest might be upset at what is happening but wouldn't really face any real hardship. Let me give you a simple example, I was in the supermarket recently when I spotted a chocolate product that I like - it is this thin wafer that contains a hazelnut cream and is coated with rich, dark chocolate. One bite into it and you get a symphony of textures of flavours, from the dark chocolate on the outside giving you that bittersweet hit, to the crunch from the crispy wafer to the rich, sweet hazelnut cream in the middle - I swear I have to limit myself to one a day of those before gymnastics otherwise I would get fat. I hadn't bought that in a while and I noticed that the price has gone up by about 40% compared to when I last nought it. Ouch. Yeah we are facing a cost of living crisis and imported foodstuffs like fancy chocolates cost more now. What did I do? I smirked and bought it anyway because I am rich, I can afford it and I'm worth it. I earn enough money with my job. 

But for the very poorest people, if an item like that chocolate product goes up by 40% in price, then it makes it no longer affordable for them. They have a limited budget for food and if one item goes up by that much in price, then they have to either stop buying that item, buy a cheaper version of that item or if they still want to buy it, they have to sacrifice another item from their shopping list. Right now, so many items are getting more expensive with inflation running at over 10% in the UK and so if you don't have enough money to spend more to maintain your living standards, then you're in big trouble and that is exactly the situation facing the poorest 20% now. Even in places like Lebanon where the economic situation is far worse, the top 20% are still relatively unscathed by the problems. If there are power cuts then the rich simply smirk and say, "turn on the private generator." Oh but those generators cost a lot of money, but the rich can afford those and the poor will have to go without electricity. So even if things do get a lot worse in the UK, given that I'm easily in the top 5% given my current net worth, I would need a full scale Russian invasion of the UK before I literally run out of money - that would entail Putin blowing up London with a nuclear bomb! If it ever came to that, I won't be worrying about being able to afford my favourite chocolates, I would just be dead. I would have been vaporized when the nuclear bomb detonates. So either I get through this crisis whilst watching poor people suffer or I would get blown up by Putin, but there's never going to be an option where I ever run out of money and become poor. Even in Ukraine, the top 5% richest Ukrainians got out to safety within days of the Russian invasion whilst it is the poorest who don't have the means to flee. 

So that's it from me. This is such a fast moving situation and I think by the time I publish this, hopefully PM Sunak would have comfortably settled into no. 10 Downing Street. Fingers crossed. Whilst I'm not a massive fan of him, but I think that's probably the best outcome we can hope for in the short run. So what do you guys make of the ridiculous situation in the UK thus far? As always - please leave a comment below to let me know what you think, many thanks for reading.