Hola y hej! I am back guys and sorry about missing one week - I have been away in the UAE, I had a business trip to Dubai and then decided to extend it a couple of days to have a holiday there to travel around the region a bit. I did visit so many of the sites featured on TAR in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and you can see it all on my Instagram. But getting right back to the action on this season of TAR, yes I was right in predicting that Luis & Michelle were going to win the mega-leg in Spain despite the fact that Derek & Claire did begin the second half of that leg in first place. I was wrong though when it came to the team that was eliminated - I thought Marcus & Michael would somehow power through and overtake the twins Emily & Molly but that was not the case as they had fallen way too far behind in the first half of that meg-leg to stage a comeback, but credit to Emily & Molly for pulling through this leg in spite of Emily's painful knee injury. But as always, let's start with the average rankings after leg 10 in Ronda, Spain as this mega-leg did produce a shocking result.
Average ranking statistics after leg 10 in Ronda
Derek & Claire: 3.25
Marcus & Michael: 3.37 (eliminated in Ronda)
Luis & Michelle: 3.5
Emily & Molly: 4.12
Aubrey & David: 6
OMG I was shocked, Marcus & Michael are eliminated?!
This is very interesting because one of the strongest teams got eliminated, statistically, Marcus & Michael came into this leg as the joint strongest team (equal with Derek & Claire) so for the strongest team to be eliminated is quite significant but such is the nature of the mega-leg - the fact that they had a small head start ahead of the other teams wasn't enough to give them the buffer they needed over the course of two roadblocks and two detours (along with a lot of navigation). But it wasn't one small mistake, but it was the accumulation of several mistakes - none of the teams ran a perfect leg in Ronda and both sides of the detour were time consuming and difficult to get right the first time. So whilst the other teams did leave the door open for Marcus & Michael to catch up, they really needed to be flawless in Ronda to have avoided elimination and alas for the brothers, their time on the race was up. I admit this outcome did surprise me given that they had been such a strong team and Emily's knee was already giving her so much pain at this point, but this goes to show what a strong team Emily & Molly are, having beaten one of the strongest teams in this season to stay in the race. Credit to them and so one can only wonder just how much better they would have performed if Emily's knee wasn't this injured.
So how was the second half of the mega-leg in Ronda?
I was very happy with this leg in Ronda actually, both sides of the detour did reflect different aspects of the local culture and were sufficiently challenging. Hats off to Michelle for her attitude on the roadblock, you know they're always going to ask you to do this like that on TAR so you shouldn't be surprised at all when you encounter a challenge like that. There was so much drama with Claire and Aubrey doing that roadblock in Ronda - they are afraid of heights, I get it, but just how much research did they do before going on the race? And it was a roadblock, why did those teams pick the team member who was afraid of heights - why didn't Derek and David do this roadblock then if they were less afraid of heights? Look, I had just come back from Dubai where I made sure I visited the Leap of Faith, a huge water slide at the Aquaventure water park where you drop from the height of a six-storey building on a near vertical slide reaching speeds of 80 km/h (50 miles per hour). Was I afraid? Yes, of course I was. Was it scary? Yes, it was that moment when you actually do feel weightless for just a split second as you drop down so quickly. But nonetheless, did I do it knowing that thousands of people do it everyday and nobody got hurt? Of course, I have complete faith in the way that water park was set up to give thrill-seekers the scare of their life without causing any injury. This slide was made famous by Mika & Canaan from TAR S15 when she refused to go down that water slide and it led to their elimination in Dubai - so for all of you armchair critics at home saying, Alex you can't judge these racers as you haven't done these things yourself, guess what? I actually do travel the world seeking out challenges like that featured on TAR, the only difference is that I'm rich enough to travel and pay for these adventures (like many rich tourists do), I am not doing it to win money on a show like TAR. Okay so let's quickly move onto the next leg in Iceland, another country which I have visited before and know well.
Average ranking statistics after leg 11 in Iceland
Derek & Claire: 2.88
Luis & Michelle: 3.33
Emily & Molly: 4
Aubrey & David: 5.77 (eliminated in Gullfoss)
Has TAR visited Iceland before?
Oh yes indeed, twice before. Way back in TAR S6 and then more recently in TAR S30 so this was their third visit there.
Was this leg too predictable though?
Unfortunately, this was a much more predictable leg in that the strongest team won and the weakest team was eliminated, it seems fair on one level but on the other hand, that makes it less exciting. I have visited two locations on this leg actually: the Silfra Fissure as well as the Gullfoss waterfall. I was quite happy with this leg as it did showcase the natural beauty of Iceland and Reykjavik the capital is surprisingly small for a capital city, most people go to Iceland to experience the great outdoors anyway. Now at the beginning of this leg, I had thought that it was a forgone conclusion that Emily & Molly would be the ones eliminated due to Emily's knee injury, she was already in so much pain at this stage but I was not expecting David to struggle this much with swimming. I get it, he's not a strong swimmer, but he did manage to complete both the roadblock (which involved some swimming) as well as the memory challenge twice, so it was not like he was a total non-swimmer, just not a strong one. But at that point, the twins had already departed so even if they did attempt that challenge a third or a fourth time, that would not have changed the outcome of them finishing this leg in last place anyway. I hate to be harsh but memory challenges and swimming are fairly routine in TAR. If I was a weak swimmer, I would have taken some lessons and had loads of practice prior to going on the race to boost my confidence when it came to doing such challenges. Nonetheless, they went into this leg as the weakest team (and that's why I do the average ranking statistics) so it wasn't that much of a surprise that they finished last in Iceland. Derek & Claire got the memory challenge right on the first attempt, the other two teams both took only two attempts but even after two attempts, Aubrey & David's guesses were still so wrong, thus this wasn't just about David's swimming abilities - as a team, they were so much weaker when it came to such complex memory challenges which are quite often used in TAR.
Who would go on to win the TAR S34?
I am willing to go out on a limb and predict firstly that it won't be Emily & Molly on the basis of Emily being injured at this stage, but a lot of it depends on just how physical the last leg will be. I see teams climbing a big bridge in the previews, but that might be a detour that Molly could do. But Emily is so determined that she has done so many physical challenges in the last few legs, her adrenaline could power her through something like that but this is the final and they are up against two really strong teams here. Derek & Claire are the clear favourites with a stronger average statistic, but I think Luis & Michelle are a lot stronger than their statistics suggest. They had a terrible first leg in Germany, where they finished way down in 10th and that has dragged their average down but if you were to look at their performance from leg 2 onwards, they have always been top 5 with three wins. If we disregard that first leg then their average is 2.5 which makes them stronger than Derek & Claire, or at least equally strong. I would say that both these teams are just as strong but we have also seen their weaknesses - they have made mistakes navigating and Claire has had her share of breakdowns. She actually completed that roadblock successfully in Ronda on the first attempt, then wasted precious time having a good cry and throwing a tantrum after that, allowing Aubrey & David to finish 2nd in that leg ahead of them, which meant that Aubrey & David got a 15 minute head start in leg 11 in Iceland, all because Claire wanted to have a cry. Personally, I would rather Luis & Michelle won just because I like them more, they have a much better attitude but hey, I'm sensible and reasonable enough to know that what I think would not affect the outcome of a race that had been filmed months ago. So my head says Derek & Claire will win but my heart wants Luis & Michelle or Emily & Molly to win.
Am I too harsh on Claire for her breakdown in Ronda?
Well it depends on how you approach the topic - if I saw a friend being so distraught, I would react with compassion but allow me to share with you an aspect of my upbringing. I trained as a gymnast since I was a child and was on the national team for many years, including being a former national team captain as well as a three-time national champion. However, there were so many talented gymnasts at that time so my place on the national team could never be taken for granted. It was not good enough to simply be brilliant in training, the coaches had to know that you would not crumble under pressure when you represented the country at a major international competition. So if you ever cried or even showed emotion that suggested that you would crack under pressure (and thus fail to perform your routine well), then you would be taken off the team. So showing any kind of emotion, especially crying was strictly forbidden in that context, there was a huge penalty for that - it meant you were regarded as mentally weak and couldn't be trusted. So even as a teenager, I was trained to hide my emotions, develop this stoic exterior and go full poker face - so even if I did feel nervous, scared or upset, I was trained to hide my emotions and present this very calm demeanor at the competition. I did all that just to win some medal at a competition that didn't come with a one million dollar cash prize. What I am describing is fairly standard for anyone who has taken part in competitive sport or even has to do a job where they face stressful situations on a daily basis (such as a nurse in the A&E department of a hospital), so no, I don't think I'm being too harsh on Claire. You want to win one million dollars, you suck it up, park your emotions aside and focus on the task at hand like an adult rather than cry like a toddler throwing a tantrum. I am human too, yes I do experience emotions like fear and anxiety - I have learnt to control them better over the years, rather than crumble under pressure like Claire did.
May I bitch about what I have seen on social media?
The reason why I choose to blog is because of the kind of inane comments I come across on social media. There are people posting this like, "I want (insert name of team) to win!" And I'm like, do you know that the race has already concluded? This was all filmed back in May to June 2022, that team that won has already run their final leg about six months ago already. This is not like some other reality TV show like I'm a Celebrity or Big Brother where you get a say in the outcome. So it's like saying, I really want America to win the gold medal for women's volleyball at the 2016 Olympics when that even has clearly already happened in the past, the gold medal was handed out already (spoiler: China won that gold medal at the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janerio, America took the bronze). However it would be completely different if we were talking about an event in the future, like if you really want America to win the gold medal in women's volleyball at the 2024 Paris Olympics, that event hasn't taken place yet and we don't know who would win that gold medal. There are some processes where we can have an influence in the outcome - say if there is a local election (such as the recent American mid-terms). You can donate money to the campaign of your choice of candidate and even get involved in the local campaigning process by volunteering with the political party to drum up local support. If it is a reality TV show where you get to vote by text to influence the outcome, then you can spend a lot of money to do just that. But not only do we have zero influence over the outcome of TAR, the whole series was filmed several months ago and the winner has already been determined. And besides, these people saying that they want this team to win because their personality rather than how they performed on the race - oh dear, I'm afraid it's all so incredibly shallow and vapid, that's the average level of conversation on social media and hence that's why I choose to blog here instead on my own terms.
Alright guys, just one more episode to go for TAR S34, as always, leave a comment below and many thanks for reading.
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