Dead man walking: how long can Boris Johnson hold on to power?

Hi there guys, I'm sure a lot of you have seen the headlines in the news about Boris Johnson's situation and the possibility of us finally getting a new prime minister. Since this situation is uniquely British and may be rather unfamiliar to a lot of you who are outside the UK, I have used a Q&A format to deal with some of the questions around this episode and deal with some of the more unusual aspects of what has happened here in the UK. I am taking the unusual step to publish this ASAP with very few hyperlinks as this is such a fast moving situation, I need to get this article out quickly and I may put in some more hyperlinks at a later stage. Trigger warning: I fucking swear a lot in this post! So are you ready?

Q: Why has the last 24 hours been so significant? 

A: I have had to update this so many times it is unreal. There has been 37 resignations in the last 24 hours, including from two very high profile cabinet ministers (Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak) and 16 other ministers. One resignation like that is usually enough to make the news, a few would make the headlines but 37? It is such a fast moving situation and it will probably be out of date the moment I publish this post as the number would have gone up again. It is unprecedented - it is a huge middle finger from Johnson's own government, they are saying to him, "we don't trust you, we have no confidence in you, resigning now is to pile on more pressure on you to go." Don't forget, these are people he has personally appointed to these senior positions (or at least personally approved their appointments), so it's like his wife saying, "yeah, my husband is a real asshole, he is a fucking liar and can't be trusted at all, so I want a divorce now." 

Q: Do you support Boris Johnson? 

A: Fucking hell, no! Hell no! Let's get this out of the way because my reader Amanda thought I supported him. No no no, I fucking hate him so much. He is the worst of the worst when it comes to politics, I want my politicians to be honest, decent and trustworthy and Johnson is a piece of shit who has no basic decency at all - this is personal, politics is always personal! I think it is bullshit to say, "oh I support this party and thus even if they choose a new leader who is a lying piece of shit, I would be loyal to the party regardless." Anyone with a shred of common sense, with half a brain cell left would think, hang on a minute what the hell did you just do? How could you appoint that evil, lying piece of shit as your leader? What the fuck are you thinking? That's exactly how I felt when Boris Johnson became prime minister and exactly how I felt when the Republicans selected Trump to be their presidential candidate. I hate them both as much. Now to be fair, I hold everyone to account equally no matter which side of the political divide they may come from: I hated Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party not because I'm right wing and hate the Labour, but no it was entirely personal - I think Corbyn is a really stupid politician who doesn't understand how politics works. I fucking hate Boris Johnson even more than I hate Corbyn not because I'm this left-wing liberal, but because it is personal. Boris Johnson is a liar who has no integrity or common decency, he is a reminder of how awful this country is because he manipulated, lied and cheated his way to the top. I hold all politicians to account and that should always be the way. No blind loyalty.

Q: Even when Trump became very unpopular towards the end of his term, he clung on till the very end of his four-year presidency term. Why can't Boris do that? After all, he did win the last election in October 2019. 

A: Such is the nature of British politics - if we don't like a prime minister, if we think the PM is doing a terrible job, there are basically two ways to get rid of the PM and this has happened a few times before in British politics. Firstly, the ruling party (in this case the Conservatives, aka the Tories) can trigger a change of leadership by having a vote of no-confidence in their leader; the leader of the party is the de facto prime minister so by changing your party leader, you are ousting the prime minister - the benefit of using this method is to make sure that you replace the unpopular PM with someone from your own party who can then make amends and fix everything that has gone terribly wrong before you head on into the next election. The other alternative is if the MPs in the house of commons trigger a vote of no confidence and if that then passes by a simple majority of just one, then either the PM must resign or the whole government must resign. This hasn't happened since 1979 and has only happened three times in the last century, so this is highly unlikely - typically, this would trigger a snap election which could result in the incumbent party losing after such turmoil. This is a far less attractive option for the Tories now who would much rather manage the situation by carefully selecting a far more electable new PM to head into the next election so they will have a much better chance of staying in power. Basically, the rules regarding elections vary from country to country - the British system here allows us to get rid of a terrible PM a lot more easily than say, in America where Trump was able to cling on till the bitter end. Thankfully we have a way to hold Boris Johnson to account for his actions, he will be gone and the country will be much better off. 

Q: Yeah you say that but Boris did survive a vote of no confidence back in June, just a month ago!

A: The motivation of those who participated in that vote of no confidence back in June, the only people who could vote were the 359 MPs from the Conservative party. Thus their primary motivation is not whether they liked Johnson or if they supported him, but rather, "if we go into the next election with Johnson as our leader, would that help or hinder my chances of winning again?" So this is purely based on self-interest, all MPs want to keep their jobs so for them, that's their primary motivation when choosing whether or not to back a leader. At that vote, Boris won with a 59% majority which is considered a slim margin, especially since Theresa May won a similar vote with a 63% vote and she stepped down less than six months later. John Major clung on to power after winning such a vote with 66% only to be totally wiped out at the next election in 1997 - many Conservative MPs would be keen to avoid what happened in 1997 because that's the price you pay when you head into the next election with a very unpopular PM. Therefore there is a big risk of losing your job as an MP under such circumstance and these MPs have to make a strategic choice when it comes to self-interest. Therefore their decision was not so much based on how they felt about Johnson but it was pure self interest.

Q: Boris did win that vote with 59% and there are still many cabinet ministers who are steadfastly loyal to him, surely that's enough to help him cling onto power in the short run, right?

A: Not really. Johnson is lucky in that the people plotting against him have been badly organized to say the least, the timing of the no confidence vote was wrong. Johnson suffered three more huge political catastrophes since winning that vote: firstly, there were the two by-election results which resulted in a resounding defeat for his party, including in Tiverton & Honiton which is a Tory safe seat (in that this area has only voted for the Tories since its creation). Not only did they lose to the Liberal Democrats but by a huge margin, this goes to show that the Tories cannot go on as if it is business as usual, that they can count on their usual supporters to keep them in power at the next general election - in Tiverton & Honiton, Tory supporters either voted for another party or simply didn't vote that time and if a snap election was triggered tomorrow, then we could see that happening all over the country. Then of course, when things couldn't get any worse for Johnson, the deputy chief whip Chris Pincher got very drunk and groped two men. Yup, he molested them, touched their private parts. Considering that the Tory MP for Tiverton & Honiton was forced to step down for watching porn on his phone whilst in parliament, it seems obvious that molesting two men is a far more serious offence. Johnson first denied all knowledge of previous allegations against Pincher, as that's his usual way to deal with such situations - he lies and absolves himself of all responsibility believing that he can get away with it. But this time, people in his own party turned against him and he was forced to make a humiliating apology. He fucked up so badly, he had to go, it was the last straw. 

Q: Yeah but he has gotten away with stupid shit like that so many times before though, remember all the wild parties he had in his office whilst the rest of the UK was in a strict lockdown? Surely lying about something like that is far less serious than breaking the Covid lockdown rules?

A: We're witnessing a "death by a thousand paper cuts" situation. Johnson is so fat and thick skinned that he has plenty of skin and blubber to cut but each cut is still a wound that will allow him to bleed a lot more before he finally goes. 

Q: Did you just make fun of his weight? That's so un-PC. 

A: Well tough shit, Boris Johnson is too fucking fat. Just like Trump was. Deal with it. I don't care. I won't stop there - fuck Boris Johnson, he is a lying piece of shit. I was so disappointed he didn't die of Covid. I'm enjoying his downfall now. 

Q: But many said he'll be gone after this Pincher episode and look, he is still here even as we're talking now.

A: The thing is that there is no clear front runner when it comes to who will replace Johnson and thus there are a lot of people who want to be in the position of being the king/queen maker. Let me explain how that works. The current home secretary is Priti Patel and she has made a very successful career in this government by being extremely loyal to Boris Johnson. However, the odds of Patel successfully becoming the next leader of the Conservatives (and hence the PM) are very low because she has been way too controversial to be generally popular. Whilst Johnson clearly valued her loyalty, she seemed far more interested in pleasing him rather than the voting public so in short, she is unpopular. Even the fact that she is an Asian woman hasn't softened her image at all and she lacks appeal; however, she is still in a very strong position of power as a king/queen maker. So Patel can go to the rebels who want to oust Johnson and say, "if you wanna get rid of Boris, you can't do it without my help - but what do I get in return? If I help you get rid of Boris, I will want to remain as home secretary or at least be moved into another cabinet position. Are you ready to start negotiating?" Hence Patel is in a much stronger position now as a king/queen maker than someone like Rishi Sunak, who has already joined the rebels and thus you're now saying, "Rishi has resigned but Boris is still in power, that only demonstrates how little real power he had in the first place, he is easily replaceable." People like Patel will act in self-interest, so she will support Johnson if it will serve her career advancement or she will turn on him if it will help secure her a good cabinet position in the next government. But if she stays silent for too long, then she would be outmaneuvered by others. 

Q: But surely Johnson is still very popular with the electorate, that's how he won the 2019 election, right?

A: Well, we have to go way back to the Brexit referendum in 2016. Pro-leave politicians like Johnson promised the voters a lot of thing, blaming all the problems on immigrants from Europe as well as the EU meddling in British politics. You have to bear in mind that the UK is an extremely unequal country so on average, we may appear to be a reasonably well off European country but in reality, there is a big divide between the rich and the poor. The poorest amongst the working class in the UK live in abject poverty and squalor but it our democracy, it is one person one vote and Johnson became very popular with poorer voters who were desperate for an easy fix to their abject poverty. They were dumb enough to believe his lies that Brexit lift them out of poverty - now six years later, we are out of the EU and these poor working class voters are even poorer now than they were back in 2016 when they voted for Brexit. Sure they can blame the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, but many of them have blamed the government for failing to deliver on all these promises of a brighter future that Brexit would bring them eventually. Therein lies the problem with out politics: you have a lot of uneducated, stupid, very poor, working class voters in this country who are easily manipulated by crooked, dishonest politicians like Boris Johnson and being a well-educated, intelligent, rich voter in London, I can see through his lies instantly but it is shocking how much suffering these poor working class voters have to go through before it finally dawns on them that Boris Johnson had no intention of ever helping them. Well, these fools got exactly what they voted for. 

Q: So what is going to happen in the next few weeks then? How much longer could Boris cling to power? 

A: Oh we know he is never going to resign. Technically speaking, he is safe from another leadership challenge for a year after winning the vote of no confidence in June; however, a lot has happened in the last month and those rules could be changed if enough people within the Tory party vote to change the rules to facilitate another vote of no confidence get rid of Johnson. So the rebels are hoping that rather than having to do that, Johnson would just resign on his own accord before that but that's unlikely to happen. Don't forget, if Chris Pincher is forced to resign as an MP by his own constituents (and yes we have provisions for this in our law), it is more than likely that the Conservatives will go on to lose that seat in another by-election, repeating the atrocious results of the last two by-elections. So it's a question of just how many more catastrophes the Conservative party put up with before they finally say, that's it enough is enough, we can't continue like this with Boris Johnson in charge as we are having a scandal every single week, a disaster every other week. How is this normal or acceptable? Even if Johnson is willing to put up with this chaos, his government isn't. 

Q: So is a snap election unlikely then? 

A: Never say never. It would be vindictive gesture on the part of Johnson but he could trigger a snap election moments before he is ousted as a final "fuck you" to the Conservative party, knowing that they are going to have very little chance of winning an election under such circumstances. Try to look at it from Johnson's point of view: he has seen all his trusted colleagues and aides turn against him, one by one they have lined up to stick the daggers in his back. So he could be thinking, "if I am going to lose my job, well then fuck the lot of you, I will make sure you all lose your jobs as well by calling a snap election which will lead to a Tory defeat - all these ministers who were in the cabinet will now become opposition MPs with no real power. It would be a vindictive piece of treachery but why not? If he is going to be ousted anyway, then why not say a big 'fuck you all' to the people who stabbed you in the back on the way out after packing your personal belongings? Would Johnson destroy his own party to spite them for not supporting him? I think that's completely possible and when that happens, I would smirk and say, "now why didn't you get rid of him earlier when you had the chance to do so?" An old friend once joked that she was going to leave some rotting raw prawns in her drawer at her desk when she was fired, as a 'fuck you' to the person who took her job. You can see how people who are forced from their jobs can decide to act in a vindictive manner. Johnson certainly has the capacity to be very vindictive indeed. 

Q: If Boris is such a catastrophe, how did he win the 2019 election then? 

A: There were two major factors for his 2019 victory: firstly, he had ran on a campaign to get Brexit done. The previous prime minister Theresa May was ousted from power  for failing to get a deal on Brexit and many people in the country were keen to back Boris in his bid to settle the issue on Brexit once and for all. The second reason was that the leader of the opposition then was Jeremy Corbyn and he was another complete disaster. It was impossible to lose against Corbyn as he was so clueless. So imagine if England has reached the finals of the football World Cup, but instead of playing a team like Germany or Brazil, there was an scheduling error and instead they are facing the team from San Marino in the finals. In case you don't know, the team from San Marino are statistically the worst national football team in the world. To be fair, the population of San Marino is just 33,600 so that means they are always playing against much stronger teams from bigger countries. So Johnson beating Corbyn in 2019 is just like the England team beating San Marino 10 - 0 in November 2021, it is not like the England team were that great, but if you don't score at least 10 goals against a team like San Marino then you're totally shit. That's how ridiculous that election was, Labour was doomed to a crushing defeat the moment they selected Corbyn as their leader. See how fair I am? I loathe both Johnson and Corbyn - they are both fucking awful. That's called being objective! That was an awful election for me as both Labour and Tories were equally fucked up, though I think Corbyn would have been a better PM than Johnson given the way Johnson has fucked up. 

Q: Who would be the next prime minister then? 

A: Allow me to quote a comment I've just read on Youtube on this issue, "I think anything that's sentient could replace Johnson and do a far better job. By anything that's sentient, I mean human, animal or even a plant. I'd be quite happy to see a sea lion take over, to be honest, it couldn't do any worse." Okay if I really had to choose, I'd pick Rishi Sunak. 

Q: No but seriously? Who will be the next prime minister? 

A: I think that will depend on what Boris Johnson does next. If there is a snap election, then the leader of the Labour party Kier Starmer will be our next PM. If there is an orderly transition of power within the Tory party, then I refer you to the odds checker on the matter as it is a moving goalposts but the gambling industry are pretty good at making sure they have a very clear idea of what is going to happen. Do keep checking those betting odds as they will shift day by day. 

OK, this is such a fast moving situation that I had to rush this out. Keep checking the BBC website for the latest on the situation. And I am thrilled, I am elated, I fucking hate Boris Johnson so much and finally there is light at the end of the tunnel at fucking last. Please do leave a comment below to let me know your thoughts guys, many thanks for reading.