Let's talk about the tense situation in Ukraine at the moment, first in my original style, then in 'simple English'.
There has been disturbing news coming from Moscow today - Russia's upper house of parliament has approved president Putin's request to deploy troops in Ukraine. With Crimea effectively already declaring its secession in the last 24 hours, what are the options for the new parliament in Kiev? If they simply stand back and do nothing, they risk losing large swathes of Eastern Ukraine. these Eastern provinces with ethnic Russian majorities have no desire to be a part of a new Ukraine with pro-EU and pro-Western sentiments and these provinces potentially could break away to either join Russia or establish new independent states.
Some people would argue that an amicable divorce would be the easiest solution - certainly there is a precedent for this: Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union are the most obvious examples of countries that have broken up within our generation. Smaller new countries have emerged when regions have successfully seceded from bigger countries: East Timor (from Indonesia), Eritrea (from Ethiopia), South Sudan (from Sudan), Kosovo (which unilaterally declared itself independent of Serbia) and some would remember that Namibia had only become independent of South Africa in 1990. So if Crimea (and other Eastern provinces of Ukraine) wants to break away from Ukraine, wouldn't the path of least resistance simply be to just let them go rather than risk a war to keep Ukraine in its current form?
Of course, it is never that straightforward - even in Crimea, it is 58% ethnic Russian. So whilst it is majority Russian, what about the rights of the 42% non-Russian minorities in Crimea then? What about the ethnic Russians in Crimea who do not desire for secession and would rather remain citizens in a pro-EU/pro-Western Ukraine? By the same token, what about ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea who may favour a closer relationship with Moscow after having witnessed the kind of economic woes in the Eurozone since 2008? Should one make such assumptions on the basis of one's ethnicity over an issue as complex as the future of Crimea - or should one allow the people of Crimea to express their desires through a more consultative process, such as a referendum or fresh elections?
Certainly, nobody wants to a see a war between Ukraine and Russia, everyone wants a peaceful resolution if at all possible. Such a conflict could plunge the whole region into a prolonged civil war, bringing economic hardship and misery to millions. However, this is no longer just a domestic issue for Ukraine now with Russian troops already taking over Ukrainian government buildings in Crimea - this is tantamount to an invasion: it is a de facto invasion no matter how Russia tries to dress it up with all manners of political rhetoric. Whilst nobody wants to see this conflict escalate even further, few of us would like to see a tyrant like Putin get away with this act of war either. Would Putin be satisfied if Crimea was allowed to secede? Or would his desire to control Ukraine only be satisfied when the ousted, pro-Russian ex-president Yanukovych is restored in Kiev by any means necessary (such as Russian tanks rolling into the Maidan in Kiev)? Given the nature of politics in Eastern Europe, we hope for the best but expect the worst.
More bad news coming from Moscow today - Russia's government has approved president Putin's request to move his troops into Ukraine. As Crimea already broken away from Ukraine yesterday, what are the options for the new Ukrainian government? If they do nothing, these Eastern provinces with ethnic Russian majorities may break away from Ukraine. The easiest solution may be to let Crimea go, this has already happened before: Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union are examples of former countries that have broken up into smaller ones. New countries have been created when regions have broken away from bigger countries: East Timor (from Indonesia), Eritrea (from Ethiopia) and South Sudan (from Sudan). So if Crimea wants to break away from Ukraine, wouldn't it be easier to just let them go rather than risk a war?
Of course, it is never that simple - even in Crimea, it is 58% ethnic Russian. So whilst it is majority Russian, what about the rights of the non-Russian minorities there then? What about the Russians in Crimea prefer remain citizens Ukraine? What about the Ukrainians in Crimea who want a closer relationship with Russia if the they don't trust the EU? Shouldn't the people of Crimea to get express their desires through a referendum or fresh elections?
Nobody wants to a see a war between Ukraine and Russia, a prolonged civil war will only bring hardship and misery to many. But this is no longer just a local issue for Ukraine now with Russian troops already taking over Ukrainian government buildings in Crimea - no matter how you look at it, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Nobody wants to things to get worse but few of us would like a tyrant like Putin get away with this act of war either. What will satisfy Putin? How far will he go? We hope for the best but expect the worst.
So what do you think of the two versions? Do you think the simple English version would have a wider appeal? Or would you simply say, "Limpeh, it doesn't matter how simple you make the language, even if you were to strip it down even further to make it even more accessible to the less educated in Singapore, there are going to be many Singaporeans who simply won't give a hoot about what is going on in Ukraine. It's not the language - it's the subject matter. What happens in Crimea does not affect their everyday lives so they just won't be interested unless it is something that directly impacts them. - they are not even interested in many things that happen locally in Singapore." As usual, please do leave a comment below and let me know what you think. Thank you for reading, Дуже дякую!
Less educated people would not use "whilst" and "prolonged". Your simple version is still too good. Now, about how to access the masses. No, I do not think that having less educated people write for the less educated people is the answer to get the message across. It can only tarnish the reputation of the source. Any good writer can get the message across to the masses with good writing, not bad writing. I am not an elitist. I just believe in good writing especially if you are a media source. On any personal blog, I do not care. I have read really poor English written by uneducated baboons on some blogs during the Anton Casey saga. It reflected poorly on the people who wrote them. Those people who called you elitist and disagreed with you on this issue over the past few days do not get the point. You do not have to sacrifice the quality of English to reach everyone,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment Di - I am quite upset about something else unrelated and I am going to do a quick post on it, it's a dispute with a friend and before I say something that may well and truly damage my relationship with this friend, I want to run it by you guys (because I sense I am in this case being elitist). Gimme a few mins, I wanna get this off my chest.
Deletehttp://limpehft.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/get-out-of-my-elite-uncaring-face.html Thanks Di.
DeleteI prefer your original style.
ReplyDeleteThank you!
DeleteI don't understand why Russia is deploying troops in Ukraine. What has Crimea's secession from Ukraine has to do with Russia?
ReplyDeleteIn a nutshell, Russia wants to protect her interests in Crimea - Russia has some naval bases in Crimea where part of the Russian Black Sea navy is based and even if Crimea becomes an independent country (as opposed to become a part of Russia per se), an independent Republic of Crimea will do Russia's bidding. It will effectively be a satellite state of Russia, under Moscow's influence: sure Russia will pour money into Crimea and in return Russia will get a huge say in what happens there. That's a good compromise for Russia as Crimea becoming a part of Russia will be too controversial even more Putin (and will stir up more trouble than it is worth - does he want to a new age of Russian imperialism? Is he mad enough to do so?)
DeletePutin is also worried about Russia's naval base and military interests in the Crimea should a very pro-western new government in Kiev turn around and say, "you have 24 hours to move all Russian troops out of the Crimea, we are cancelling your lease on the naval base."
PS. A country having a naval base in another country is nothing new: did you know that Guantanamo Bay is in Cuba?
For further reading: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26403297
DeleteBut since as you said if Crimea goes independent then it will benefit Russia, but since they have already declared their secession then why is there still a need for Russia to secure its own interests?
DeleteCrimea cannot just say, "I'm leaving you Ukraine, bye bye!" Dissolving the relationship officially, divorcing the mothership is a pretty complex process - that's what Scotland is trying to do to the UK at the moment and I'm not convinced that they are successfully running a campaign that will eventually win them independence which will be decided by a referendum, not by a bunch of Scottish thugs who will mount a coup to kick out the British police/forces etc. Crimea could try to secede of course, but they need Ukraine to say "okay fine you can go" rather than "we'll send in the troops to quell this rebellion" - until an official resolution is reached, Crimea is still a part of Ukraine and the authorities in Kiev want to quell the uprising/rebellion in Crimea whilst Russia wants Crimea to succeed at this attempt in succession. Two different countries want two different outcomes in Crimea: we hope this can be resolved without the two countries going to war.
Delete#typo: whilst Russia wants Crimea to succeed at this attempt in SECESSION.
DeleteSo I agree with your stance that complicated news can be made simpler and clearer. If you will -- let me rewrite your "simpler" version (which isn't very simple at all) to put across similar points.
ReplyDelete---
Today Russia's government approved President Putin's request to move troops into Ukraine. This could end up in war, either between Russia and Ukraine, or a civil war in Ukraine. And the longer a war goes on, the more the Ukrainian people will suffer.
What can the new Ukrainian government do? Yesterday, the province of Crimea broke away from Ukraine. If the new government does nothing, other provinces like Crimea, in the East with many ethnic Russians may also break away. It may be easiest to just let Crimea go. After all, other countries have broken up in the past in similar ways. Maybe it is easier for the Ukrainians to let Crimea go, rather than risk a war.
But it isn't so simple, because there are many non-Russians living in Crimea. So what about the rights of these people; or even the Russians who want to stay Ukrainian citizens? Or even the Ukrainians who don't agree with the Ukrainian government, which wants to be closer to the EU than Russia? Shouldn't the people of Crimea get to vote on this, either by an election or a referendum?
But matters are now bigger than just what Crimeans want. Russian troops have taken over Ukrainian government buildings; no matter how you look at it, Russia has invaded Ukraine. While nobody wants things to get worse, letting a tyrant like Putin get away with war isn't good either. So what will satisfy Putin and how far will he go? We hope for the best but expect the worst.
---
That's a simple copy-edit. It doesn't change the message of your text; just your style, to make it easier to read.
But simplifying an article isn't about changing style. It's about changing messaging. If you want an article to be simple to read, don't ask questions; state positions. Such as:
It isn't so simple [...] Just letting Crimea go will hurt the non-Russians, the Russians who want to stay Ukrainian citizens, and the Ukrainians who don't agree [...] The people of Crimea may be better off with a vote, either by election or by referendum.
Think about that.
Oh, and by the way, I quite disagree with your analysis that "no matter how you look at it, Russia has invaded Ukraine." An ethnic Russian living in Ukraine who welcomes union might see it very differently. Which is why State has been very careful to call it an "uncontested arrival." Because so far -- and by the time I write this, I might be wrong -- there have been no pitched battles.
Delete"An uncontested arrival" = invasion. Just because you entered my home, and I am not throwing you out yet until I have gathered enough support and energy to throw you out, does not mean you have not invaded my home. If my mother-in-law were to plant herself in my guest house, and my husband is too chicken shit to throw her out, it's still invasion.
DeleteOh Di, if you and I lived in the same city, we'll be having coffee together all the time as I would so love bitching about life with you! :)
DeleteI know! And I do love to bitch about the stupidity of people. As Scar from The Lion King said, "I am surrounded by idiots." Which is fine if the idiots do not try to be smart. I know I am quite stupid when it comes to physics, so I would never argue about physics with someone. I know my limits.
DeleteSigh.
DeleteUnderstanding that different people have different perspectives and that one's experiences are rarely if ever generalisable to other persons, let alone to countries, is probably one of the hardest challenges a human faces.
Words matter. Let's leave it at that.
International law makes it very clear that this is an act of invasion. You might as well claim that it's not rape when a non-resisting woman is held down against her will and fucked with a gun pressed to her head. But it's rape because the main qualifying factor lies in the lack of consent.
DeleteThere is no "difference of perspective" here.
Guys, I have no doubt that HuiChun is very intelligent and v highly educated but his style is somehow abrasive at times and it's the classic case of being in the right but failing to convince others that you're right. I see that happening a lot in the programme The Apprentice when you have someone who's clearly full of brilliant ideas but generally disliked by his teammates and he just can't get people to listen to him despite the fact that he probably can come up with the best business strategy.
DeleteSo I'm going to say that I actually believe that Di and Davin have been far more convincing than HuiChun on this occasion, though HuiChun may want to think about what I said about being in the right but failing to get others to listen. Sorry if I am kinda blunt here, but I've seen this happen too often not to just point out what I am observing here.
I'm going to have to point out that the US State Department calling it an "uncontested arrival" is no different from PUB labelling flooding as "ponding". It's bullshit bureaucratic labelling and anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together should be able to call it out for the bullshit that it is.
DeleteFor avoidance of doubt I claim no such thing.
DeleteI like your assertion about international law -- but whose international law? I would be very, very surprised if the Security Council were to consider these events a "threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression" under Article 39. And I would be equally surprised if the General Assembly were to ask for a ruling on this at the ICJ. Because, you know, guess who holds the veto.
As for equating the mother in law to the regional hegemon... #SMH indeed.
Heh. Indeed you are right, Limpeh. I am failing to convince you -- eh, okay. Win some, lose some. Not going to go with the "the silent majority will prove me right!"; that's bollocks.
DeleteI can be as right as I am -- and trust me, the ethnic Russian living in Kharkiv is far less likely to call this incident an invasion than the ethnic Ukrainian living in Kiev -- but it doesn't matter if I've lost my audience.
Ponding is the perfect example of being technically right, but unable to carry an audience. Ponding means that water sticks; flooding means that water will pass through -- and hence ponding is actually worse situation. But that subtlety is lost to an audience that is unfamiliar with the terms.
No point in blaming the audience for not knowing better -- the craftsman needs to work on his own tools.
Oh, and finally. While I agree with Davin's first two paras, I am genuinely amused by the idea that China would rather work with the West than with Russia in this issue. But I could be wrong.
Look HuiChun, haven't I already personally acknowledged that you were (in my words) "fucking brilliant" in a recent comment? I don't doubt your intelligence... I just want to point out that your rather abrasive style does alienate people.
DeleteI was having this vision of Davin, Di, you and me being on the same team in the programme The Apprentice and you would be the intelligent but arrogant person whom Di and Davin hate and they wanna gang up against you to get you eliminated and I'm the one trying to play peacekeeper by trying to remind them that behind the arrogance and abrasive nature, that you are actually quite a talented, intelligent person and if they can get past your abrasive, arrogant nature, you could actually contribute a lot to the team.
So yeah I do see your point about China (ref: Xinjiang and Tibet) - China will either sit on the fence or support Russia, I doubt they will support the West.
So whilst I am not 100% convinced by you... I am more intrigued by your exchange with Davin and Di. Gosh, if this is what you're like online, I can only imagine what you're like in person. I can see myself working with Di an Davin but there's no way I can work with you - no matter how 'fucking brilliant' you are.
Eh, it's a fair cop.
DeleteIn chasing too a narrow definition of right , I'm left in the wrong. My bad.
As for being curt - I reply on mobile. Less words, less RSI. But also more misunderstanding. :P
Whilst I am still trying to play peacekeeper here, I wouldn't reduce your abrasive style to 'being curt'. I'm not gonna beat around the bush here, there is a difference between being curt and being abrasive. You're the latter, you're so insistent on proving to Di and Davin that you're right that you can be like a steamroller.
DeleteI do not condone rape. And I will react strongly to anyone who tries to draw a parallel between my words and any scenario that implies such.
DeleteArticle 2(4) of the U.N. Charter prohibits states from engaging in any threats" or uses of force against other states. Although this clause can be sometimes ambiguous in meaning,moving one state’s armed forces into another state in significant numbers without consent almost certainly falls within Article 2(4)’s prohibition.
DeleteArticle 51 supports the right to self-defense, and additionally, Russia has no international law justification for what it has done. There are three cases in which one state may use force in or against another state: when the Security Council authorizes it under Chapter VII; when the territorial state consents; or when it is acting in self-defense against the territorial state.Russia offered a self-defense argument, but it has sidestepped the argument that it has the consent of the lawful government of Ukraine.
While international law recognizes a "defense of nationals" concept where one state may enter another state to protect its nationals against an imminent threat, states have invoked this right in several situations: when their nationals were taken hostage (US embassy in Tehran) and where their nationals were under actual attack (US nationals in Grenada). These were tangible threats. The claim with Crimea is bullshit. Even though 143,000 Ukranian nationals have been given Russian passports, the "threat" against the new so-called Russian nationals is thin and nebulous at best.
Look HuiChun, this is an English medium here and you are already proving yourself to be a raging dick by the choice of your name. "Regardless of race, language or religion," right? From the get-go you are already portraying yourself to be a flaming Chinese chauvinist. Furthermore, I am supposed to be the tactless twit with Asperger's Syndrome here, and you just made yourself appear to be way higher up the autistic spectrum than where I am - that's an achievement in itself.
This shows how little you know about the atrocities some mothers-in-law are capable of. They are akin to imperialistic dominance. I was using a simple example to show the concept of "uncontested arrival". You do not always need fancy examples or language to explain politics. After all, wars and international disputes often are caused by grown ups posturing on an international stage.
DeleteSee what I mean? I have already labeled HuiChun "abrasive" - but I read a slight implication (ahem) then I will not go into in her reply... and Davin called you a raging dick much higher up the autistic spectrum. LOL. Hence my point about HuiChun being obviously v intelligent but having the social skills of a bull in a china shop when trying to convince others in an argument. And frankly, I don't think HuiChun cares if he insults everyone here until I point out to him, "erm, mate ... You may have made some very valid points but nobody's listening to you..."
Delete#peacekeeper #tryingtobefair
Eeeks, typo: sorry not awake yet, need another coffee: "but I read a slight implication (ahem) in Di's reply that I shall not go into".
DeleteDamn, I am so sorry, I meant to use the word insinuation rather than implication. Yes you can try to subtly imply something through your words but that's an insinuation, not an implication. I need my second coffee of the morning sorry.
DeleteI find fascinating that even after having explicitly said how my name should be pronounced and why it is pronounced that way, both Limpeh and Davin continue to believe that it is a Chinese name.
DeleteIf I was amused by the idea that China would cooperate with the West, I find it hilarious that I'm being called a Chinese chauvinist.
Still. Marginal returns diminish and such is life. :)
Yes you said it should be pronounced the Japanese way = Kaishun, but if I were to write 'Kaishun said blah blah blah' - the other readers who are not aware of your explanation would go, "who?" They would not be able make the connection between Kaishun and 回春 - certainly I couldn't since I don't speak enough Japanese to be able to look at two Kanji characters like that and just go, Kaishun. Nothing personal, I'm just thinking about my many Singaporean readers who will see 回春 and read it as HuiChun - and not Kaishun. Maybe my reader Amber Chong (who lives in Osaka) will be able to make that connection but not many more and if you really, really want us to address you as Kaishun, then why not add an English translation next to the Kanji?
DeleteOh look, it's someone with Special Snowflake Syndrome, too.
DeleteYou are not special. You're not a beautiful and unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else. We're all part of the same compost heap. We're all singing, all dancing crap of the world.
Look. It's a matter of simple courtesy.
DeleteYou prefer to be called Limpeh on this blog instead of your real name - which anyone who's done their homework knows. So sure, I respect that and I don't use it.
I prefer the pronunciation Kaishun - and since you know that I prefer this pronunciation, it is a matter of courtesy to use it.
If I had mispronounced someone's name all my life because I didn't know better, and I am subsequently corrected, I like to think that I would make the effort to use the right pronunciation, particularly when addressing them. Think Jose in Spanish vs Portuguese.
As for why I leave the name the way it is, it a) amuses me to do so; and b) flushes out anyone who either doesn't do their homework or doesn't think to just ask.
PS. You can call me Alex if you like, I don't mind/care either way. I only get pissed off if people misspell my surname and that happens a lot in the UK because they look at my Chinese surname and think 'that can't be right' and they anglicize it.
DeleteHuh, now I'm curious. What do they anglicise it to? There are plenty of possibilities.
DeleteL-A-I-N-G (a common Scottish surname)
DeleteAh, gotcha. Yep.
DeleteIf you think "Liang" is tough, try having "Ng" as a last name in America. I just give up and spell it out "N-g."
DeleteDi, I would like to apologise for dismissing your argument, and also for doing so without explaining why.
DeleteIt seems like common sense to draw analogies from individuals to countries. But these analogies do not always work.
Some people compare the US federal budget to a household budget. They are wrong. One of the better explanations for why they are wrong can be found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=0
Similarly, your analogy to a mother-in-law does not come close to the complexity of the situation.
Imagine, if you will, that instead of being a single individual, your brain, head and left side of your body hates your mother-in-law but the right side of your body loves her. Whatever you say or try to do, your right side holds you back -- and worse of all, which parts of you are right and which parts of you are left are mixed up with each other, with your right index finger trying to break your right ring finger.
And unless your mother-in-law has a history of chopping your knees off and throwing them somewhere into her car (like how the Crimean Tatars were deported in 1944), only for the knees to start filtering back missing some bones...
This is why the analogy simply does not work. You are an individual in control of your whole body. But a country is made up of many individuals; and as individuals, they will not act in exactly the same way.
Realist theory - the dominant theory of international relations - operates on the assumptions that a) states are unitary and rational actors, b) the international system is anarchic and c) the primary concern of all states is security. In the offensive realism that I personally support, in the pursuit of c), states seek to become regional hegemons.
DeleteWhile a country may be made up of many individuals, tribes do not behave like individuals. A brief study of history will tell us that states have been behaving like very nasty individuals.
Thank you. However, there is really no need to over think every argument/point. An "uncontested arrival" = invasion if the host feels it is an invasion even if there are members of that environment who may not vigorously challenge the presence of the "invader". I would feel that my mil was invading if she were to stay in my home uninvited by me. I am the one who sees it as an invasion, even if my husband didn't mind as much or was too chicken shit to protest. If the government of Ukraine sees Russia's presence in its government buidlings as an invasion, then it is an invasion even if some citizens don't. I am an educator, and I like to use simple analogies and language to explain more complex issues. I do not feel the need to be too literal or to break everything down to 100% accuracy/fit. My son understands it.
DeleteAs for the Kaishun/Huichun issue, if the Chinese characters read Huichun, how can it be Kaishun? Couldn't you write the Kaishun in Chinese characters so that it does read Kaishun? I am just asking here. This will save you some frustrations when people call you Huichun.
DeleteDi - he has once explained to me that 回春 in Japanese is read "Kaishun" but of course, in Mandarin it is HuiChun. Mind you, those 2 characters will probably come out quite differently in different Chinese dialects mind you. Nice to see that Kaishun has made some effort to convince you and he has changed his approach somewhat. Right, long day ahead I'm off to get some shut eye...
DeleteI know, but people will only read it the Chinese way because it is in Chinese characters. There must be Chinese characters that actually reads Kaishun. I am really not trying to be difficult here. I am just thinking of suggestions because I can imagine Kaishun's annoyance in the future as people continues to call him Huichun. Aren't there Chinese characters that read Kaishun? I really do not know coz I failed Mandarin at 'A' levels. I can barely read Mandarin now.
DeleteOh, don't worry about it, Di. It's just Special Snowflake Syndrome at play.
DeleteDi, I don't mind if people call me by the wrong pronunciation. But I do mind when someone leaps to conclusions based on a name. And I find it very ironic to use a Chinese name.
DeleteDavin, perhaps you will find with age that the world looks very different once you leave I-695. I'm sure you find where you are very different from Tanjong Pagar.
Sorry I feel like I have to weigh in here..
DeleteAs Limpeh said, seems like you guys just want to gang up on Kaishun / Huichun. Unfortunately it is not so simple to call it an invasion. I am on the fence here and am unsure. If the people of Crimea wants and invited Putin to send troops in, would you still call it an invasion?
What if we use Di's analogy if your husband feels that you are ill treating him and bullying him and he invites his mother in law to come in, will you then call it an invasion? does your husband not have a right to invite people in? (this is slightly flawed as in a marriage, i would hope, both parties have equal say) In Ukraine's case, the Pro Russia Crimean's feel they are the endangered minority and want to leave the Pro Eu Ukraine. Using the Ukrainian constitution to determine legality of the referendum is a flawed argument as well as the constitution basically allows "tyranny of the majority" (i.e. if Crimea wants to leave Ukraine, there must be a referendum over the whole of Ukraine).
If we use a historical contrast, it would be akin to saying the colonies of New England (pre-independent USA) could not leave the United Kingdom unless they had the permission of the people in London. France and Spain which were aiding New England with soldiers and weapons akin to what Russia is doing now.
It is not so simple to call it an invasion just because the majority of the media is calling it such. Obviously other historical parallels can be drawn, with Hitler marching his army into Austria.
Although it has now been admitted that Hitler did not invade Austria but Austria invited him in. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/1515526/We-welcomed-Hitler-admits-Austrias-head.html)
Nothing is black and white, remember the current Ukrainian Government is not elected, therefore there is argument on whether they legitimately represent the "host country", they are an interim government set up only when the previous president fled due to the riots in the country. Just because the "loudest people" win a riot doesn't mean it represents the country and the "will of the people".
Food for thought - in Thailand this is what is happening the rural majority support the government while the middle class minority do not. The protesters are the minority wanting to put in place an unelected "people's council" because they feel the rural majority will just vote in the same government again (they are claiming tyranny of the majority)
History is written by the victors, Media shapes ones thinking. It is better to review both sides before taking a firm stand. I would agree it is not so clear cut to say it is an "invasion" per say. True Russia is using very very flimsy arguments but if you were a Pro Russian Crimean and do not want to be part of the Pro EU Ukraine, you would not call it an invasion, but a liberation.
To quote the Wizard in Wicked - A man's called a traitor, or liberator. A rich man a thief or philanthropist. Is one a crusader or ruthless invader? Its all in which label is able to persist.
I hope this helps to weigh in, I personally am on the fence on this, but just want to weigh in that it is not so clear cut so I have to agree with Kaishun/HuiChun.
Cheers, Ian. Like you say; nothing is black and white.
DeleteAnd as for Thailand, I sense that neither party -- whether Suthep or Thaksin -- can offer a lasting solution for peace and prosperity. There must be a third way; neither current alternative is sustainable.
LIFT, what is your view on the situation in Ukraine? How likely do you think war will break out?
ReplyDeleteJonathan, thanks for your question - may I refer you to Davin's comment below, thanks!
DeleteI'm going to put on my international security scholar hat here.
ReplyDeleteIn not too many words, Putin is an old-school Soviet man who dreams of bringing the old Soviet Union back again. Putin's move on the Ukraine is part of a larger plan for a so-called Eurasian Customs Union - an economic union of post-Soviet states that is meant to be a counterweight to the EU. Right now, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia are signatories to this with Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as potential candidates. However, Putin is very clearly aware that he can't have this Eurasian Customs Union without Ukraine because that's where all of the natural gas is at. If Putin can have Ukraine to himself, he can have the EU by the balls during the winter when the continent is reliant on Russian and Ukrainian gas for central heating. Without Ukraine, Putin's Eurasian Customs Union is nothing but a grouping of banana republics that the EU will laugh at and shrug off.
In the past couple years, Putin's Russia has made it pretty clear that it won't hesitate to use pure brute force to establish protectorates in where it's interested in i.e. Moldova and more recently in 2008, South Ossetia in Georgia. Back then in Georgia, Russia claimed that 1) Russian interests were under threat, 2) extended Russian passports to foreign citizens (namely, Georgians) and 3) once the pretense is made that Russian "citizens" were being threatened, claimed a right to protection. We're seeing the same exact pattern happening in Ukraine right now.
There are so many long-term implications to this that it may permanently change international attitudes towards the sovereignty of states and the general standards of international inviolability of borders between states. Since Russia has demonstrated that it can exclude its borders from international inviolability, its external frontiers can become flexible zones to be pushed in different ways by appealing to the rights of similar ethnicity or passport holders. Russia can face problems in eastern Siberia where they have a ton of natural resources sharing a very long border with China, where there are 6m Russian citizens sharing a border with 90m Chinese citizens. Hypothetically, China could start a fake humanitarian crisis, driving many refugees across the border into Russia and over time, when the Russians get violent, Beijing could send in a land invasion force to grab eastern Siberia.
For now, I think there's a high chance that Beijing will cooperate with the West at the UN Security Council in whatever action(s) the West wants. China has significant interests in Ukrainian agriculture and they don't want it to be affected. This works in tandem with European energy concerns in Ukraine and this will only end badly for Russia.
Well said! Thank you!
DeleteI highly doubt China would utilize the same tactic in Siberia as Russia is unlike Ukraine, a major power with nuclear weapons. Any action like this would most likely provoke a military response by Russia which I highly doubt China would want. Also Russia is China's closest partner in the security council and any attempt to take Siberia would likely lead to China becoming internationally isolated with the east asian states becoming much more suspicious towards China. There is not much long term gain in taking on a big power like Russia which has much more leverage than Ukraine
DeleteRussia is likely to be sanctioned in the short term, however i suspect that nothing much will result from this in the long term similar to the invasion of Georgia. Europe is just not likely to take serious steps to punish Russia unless NATO states are actually invaded.
"Most of Crimea's electricity - as well as water and food - is supplied from the Ukrainian mainland" - http://www.nst.com.my/latest/power-outages-hit-crimea-local-utility-blames-ukrainian-provider-1.529536
ReplyDeleteUkraine should just get those loyal to Kyiv to leave crimea. charge high prices for electricity and water to crimea. and try to join EU asap. and also join NATO or at least sign defence agreements with Poland/Lithuania. or host EU/US bases.