Now this is worrying for two reasons: firstly, that places MH370 on the other side of the Malaysian Peninsular: possibly in the Straits of Malacca, Andaman Sea, the Bay of Bengal or even the Indian Ocean itself. This means that all the rescue effort has been focused on the wrong area in the first few vital days of this operation as all these countries were searching in the South China Sea. Good grief, so much precious time has been wasted in this search and rescue operation - it is unreal. If the plane had crashed in the Andaman Sea instead, then any debris or oil floating on the surface of the water would have had dispersed by the currents, waves and wind in the meantime. If there had been any survivors from the crash, that meant that they had spent 4 to 5 days waiting in a life raft in the middle of the sea waiting to be picked up because the Malaysian authorities had been searching in the wrong sea.
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| The last known radar position of MH370 over the South China Sea. |
Secondly, if the Malaysian air force had this information all this time, why didn't they come forward with this any earlier? Surely they would have and could have shared this vital information with the authorities who were coordinating the search and rescue efforts - why did they hold on to this information for four days before releasing it? All this only further fuels speculation that the Malaysian authorities are not being totally honest and are not telling us everything so far - so in the absence of answers, there have been so many conspiracy theories about the fate of MH370. Some of the theories are quite credible, others are total bullshit written by idiots who have no technical knowledge. Such is the problem with the internet - don't get me started on some of the dumber conspiracy theories out there.
Now the secrecy about this piece of information suggests that there may have been an act of terrorism - this is a theory that is favoured by some as it does provide hope for the families involved that their loved ones may still be alive. The pilot may have switched off the planes transponder - that does not necessarily mean that the plane crashed at that moment, it just meant that the plane could not be tracked by secondary radar used by civilian authorities but it could have been tracked by primary radar used by the military. That is why the plane was picked up on radar flying near Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca. If the plane had experienced some kind of catastrophic sudden mechanical failure, it would not have been able to change course and fly about 500 km from its last known location in the South China Sea to the Pulau Perak vicinity. Hence this suggests that the plane didn't crash, not initially anyway.
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| What was the plane doing flying off course into the Straits of Malacca? |
All we know is that the Malaysian authorities have been giving out scant and conflicting reports - this has angered and frustrated the Chinese authorities as well as the Vietnamese authorities, who have spent much time, resources and effort searching for this plane in Vietnamese territorial waters. What the hell is actually going on here? Some people have suggested that this points to a cover up - the Malaysian authorities know something but they are not telling the truth. Others have suggested that this is nothing but good old fashioned Malaysian incompetency and that there is really nothing sinister - the authorities in KL are just plain clueless. Yet others have suggested a combination of both - a mistake was made initially when they lost contact with MH370 and they are now just trying to cover up that mistake.
Let me share with you something that happened yesterday. I was looking for my hat and gloves (it's March and it still can get to about 5 degrees at night here in London) and I couldn't find them. They were not on the coat rack, not on my shoe rack, not in my coat pockets, not anywhere obvious. I got so fed up as I looked everywhere for them but they were just no where to be found. I started to imagine that I must have dropped them when I last wore them out of the house. I tried to remember where I had been to work or to the gym or to shopping, possible places where I could have taken them off and dropped them. I even contemplated the possibility that they may have been stolen at some point and wondered who might have stolen them. Then finally, I found them in my gym bag - what must've happened was that I had gone to the gym with them but decided after my work out that I was not cold and didn't need to wear my hat and gloves. So I had left them in the gym bag when I got home instead of hanging them up where I normally would.
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| Are the Malaysian authorities covering up a mistake? |
Moral of the story? There is usually a logical explanation for everything - but when we're searching for answers, our minds can go into overdrive and start imagining all kinds of things, some of them are plausible, others ridiculous. It is important to remain rational and calm - that was how I actually remembered where I had left my hat and gloves. If I had allowed myself to get carried away, maybe I would have convinced myself that my hat and gloves had been lost or stolen already. So, for now, let's remain calm and patient - answers will emerge eventually. I am hoping for a miracle for MH370, what is the alternative? It is day 5 and we still have no news. We're all desperate for some answers.
As usual, please do leave a comment below and let me know your thoughts. What's your theory on the fate of MH370? What do you think actually happened to this flight? How do you feel about the efforts of the Malaysian authorities?
Hi Limpeh,
ReplyDeleteWell, I have a MsC. in Aeronautical Engineering and I have worked many years with target tracking. While this doesn't make me an expert in aircraft safety by any means, I am also certainly not clueless.
Basically there are three means to locate an aircraft: the self-identification messages send by the aircraft (i.e. the transponder equipment), which appears in a secondary radar, the information given by the airplane's crew, and data provided by a primary radar (which doesn't require any cooperation from the target).
From what I follow from the news (not sure how complete or accurate is the information), what happened was the following:
1. The aircraft disappeared from the secondary radar used by the Air Traffic Control (ATC) - presumably, because the transponder has either failed or was shut down
2. The ATC attempted to contact the aircrat's crew - presumably, because either the communication equipment has failed or it was not used on purpose
3. The military primary radar, used by the military, still detected the aircraft for about 500 km after it disappeared from the ATC's secondary radar
The first big question is why the military radar data wasn't used by the ATC. Integration of primary and secondary radar data for target tracking purposes is relatively simple using today's technology. Perhaps Malaysia use completely distinct radars for ATC and military surveillance? But if the aircraft disappeared from the secondary radar and the ATC failed to contact the crew, that would characterize (in my mind) a security emergency and hence it was logical for the ATC to ask the military for help .
Even if there were no technical means for the military to transfer the radar data to the ATC, the ATC could simply provide the aircraft's identification information (previously sent by the aircraft's transpoder) to the military. Even if the transponder was shut down a long time ago, a good target tracking system would be able to maintain the association between the identification information and the newer available radar data. Hence, the military would have been able to find the target and track it.
As said, this analysis is based on the current information made available by the news - which might be innacurate or incomplete, and in fact, is likely to be.
Muito obrigado Edson! What do you think then Edson - sheer incompetence on the part of the Malaysians or a more sinister cover up?
DeleteIt seems that the military has officially denied that they had the tracking information confirming a turn-back. It seems that M'sia military does not want the range capability of their radars to be exposed creating an understandable "cover-up" for the sake of military secrets. However Viet military does not care and has also reported they had tracked a turn-back and forwarded their info to M'sia for search and rescue but no action was taken by the latter to acknowledge the info. So to expect information transfer or real time co-operation between civilian ATC and military radar operations is a bit wishful thinking given the light of things.
DeleteThen there is the mystery of live ring tones of passenger's handphones after the event. Anyone knowledgeable of telecoms cares to explain?
Hi and thanks for your message - I have spoken to a telecoms expert and he has given me a very plausible explanation (and even a simple experiment for you to try). But as it is 12:45 am local time here, I will try to write more tomorrow. But there is just so much contradictory information out there from so many sources. Good grief. Sinister conspiracy or sheer incompetence?
DeleteIt might not have been necessarily due to 'sheer incompetence: , but perhaps, due to the Malaysia not fully using what is available in terms of technology, or not having adequate procedures for such kind of emergency, or a combination of both.
DeleteThe secondary radar reads messages from the aircraft's transponder, containing position and identification (ID) information. The primary radar transmits pulses to its survaillance area, and calculates the position of the objects based on the reflections of these pulses. A multi-target tracking system is able to process the radar reflections and associate them with the available aircraft IDs, a process known as "data association".
But a tracking system is capable of tracking a target using only primary radar information, by associating newer radar data with older radar data. And if for a plane, secondary radar data (including aircraft ID) was available in the past, but for some reason it isn't anymore, the tracking system would still normally be able to associate newer primary radar data with that old aircraft ID.
Therefore, from a purely technological perspective, i would say that things could have been done and, based on the information we have, were not. Assuming that Malaysia uses the aforementioned technologies, that may have been caused by inadequate emergency procedures.
We can perhaps conceive that the Malaysian ATC didn't have access to the military (primary) radar. But I don't think it's conceivable that the military surveillance personel don't have access to secondary radar data - which, for purposes of military surveillance, is used to distinguish cooperative targets (i.e. that send their IDs) from non-cooperative targets (that don't send their IDs, and hence are suspect and potentially hostile aircraft).
It is also hard to find a reason for the ATC not asking help from the military surveillance personal when the aircraft both disappeared from the secondary radar and lost communication. Moreover, it is hard to find a reason for the military taking no action in the presence of an aircraft that is clearly not sending its position and ID information, and hence, a suspect or potentially hostille aircraft, i.e.. that may have fallen in terrorist hands.
I prefer to not indulge over conspiracy theories before the "non-conspiracy" theories are exhausted. However, I would say that the possibility that the aircraft had been hijacked by terrorists is very real now. Given the amount of redundancies and system segregation in a modern aircraft like the Boeing 777, I don't think it's conceivable that all transponders and communication systems would fail, but the aircraft would still have the means of keeping in cruise for (at least) another 500 km.
Hi,
DeleteTo expand on your question on military inaction, in a press conference a reporter asked the Military the question on why the military took no action on seeing the unidentified aircraft on radar and the reply was it was not deemed hostile due to it being identified as a civilian aircraft which there were many each day. It was only after the disappearance that the military recalled the old recordings and saw an unidentified aircraft in the timeframe concerned. Now come to think of it how did they know it was a civilian aircraft?? Could they do it just by radar signature? Or aircraft transponder?
Hi there B Tiger, I have spoken to some people on this and can report that:
Delete1. The transponder has been turned off by the time the Malaysian air force tracked the unidentified aircraft over the Malacca Straits.
2. The military primary radar can still identify certain features: speed, size, direction etc of the aircraft - ie. the radar signature and it is with those pieces of information that they have identified it as a civilian aircraft.
3. The aircraft was at that time heading out of Malaysian airspace, not into it - thus if the military were not already aware of the possible link to MH370, they wouldn't have been as anxious to have tracked it.
4. We still don't know how long it appeared on the Malaysian air force radar - which has limited scope and once the plane heads on out to sea, it will be out of range.
5. They have not been forthcoming with all the information they have, that's for sure.
Limpeh and B Tiger,
DeleteTo turn off the transponder is certainly not a "normal" procedure for a civilian aircraft. In Brazil, those are generally considered to be drug trafficking aircraft and hence followed by the air force. Even if the aircraft was apparently heading out of Malaysia, both the Malaysian and Vietnamese military radars reported that the aircraft made an U-turn back to Malaysia. It would be baffling that the Malaysian surveillance personnel would still consider the plane to be a "harmless civilian aircraft" in this case, and ignored it crossing back until the Strait of Malacca.
So... hijack? Is that the most plausible explanation?
DeleteI think so. I can't say for sure since I haven't worked with Avionics since my MsC, But from my knowledge, a common-cause failure of both transponders and all communication systems is an extremely unlikely event for a modern aircraft like the Boeing 777. Unless there was a total electrical failure of the aircraft - but in this case, the stabilization system (fly-by-wire) would also have failed and the aircraft would have gone down (and very likely it would already have been found by now, since it couldn't have went far). Yes, modern commercial aircraft have quite low stability (to save fuel costs) and hence strongly depend on the fly-by-wire system.
DeleteWithout fly-by-wire, the aircraft wouldn't have made a U-turn and certainly wouldn't have crossed back to the Straits of Malacca losing a mere 1,000 ft altitude. Furthermore, it seems that the aircraft was still sending maintenace pings after it disappeared from the secondary radar (http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/mh370-sent-pings-after-going-missing-sources?page=3), so if that's true, it would rule out the possibility of total electrical failure.
Well, of course I can come up with explanations other than terrorism. Like, an extremely rare High Intensity Radiated Field (HIRF) that disrupted all communication and navigation equipment, which would explain why the pilot became confused and guided the aircraft to the completely wrong direction. But that's my opinion as a "clueless person", HIRF is really not one of my expertises...
This is a good source of information - http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html
ReplyDeleteForum is highly moderated however to prevent leakage of any military/industrial secrets but it is visited by aviation industry people and highly improbable theories are quickly debunked so it is a pretty intelligent source.
Thank you - I am so tired of reading conspiracy theories online... Always good to have a credible source of info. I'm going there now.
DeleteAlex,
DeleteI just got a chill up my spine. Latest report is the MH370 Boeing's engines, as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program, continued to send info automatically to Boeing for about four hours past the time it disappeared. Add to that the mysterious live ring tones of passengers after the disappearance. Could that mean that it might have been hijacked, and the cover-up feeling that the authorities are giving the public could be a sign that negotiations might be going on with the hijackers behind the public.... and that the people could still be alive. The silence could be so as not to jeopardize negotiations and the plane could have landed. Am I hoping for too much?
OK I can help you there as well.
Delete1. The engine's manufacturers are Rolls Royce not Boeing per se, Boeing makes the plane, RR makes the engine. And this is untrue what you wrote - there has been a rumour going round that the RR Engines send information via satellite back to the RR HQ in England every 4 hours. Now this is actually quite an expensive exercise to send that much data for every Boeing flight like that via satellite when most of the time, such data isn't needed real time. If something goes wrong, the plane usually lands and then they can look up the data in the engine itself and deal with it in the hangar at the airport - even if there's something going wrong mid-air, you can't do anything to fix it till the plane is on the ground (ie. divert the plane to the nearest airport for an emergency landing). On a practical basis, it is only when you have a case like MH370 when you need to retrieve that data to uncover what actually happened, So I'm afraid that's someone spreading a rumour that is completely false, about the engine.
As for the ring tones, it would be extremely easy for the authorities to trace the call with a high degree of accuracy if the phone is ringing. Sometimes, a phone will ring despite being unable to connect or before it connects. Try this simple exercise. Sometimes I can't find my phone and I'll borrow someone else's phone and call myself: I would dial my number and press call - often I would hear it ringing a few times before the first ring comes from my mobile. Why does this happen? It's simply a default setting to inform the caller that the network is 'trying' to connect your call and sometimes this takes a few moments if the network is busy - complete silence may be confusing as you may think that the call was unsuccessful and hang up, so you hear a ring tone. It doesn't mean that the other phone is ringing (yet), it means that the network is busy and your call is being processed. Perhaps they can assign a different kind of message like, "please hold, your call is being connected" rather than a live ring tone for this - as this is misleading, but hey, that came from my telecoms expert.
As for hoping, we all hope for a miracle my friend.
More on the RR Engines:
Delete1. The only time when such detailed information may be sent from the engines in real time during the flight is in the testing phase, when they are trying out a brand new engine and are not sure if everything will work as it should - but even at that stage, the information is not sent via satellite but through a VHF link (ie. all of the plane's secondary radar communication).
2. Any other communication would usually be done via the plane's transponder which is a far more efficient and inexpensive way to send data from a plane to ground control.
3. Boeing does a maintenance and monitoring programme but this is NOT done in real time but when planes are scheduled for maintenance, the engineers will go into the hangar, get the information they need and deal with the plane there. Like I said, what are you gonna do if something goes wrong on a flight halfway across the ocean? You can't even send in an engineer to parachute onto the plane to fix an engineer mid-flight. There is detailed info, but it is stored on the plane.
Hang on, I've just read this: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140313 which may prove that you're right and the engineer I have spoken to is wrong.
DeleteSorry about this - I too can be fed incorrect information on this case!
Alex,
DeleteI know RR engines automatically sending snapshots is believable because the data would be small bursts. It's like SMS-sized text logs every 30 minutes of engine operations. RR being a global company with thousands of engines sold would be able to justify a low bandwidth data collection global network to collect these snapshots economically. The payoffs for RR would be less liability claims from engine faults and better product reliability.
Anyway I used to be involved in aviation for a while. Really enjoyed it. A better read by Reuters mirroring my thoughts is at:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories&mg=reno64-wsj
Hope the people are still alive somewhere.
Yo LIFT, hope you're not too busy with work. So what is your schedule like this weekend?
ReplyDeleteSorry I've not gotten back to you - just got through a series of meetings.
DeleteI am working Sunday but not Saturday, so what do you fancy doing say Saturday afternoon in town?
PS. Reply to this and leave me your email address, we'll confirm details that way. I won't publish your comment with your email address, okay?
Hello Limpeh!
ReplyDeleteI'm a new commenter here! I've been following your posts for a long time now, but just haven't commented on any. Thanks for writing and bringing attention to so many issues here in Singapore and elsewhere! I really like your fluid writing style and humour haha :) Anyway, I wanted to ask you some questions, not sure if you would have some insight into such things:
1) Firstly, I graduated from SMU 2 years back with a BSocSci (Psychology) Degree, and have gone on to do research in government and currently, an European company. Hmm. My issue is that, I'm getting rather jaded with the industry I am in (Human Capital/Global Leadership/Talent Management field). I find that every single event I attend repeats the same issues over and over (talent management problems, retention problems, employee engagement blahblah) but there are no solutions in sight. People are just content talking and talking but I don't see any breakthrough or creative solutions. Or they just write fanciful reports and sell them. I also find that Singaporeans (be it corporates or individuals) very rarely trully appreciate research and the knowledge that it imparts. I find alot of it is extremely transactional: 'I don't care what your research really says, I'm paying you money to do as I say'. I find that such attitudes completely kill my enjoyment of research - it's no longer about what the data says, it's about everything else.
I find this all quite exhausting cause my main reason of being a researcher is because I want to help people. And knowledge is power to me, so my role as a researcher is to impart this knowledge to people and be part of something that can inspire and enlighten people regarding their ways of thinking - in this case, their thinking around talent management in their organisations. However, I find the Singapore culture very restrictive and unappreciative of research in general, plus the whole industry just goes around in circles talking about the same things... I'm someone who really needs to see the end-result of the process - that my research or whatever has contributed to something tangible for a client or for an industry perhaps. But I don't see that happening in this country and in this industry. It doesn't seem to be that way in the UK (my company's HQ is there), their research there is sooo interesting and engaging and the conversations people there have are so enlightening and vibrant. But I dont think I'd be based in the UK very soon as the main purpose I was employed was to handle the research in Singapore.
Anyway, long story, but I am thinking of a career switch. And one of the careers I'm seriously considering is Sports Psychology. I feel that it can combine my two loves (sports - I used to be a badminton player though not at a national team level and psychology), I love guiding/counselling people, it is a more dynamic job (I'm not stuck at a desk) and I feel that it is something that is meaningful as I can work with individuals as compared to organizations. The thing is, I'm not too sure with my current degree, what kind of path I can pursue to become a Sports Psychologist and whether that is worth it... What do you think?
2) Secondly, and something completely unrelated to the above haha. I wanted to ask - what sorts of gym workouts would you recommend for ladies who want to tone their arms? I know this is completely random, but as I used to play badminton and used to train really hard, I had built up quite a bit of muscles in my arms. But since I've not trained competitively for like.. 7 years already.. it's obviously no longer toned and there's quite abit of fat in the area. I've read alot about arm toning and nothing really seems to stand out or work, so I thought I could ask you as you used to be a gymnast and you're still really fit. Haha.
I apologise for the huge wall of text above. Hope you are having a good rest now Limpeh!
Cheers,
Z
OK a reply for you as promised.
Delete1. Your experience of the corporate world is pretty typical and I say, you have two choices, either accept that this is the way it is gonna be or simply leave and pursue something that you truly believe in. However, you will be giving up financial stability so you have to weigh up the pros and cons.
2. Sports psychology is a very, very niche area because few people actually do sports at a high enough level to justify paying for a sports psychologist. I have had the privilege of the services of sports psychologists when I was in Singapore (SSC paid for it) but really, I fear that you may be barking up the wrong tree as you will not be able to find enough work to sustain you financially. You're probably better off looking at other kinds of performance related therapy for problem kids - as the uncle of a disabled child, I can tell you that loving parents will spend a mountain of money on therapy to help their kids and that way, you're never short of work and will always have a steady stream of clients because there will always be kids who need this kind of help.
And sorry, you're barking up the wrong tree by asking me on advice on toning your arms. I don't know.
Oh! Sorry I had one more question I missed out earlier.
ReplyDeleteYou;ve mentioned working in China etc and I'm sure your Chinese is super duper zai! As I'm learning new languages now (Korean and French) and trying to brush up on my Chinese - how can I go about doing it? Brushing it up to the level of PRC Chinese.. is that possible? haha. Cause I've looked around some Chinese language sites but they are mostly for beginners/pre-intermediate. I still speak Chinese very often in my daily life, but do stumble because there's a particular word or description I don't know. What can I do to improve this - is this a Vocabulary related issue?
Thanks Limpeh!
Hi there - I'm having a busy day so I will deal with the other questions later, but on the issue of Singaporeans who have worked in China. Let's get real here - the standard of our Chinese will NEVER be the same as a first language speaker who was born and bred in China and more importantly, educated in China where Chinese is the language of instruction. In Singapore, English is the language of instruction for subjects like maths, science, geography, history etc. Where Singaporeans do excel though is acting as the conduit between East and West - there are foreign companies in China who need someone who is effectively bilingual to help them communicate with the local Chinese suppliers, factories, manufacturers, government officials. Many of these local Chinese people speak little or no English and it can be intensely frustrating for an Angmoh to try to get anything done in China when they don't speak English. A good middleman is going to be necessary to help the Angmoh overcome language and cultural barriers and that's where Singaporeans are well placed to help foreign companies operating in China - until the day when sufficient young Chinese people master English to a decent standard, many foreign companies in China are still reliant on such middlemen. Sure there are local middlemen now, for example, I know of someone in Beijing who was sent to America to be educated so his English is American-standard and his job is to hold the hands of Americans doing business in China, not a bad job if you ask me.
DeleteAs for brushing up on your Chinese, I wonder what it is your aim? If you need to acquire a certain set of vocabulary relevant to your industry, then it is probably a good idea to tackle a certain area - set yourself small goals which are achievable. Otherwise if you set yourself a mammoth task, you're setting yourself up for failure. Small steps please, achievable goals, one step at a time.
I think working in China or making a few PRC friends would improve your standard of Mandarin in super quick time. I know mine did.
DeleteWell my French definitely improved a lot when I was living in France... but that was because I made an effort - it is very tempting to mingle amongst the English-speaking expats in Paris and yes I did have English-speaking friends then as well but most of my friends then were local French people.
DeleteFrom all the news about how/what the Malaysian authorities replied/spoke these past few days, my guess is that the Malaysians know roughly where the plane went and can guess with some confidence where the plane crashed or landed.
ReplyDeleteThe game now is blame shifting. If it's a terrorist hijack, the Malaysian Customs & Authorities would be deemed responsible. If it's pilot/crew suicide/error, then MAS would be responsible. Ever wondered why Najib has only done one press conference so far? If it's any other country, there would be a crisis team reporting directly to the head of government with daily press briefings.