Climate change and Singapore - new records and what to expect

Hi there guys, in today's post, I am going to talk about climate change in Singapore as the temperature in Ang Mo Kio hit 37 degrees recently, matching an all time record high. Whilst Singaporeans are used to the high temperatures in their tropical climate, this has once again ignited the discussion on climate change and what one can expect in terms of the impact on the weather in Singapore. So here are some changes to the local weather that one can expect in this context. 

1. It could get a lot hotter than 37. 

In terms of heatwaves and high temperatures, actually 37 degrees is not that high. Records were already broken elsewhere in South East Asia just in April 2023 with new records for highest temperatures set in Vietnam (44.2 degrees), Laos (43.5 degrees) and Thailand (45.4 degrees). Even in Malaysia, records weren't broken this time but their all time highest temperature record is still 40.1 degrees. Even the UK which is typically known for our cool and wet weather recorded 40.3 degrees last summer. Thus we can expect the record of 37 degrees in Singapore to be broken in due course, it is relatively low compared to all of these other countries in the region. I have travelled through areas in Africa, the Middle East and Europe when the temperature was above 40 degrees - it is frightfully uncomfortable but thankfully, this kind of weather is only experienced at the height of summer. Take Madrid in Spain for example, in the summer months, the temperature there regularly exceeds 40 degrees but in winter, it can snow. However, given that Singapore is a tropical country, it could get this hot any time of the year - there is literally no escape from the relentless, stifling heat. The only reason why it is considerably lower is the moderating effect of the sea around Singapore, as the water doesn't heat up as rapidly as the land. That was why the highest temperature of 37 degrees was recorded in Ang Mo Kio in central Singapore, approximately 8 km from the nearest stretch of coastal waters -  it was the inland regions of Thailand and Vietnam that got ridiculously hot back in May. In the coming years, the whole planet is getting hotter and to be fair to Singapore, it has actually done far more than most countries to adapt to this harsher, hotter climate. There are so many trees and parks to try to mitigate the urban heat island effect of a densely populated city but there is only so much a very small country like Singapore could do in the face of global climate change, if the entire planet is going to get a lot hotter. 

2. More intense downpours and flash floods

A direct consequence of high temperatures is more intense downpours - hot air can hold a lot more water vapour than cooler air, we can expect even more intense downpours that could overwhelm the existing drainage infrastructure. This would cause more flash floods and whilst they are unlikely to cause any kind of injury or deaths, it could inflict millions of dollars of damage to businesses which are located at street level and underground. You might think, well Singapore is no stranger to such tropical monsoons, we are used to heavy rain but a lot of the drainage infrastructure was built decades ago and a lot more money would need to be spent by both the government and ,private businesses to deal with the threat of more flash floods and this cost would be passed over to tax payers and customers of affected businesses. In any case, even if there is a desire to improve the drainage infrastructure, the amount of disruption it would cause would be massive. Take an urban area like Orchard Road for example, in order to increase the amount of rainwater that the drainage system can handle during a very intense rain storm, you would need to replace so many underground tunnels and widen existing storm drains. How are you going to do that when there are already so many buildings, offices, shops, cafes, roads and other facilities already in the area? In the short run, there are no easy solutions for this problem. Politicians would be unwilling to rip up busy urban areas to improve the drainage infrastructure given the kind of inconvenience it would cause to the locals, so they would typically kick the can down the road and hope that things would never get too bad. But just to put things in perspective, during an intense rainstorm in central Italy in May 2023, more than half the annual rainfall fell in a 36 hour period, causing extensive floods which created total chaos - so when something like that happens, the locals then start asking, "why didn't the government do anything to improve the drainage infrastructure in light of climate change? They had so many years to prepare for this situation, but did nothing!"

3. The average temperature will become higher

I remember when I lived in Singapore back in the 1980s and 1990s, we used to wake up very early to take advantage of the coolest part of the day. School started at 7:30 am and we would usually have PE as the first lesson of the day before it got too hot. The range of temperatures in the tropics is relatively small but it was enough to make a difference. At night and in the early mornings, it was actually quite comfortable as long as the temperature was in the mid-20s but by mid-morning, it would become hot and once the temperature exceeded 30 degrees, we would avoid being outdoors. I would avoid hawker centers as it would be over 30 degrees at lunchtime but by dinner time, it would be a lot more bearable. The temperature range between the coolest hours at dawn to the hottest mid-afternoon peaks could be as little as 8 degrees (26 to 34 degrees) but it still makes a massive difference when it is a closer to 26 rather than 34. If we experience highs of 37 degrees regularly, then it would be much harder for the air to cool down overnight, then night time lows will be more like 29 degrees rather than 26 and even by around 8 pm, it may still be over 30 degrees - making your typical hawker center dinner experience a lot more sticky, sweaty and uncomfortable. PE lessons for children in the morning may have to be shortened or moved indoors, given that the morning temperature may be around 29 to 30 degrees even at 7:30 am.  The window of slightly cooler temperatures will be greatly reduced as night time would provide little or no respite from the heat. When I visit Singapore, I like to walk around at night and do sightseeing after the sun has set as it is a lot more bearable; that may not be possible any more in a few years if night time temperatures stay stubbornly above 30, 31 degrees, forcing the locals into the malls and other air-conditioned places like in the Middle East. It will be a shame if it happened - outdoor activities like night markets have always been a part of the local culture. 

4. The wet bulb temperature will be horrible

Go to East Coast Park and you will see a lot of Singaporeans still jogging and doing other outdoor activities in the tropical heat because they are used to the heat - however, coping with the humidity when it is so hot is more than just a matter of getting use to it. We need to understand the concept of wet bulb temperature: it is the temperature measured by a thermometer with its bulb wrapped in a wet cloth. This is different from a dry bulb temperature for an important reason: our body relies on sweating as a natural mechanism to mitigate the effects of very hot weather. The sweat needs to be able to evaporate in order to cool down the surface of your skin, that can only happen when the air is dry enough for the sweat to evaporate. However, if the air is both very hot and humidity is near or at 100%, then you have the sauna effect where the sweat on your skin simply cannot evaporate and no matter how much sweat your body produces, you simply cannot cool down - this can be very dangerous as it can lead to heat stroke that could lead to death. I am sure you've heard of the saying, "it's a dry heat", that phrase is used to describe a situation whereby the temperature is very high, over 40 degrees, but the air is so dry that any sweat evaporates quickly and your body is able to regulate its temperature through the sweating mechanism. However, that is what you would experience in places the Sahara desert rather than Singapore - you're far more likely to succumb to heat stroke in Singapore with the wet bulb temperature at 35 degrees than sightseeing in a place like Egypt where the temperature is 45 degrees because of this difference in humidity. Thus this increase in wet bulb temperature in Singapore will curtail a lot of outdoor activities that Singaporeans have enjoyed over the years, forcing them indoors to avoid heat exhaustion. Please watch the video I have embedded below to learn more about this important concept of wet bulb temperature and why this would be very crucial in a place like Singapore.

5. The rich won't notice this change, but the poor will suffer the most. 

Ultimately, this change wouldn't affect everyone in Singapore equally. If you are jogging in a park in Singapore, you can just stop when you feel just too hot and head for the nearest air-conditioned cafe to get an ice cold drink and an ice cream there. But if you're a construction worker on a job site at 2 pm when the wet bulb temperature is painfully high, your foreman will be barking at you to just drink some water and get back to work no matter how uncomfortably hot you feel. There is a price difference of a few dollars between the same meal you get in a hawker center and an air-conditioned food court - that is the price you pay for dining in air-conditioned comfort that richer people would gladly pay for.  And if it all gets way too much for the rich, they can always fly off somewhere much colder for a nice winter holiday. Likewise, even if public transport is air-conditioned in Singapore, you would probably still have to walk a bit from the nearest bus stop or train station to your final destination whilst rich people can just take a taxi direct to their destination without ever experiencing the tropical heat. In a place like Singapore, rich people can spend a lot of money to live in air-conditioned comfort whilst that is a luxury that poor people would struggle to afford. Thus if the average temperatures in Singapore goes up by just three degrees, the rich would barely even notice it whilst the poor would suffer a lot. Imagine if we had a night where the temperature at midnight was still at 31 degrees -the very rich people with air-conditioning wouldn't even notice whilst a poor person would be lying in bed sweating, unable to sleep in the stifling heat. For those who are ordinary folks, those who aren't exactly living in poverty, air-conditioning will become a necessity rather than a luxury and thus that would eat into their disposable income, leaving them with a lot less money for other things that they may need. Thus it will really be the ordinary poor working class folks who will feel the impact of climate change the most.

6. Air-conditioning making the problem far worse

Whilst Singaporeans have always turned to air-conditioning to provide much needed relief from the tropical heat, this actually makes the situation far worse in the long run. Air-conditioning units pump out a lot of heat when they are running and that heat is simply going to enter the surrounding area; so when you have a whole cluster of big buildings all running air-conditioning massive units, the cumulative effect of that would be to raise the street temperature by quite a few degrees. So even if the air temperature is just 33 around degrees, small pockets of extreme heat can build up say in a bus station, where the surface is mostly concrete and you have plenty of buses with their engines running, surrounded by buildings with many air-conditioning units pumping out hot air and so it wouldn't be unusual to find pockets of extreme heat between 40 to even 50 degrees under such circumstances. The irony is that Singaporeans have become accustomed to air-conditioned comfort, I remember back in the 1980s when air-conditioned buses were a novelty and the vast majority of buses didn't have air-con. We used to have to pay a higher fare for the air-conditioned buses but today I think most Singaporeans would be mortified at the thought of riding a bus without air-conditioning. Whilst air-conditioning provides a much needed relief from the relentless tropical heat in Singapore, they are not so much a solution but a factor that is making the problem far worse in the long run. If a whole new generation of Singaporeans grew up getting used to sleeping, studying, socializing, dining, shopping even exercising in air-conditioned comfort, then relying heavily on air-conditioning simply becomes the new norm in Singapore and this simply makes the whole situation a lot worse with so many heavy duty air-conditioning units pumping out so much heat in urban areas. I have embedded a really well made video on this topic; so the city featured in that video is Hong Kong but the problems and challenges are much the same. 

7. The frog being boiled to death in Singapore

Finally, one other factor that makes this an even more complex problem for Singapore is the 'frog being boiled to death' situation - so as the story goes, if you drop a frog into very hot water, it would sense the danger of the very hot water and jump out of it at once to save its life. But if you were to put a frog in a beaker of water and slowly heat the water to boiling point, the cold blooded frog wouldn't realize that the water is getting dangerously hot and slowly get boiled to death. There was an incident back in June 2015 when three British soldiers died of heat exhaustion during a military exercise in Wales when the temperature hit 27 degrees. When this news reached Singapore, it was met with mockery given that 27 degrees would be considered a cool day in Singapore whilst in the UK, it was enough to make the British soldiers drop dead from the heat. Thus whenever we get a heatwave in the UK, we're not used to it and we do react to it - thus we are like the frog desperately trying to climb out of the hot water to save its life. I see this as a good thing as it will shock us into taking the necessary actions to deal with the many challenges of climate change. However, when you talk about high temperatures to Singaporeans, they just roll their eyes as if it's no big deal, it is something they have learnt to cope with all these years and they are used to it. However, if daily highs in Singapore go up from 33 or 34 to around 36 or 37 degrees, then we face the situation whereby Singaporeans simply go into denial and say, "come on, it's no big deal, it's not that much hotter, there's no need to do anything about the situation, no need to panic - it will be business as usual for us at 37 degrees." When it comes to climate change, the sooner you do something about the situation, the easier it will be to solve it. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away, it will simply make it a lot worse and by the time things get so bad that you eventually need to do something about it, the solutions are going to have to be a lot more drastic and costly. Will the government in Singapore act like that frog that is slowly being boiled to death, or will they opt to act now?

So there you go, that's it from me on this topic - what do you think? Do you live in Singapore and what is your reaction to the prospect of even higher temperatures? How do you think the government in Singapore would react to the challenges of global warming? Do you think there's even anything they could do if sea levels actually rise and drown coastal regions like Marine Parade and Pasir Ris? Or would it simply be business as usual in Singapore for the foreseeable future? What urgent measures would you like this government to take? Please leave a comment below and many thanks for reading.