1. Tony
2. Mr Hall
3. Melanie
4. Myself (along with everyone who was at gymnastics training that night with Melanie)
5. Everyone I have been in contact with at work, socially etc since I saw Melanie that night.
6. Everyone who has been in contact with anyone in category 5 above.
7. Everyone who has been in contact with anyone in category 6 above, repeat to infinity FFS.
Now I certainly think that Tony should be in self-quarantine as he has not only been in a high-risk hot spot, he is also showing symptoms. But what about Mr Hall? Should he be in self-quarantine since he isn't showing any symptoms? Does this depend on if and when Mr Hall starts to show symptoms (however mild) or does it depend on the nature of his contact with Tony? Like was he simply in the same room at the same time as Tony but not sitting within like 2 or 3 meters of him? Did he shake Tony's hand or had any other kind of physical contact? Did they go out for lunch together and share food together? And then there's Melanie - she is in self-quarantine because her father told her to do so, but is that the right decision? She said she was in close physical contact with her father for a few hours when they caught up - so her logic was, if my father had caught the Corona virus, then he had ample opportunity to pass it to me that evening. So she decides she needs to do the right thing and isolate herself but then she attended a gymnastics training session earlier this week with me and according to the register from that evening, there were 20 gymnasts and 3 coaches in the gym then, not to mention Melanie had arrived early that evening, so there were another 25 or so gymnasts and another 3 or 4 coaches in the gym who were finishing up their training session. Melanie also attended lectures and tutorials at university this week, she estimated that she must have been in a lecture hall with at least 40 to 50 people this week, plus a smaller group of about five for her tutorials. Then we haven't even started on the friends she saw socially, about ten or so people.
So, imagine if everyone - all 100 or so people - who had been the same room as Melanie this week had to inform everyone they had then been in contact with this week to all go into self-quarantine, then that's an insane number of people going into self-quarantine numbering into the thousands. Who knows, perhaps some of those people are indeed infected with the virus but the presumed transmission route of Tony to Mr Hall to Melanie to Melanie's friend (such as myself) to third party is just so ridiculous that I simply reject it. There are also other factors like whether or not you have washed your hands regularly and if you have had any physical contact. So Melanie told me she gave her father a hug when they met, but since I'm so much older than Melanie, I would never hug someone like her at the gym - it just doesn't seem proper. Anyway, so I have decided that the chances of me having caught Covid-19 from Melanie is pretty low, since we don't even know if she had caught it off her father or if her father had caught it off Tony. I decided that as a friend, the best thing to do was to make sure Melanie was alright, like I wanted to make sure if she was sick, I could get her medicines from the pharmacy and if she needed food, I could cook for her or visit the supermarket for her. So I chatted with her online and then she reveals that not all of her father's colleagues have chosen to go into self-quarantine since Tony hasn't been tested. Since Tony isn't officially a patient of Covid-19, nobody quite knows how seriously to take this self-quarantine business - clearly Mr Hall feels strongly enough about that he did it and made his daughter do it too, but the company cannot force the other colleagues to do it too and the UK government simply are not monitoring cases like Tony, Mr Hall or Melanie at this moment - individuals are left to make their own decisions on the issue of self-quarantine.
Sounds almost like a 'six degrees of separation' idea, but with CV thrown in for added spice.
I think one degree of separation, perhaps two, is probably a realistic/appropriate as the point you, or anyone else, should 'get interested'. More than that and everyone would be locked down pretty much immediately. Which might happen pretty soon anyway, but that's another line of thought.
We don't have sufficent knowledge to model it - or work out the odds of infection to put it more simply - but we do know the probability of the virus being passed on to someone in the same room certainly isn't 1, and probably not very close to it. And there is still a reasonable probability given that the test hasn't yet been concluded that the start of the chain is a zero (not infected). In which case all other probabilities go straight to zero too.
I'd like to think I wouldn't be concerned until the chain of infection was proven to have got as far as Melanie. So I'd revisit it if that happens, which I'd guess to be quite long odds.
Before then ? Enjoy your freedom whilst it is still available to you, and don't uncessarily worry contacts downstream of you. Not everyone is capable of thinking rationally about probability, especially when it comes to their health. Unnecessary worry would probably be more damaging to some of them t this stage than the very remote chance that they've contracted the virus vi this (possible) chain.
I think the chances of Melanie being infected are low given that neither Mel nor her dad are showing any symptoms at the moment, but let's keep watching this space. Furthermore, her dad spent a whole evening over dinner with her and they went shopping etc, whereas I was in the same gym as her and spoke to her briefly but had zero physical contact with her. No I am definitely not the kissy-huggy type with my friends. I think it comes from being a gay man - I have no desire to kissy-huggy women and there's a really hot guy in my gym like ooh la la he makes my heart beat faster just looking at him, but he's straight and I don't wanna kissy-huggy him since I don't want him to think that I'm some kinda creepy old man trying to get my lecherous hands on him. I think he's hot but I respect boundaries - so as a result, I don't kissy-huggy with anyone at all!
Anyway, I digress - do you think it is right for Melanie to self-quarantine then given that she is one removed from Tony (via her dad)?
I might well have it wrong, but I was thinking that 1 degree of separation was 'immediately next to', which would make Melanie 2 degrees from Tony. Apologies if I've got that terminology wrong - I don't have the time to check it right now, but that was the basis of what I said.
For my money Melanie is much more in the 'arguable' space. FWIW I'd personally think 'two steps' should be a concern if you can rationally reason that one of the links has a probablity relatively close to 1. I don't know enough about how this transmits to know if going for dinner and shopping qualifies as that, but it must be getting close, given that this things does seem pretty successful as reproducing itself.
There is another line in the probability chain here which is Tony, and his probability of being positive. Which is also tough to call. What I would say is that ICU beds in the UK are close to full at the moment (I heard one region didn't have a single bed available yesterday afternoon, but take it with a pinch of salt as the source isn't verified), and the vast majority of those occupying them don't have coronavirus. In fact far have them will have regular seasonal flu. How having been in a high risk area affects the probability of having CV, v's flu, v's a bad cold is also an unknown, but I supect the chance of Tony being positive is actually closer to 0 than 1.
Hope this makes some sort of sense.
Cheers
So personally I don't think Melanie should really isolate, but I would criticise her if she did.
Yup, I think it makes sense because we have no idea whether or not Tony or Mr Hall is infected since nobody has been tested. Hence I think the sensible thing is to isolate if you are showing symptoms - I would say that Mr Hall is a possible, he has been in contact with Tony but we don't know if he is infected or not though in the case of Melanie, I say it's an overkill, but since her father told her to do so, she is the kind of good girl who just does as she is told.
So,as hinted at, enjoying your weekend was the thing to do.
As of now we are all (soft) forbidden to do it again.
IMHO about 3 or 4 days from now this will become obligatory, given the lack of familiarity of the UK population with the situation we find ourselves in.
Buckle-up. This is going to be the Pepsi-Max-Big-One on steroids.....
There's been a rallying cry online lately to flatten the curve, because this virus is growing at an exponential rate, and will continue to do if people don't start changing their social behaviour. That's likely why she contacted you and asked that you self-isolate. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html
While you currently don't have symptoms, you could potentially be an asymptomatic carrier because it's got a long incubation period (generally assumed to be 14 days, but in rare cases can be up to 27). It's hard to say whether you should self-quarantine because you feel fine, and you probably feel that you didn't do anything to increase your risk of exposure. It also doesn't help at all that none of them have been tested, so of course it's going to feel like an overreaction since nothing's been confirmed.
There's no easy answer on whether you should self-quarantine, but it's safer for everyone else if you do, not just because you could have the virus, but because going out increases your risk of coming into contact with an infected person and getting infected in the end.
I read that and I thought that surely you have missed out on one important part of the equation: high risk groups. I have an elderly friend David whom I was going to catch up with and now I am thinking that I really shouldn't go near David for that very reason: he is vulnerable. But as for everyone else, nobody knows who has it so whilst in principle, if everyone self-isolated and hid at home, that would halt spread the virus significantly. But if everyone did that - then the supermarkets would close, the hospitals would close, any kind of normal life cannot continue. There needs to be some kind of sensible compromise to maintain a basic level of services in the country.
In any case, a further point about how useless self-isolation is is that even if Melanie or myself go into self-quarantine for 14 days, then what happens after that? Eventually we need to venture out into society and meet people at work, university, etc and then do we self-isolate the moment we come into contact with someone just because he or she may have come into contact with someone who came into contact with someone who came into contact with someone who the fuck knows when we stop this six degrees of separation thing.
Yea, the easiest thing to do is to move to a remote island in the middle of nowhere and hide there for a year. But that's not possible and no one's doing it.
Another person who has been far more exposed to Covid-19 is my boss because he travels a lot, I had a long meeting with him this week and he has been in loads of planes and airports of late - so he's probably faaaaaaar more exposed to Covid-19 than Melanie has been (Melanie has not traveled in a few months, certainly not since Christmas and she has not been near any hot spots). But since my boss is healthy and not showing any symptoms, he has this keep calm and carry on till I get ill attitude. If you look at the risk of exposure, my boss is the one who is far more likely to be a carrier than Melanie - but he's not panicking, he's still traveling and working as per normal for now.
Even low risk groups can be in close contact with high risk groups, so even if you chose to avoid meeting the high risk groups (good on you), it's still a potential problem if you're meeting low risk groups who are close to high risk groups.
I agree that the self-isolation plan that the UK has is just super messy and unworkable. They should just test the people with symptoms and isolate the ones who had prolonged contact with them, then you'd know what your chances of being infected are and whether self-quarantine is necessary, rather than be in this state of not knowing.
Agreed; of the two, your boss is more likely to have gotten it. I do hope that none of you are infected, but if he's infected, your chances of being infected just went up due to your long meeting with him.
I think people are just getting ridiculously paranoid. Being infected should mean showing symptoms and being ill - rather than "oh you've been out and about, you've come within contact with another human being because your went to work so let's assume you're definitely 100% infected".
So until I start having a fever or having a dry coughing - I'm going to assume that I'm not infected. Because if simply being in places where there have been other human beings, then fuck me, I should have been infected weeks ago. For example, I go to the supermarket - aaaaargh fuck me, there are so many people there, any one of them could be ill and I could be standing right next to an infected person when queuing up to pay for my toilet rolls and hand sanitising gels.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to self-quarantine if I am indeed showing symptoms. For crying out aloud, I was in Northern Italy in late January.
But if I'm guilty of simply going to work, the gym, the supermarket and thus making me guilty of having been in contact with other human beings, then no I'm not going to declare myself "probably infected" for simply having been near another human. That's just so fucking ridiculous. I'm not fucking self quarantining until I'm ill - I'm going out to the supermarket now, then to the theatre tonight then to a restaurant and mingling with loads of human beings. Bwahahahahahahaha fuck me Corona. Do your fucking worst. Then I'm still gonna be working next week rather than self-quarantining cos I'm not fucking sick!
"Being infected should mean showing symptoms and being ill - rather than "oh you've been out and about, you've come within contact with another human being because your went to work so let's assume you're definitely 100% infected". "
That was how Sars worked, so you'd be right about that. As for this one, there's been debate about whether you're only infectious when you have symptoms or not (anecdotal evidence, but difficult to prove beyond reasonable doubt), hence the paranoia. Then there's also the debate about whether an asymptomatic person can spread as widely as someone with symptoms as well, since they're not coughing or sneezing.
Well I've been to the supermarket this afternoon, before going to the theatre (which was full, because there was Vanessa Williams on stage) and then headed out into the West End to struggle to find somewhere to eat cos places were too full - the impression I got from today was - corona virus or not - London is still heaving with people going out. I passed by a few pubs which were full to the brim with people enjoying their Saturday night without worrying about social distancing or close contact - nobody seems to give a shit. The only thing that I found frustrating was not being able to get some of my usual groceries at the supermarket cos of the panic buying. Hence there's a sense of - if hardly anyone is changing their habits and movements, what's the point of people like Mr Hall and Melanie practicing self-quarantine if I'm going to get it the next time I get on a crowded bus or train anyway?
Yet another article wondering whether asymptomatic spread should be taken more seriously, given that it could be a major driving factor in a Massachusetts coronavirus cluster. This is why it's difficult to say whether one should or shouldn't self-isolate; there's a lot we don't understand about the virus.
I do get your point about the futility of self-isolation when the majority don't do it. Statistically, it's not going to flatten the curve if a few who might not even be infected quarantine themselves while large gatherings are still occurring, and even worse if people with mild symptoms are still going out because they think they're fine. I do hope the UK changes its mind about not testing.
In any case, I fucking hate the current government - Boris Johnson is a fucking idiot who came to power the same way Trump did, playing on the fears of stupid people and as we have come to discover, the majority of British people are fucking stupid and voted for Brexit.
Just because I am British doesn't mean that I agree with the stance of the British government. In fact, I do strongly believe that most of the Tory government are fuckwits. The same way a lot of Singaporeans don't support the PAP - I certainly don't support Boris Johnson. If you think that not testing the majority of the British population is wrong, then I totally agree with you. Fuck Boris Johnson.
I just came back from 3 supermarkets - I couldn't even find chicken for crying out aloud, never mind toilet paper. But we're having fish instead for dinner and that's fine by me.
One last point about about self-quarantine: I just came back from the high street, it was crowded as usual, mostly with people running to the shops trying to buy stuff (panic buying still). Even if I do self-quarantine for 7 or 14 days, then what? This pandemic isn't going to be over in a matter of weeks, even a best case scenario is going to last a few months into the summer and that's a very best case scenario. You still think it is realistic to ask everyone who has been on the high street today (that's a lotta people) to self-quarantine cos they may have been in contact with a sick person?
Here's the thing you neglected to address: there are a lot of very poor people out there. People who are so fucking poor that if they don't work, they don't earn and they fucking starve to death. They don't have the luxury of working from home and ordering their groceries online to be delivered - like what are these people gonna do then? If they self-quarantine, they literally starve to death. So risky or not, they have to get out there and work. You should see the staff at my local supermarkets - the supermarkets are so freaking busy with people these days and these poor sods are working long hours in that environment, exposed to so much risk and they get paid peanuts for their work. They don't have the luxury of self-quarantining, who is gonna pay them to stay at home ?
The bottom line is you can't realistically ask everyone to stay at home and live off their savings until this is all over (like what, for 3, 4, even 6 months)? Not everyone has enough savings to live off in that meantime and many people simply have to work or else there's no freaking food on the table, they can't pay their rent, they can't pay their bills - self-quarantining is simply impossible for them if they are poor.
So they think, I may infect someone, but if I don't go out to work, my family will starve. Easy choice to make. My family comes first. Tough shit. And that's exactly what I see when I see those poor overworked sods at my local supermarket. They really get paid so little for the work they do and having to put up with idiots coming up to them every other minute to say, "have you got any more toilet paper?"
Self-quarantining does not work unless you have a government that's willing to pay people to stay in quarantine and that money has got to be substantial, enough to cover their living expenses for them and their family. It seems that only the government in Singapore is willing to do so - the Tory government is like, yeah fuck this, old people will die but who fucking cares. Let them, they're old anyway. They're bound to die sooner or later of one thing or another - that's exactly the UK government's stance.
I agree with you 100% on that. The measures that encourage self-quarantining need to be put in place (paying people to stay at home to compensate loss of income, providing necessities, making it easier to get tested and free treatment for the citizens and those working/staying there long term). I do wish things were better over there. I suppose the UK government may change their stance if they start dropping off like flies as the Iranian government did.
The government needs to provide the following urgently:
1. testing for the masses for free 2. paying those who have to self-isolate so compensate for their loss of income 3. putting in place deliveries for those who are in quarantine so they can get food, medicines, basic necessities etc.
Right now, we have none of the above for a simple reason: it all costs money. And we have a conservative government that has been hell-bent on austerity for a long time already. Right now, we've had like only 35 deaths (as I write this, it will undoubtedly go up) but the whole point of taking such measures is to reduce the impact and deaths. If things got as bad as Iran, then it's all too late. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak Here's the 4 stage strategy that they're using. It's very British and stupid but there you go.
Hi LIFT, I had a similar experience here in Singapore. On Friday 14 Feb I went to a friend's house for dinner.
The following Sunday, he called me saying someone who works in the same office as his wife just tested positive, and an ambulance came to his house that very night to take his wife to a quarantine facility, since they had worked on the same floor (even though his wife said she had not come into contact with the infected guy at all).
As a result, I postponed a visit to my aunt's house the following weekend, as my aunt is 85 years old. However, I went about my job and daily life as usual.
Ten days later, my friend's wife came back from the quarantine facility. (She did not have to stay for 14 days, because the last time the infected guy had been to the office was 4 days before he was confirmed to have the virus, and how they count is: "14 days from the last time you had contact with the infected person".)
All who were involved are fine. None of us at the dinner that night got sick, and the confirmed case, who shared an office with the host's wife, has been discharged.
In short: No. You are at low-to-negligible risk, and you should Not quarantine yourself.
Exactly that's what I thought. However. I have been out an about - I was at the theatre last night (Vanessa Williams was on stage!!!) and someone in the audience kept coughing and I thought, that's it we're all infected, including Vanessa Williams. The thing is that with a rigorous testing regime like that one you have in Singapore, yes it is possible to trace who came into contact with whom and when etc - but in the case of the UK, there is sooooo little testing done. The reason being that the hospitals and the labs have v limited capacity for testing so it is reserved for a) the elderly b) those who have underlying medical conditions c) those who have just returned from somewhere like Iran or Italy and are showing severe symptoms but even those who have been in contact with someone who has been showing symptoms isn't tested. Tony isn't tested, Mr Hall isn't tested, Melanie isn't tested for a simply reason: none of them fit into those 3 categories and Tony isn't old enough to be considered at risk - so he is simply told to self-quarantine till he gets better.
But I imagine there must be infected people out there running around so even if I did something as straight forward as going to the supermarket or taking a bus, I must be exposed to the possibility of infection. And unless I show symptoms, I have no idea if I am infected and the only sensible response to all that is a S Korean style mass testing - but that's something only the government can implement. In the UK, even if you want a test and you're willing to pay a lot of money for it, you can't get it. It's not available, it's jealously guarded and only made available to those who need it the most.
And I also refer you to the comment I wrote above: so what are people meant to do, self-quarantine until this is over for up to 6 months? For fuck's sake, that's fucking stupid. So few people are rich enough to say "I won't work for 6 months and will live off my savings until this is over." Any kind of self-quarantine is stupid really because even if you come out of quarantine, then what? Then what I ask you? The virus is still out there. It's not like self-quarantining yourself will change anything, especially if you're not even infected in the first place and you're still going to be at the risk of being infected at some stage. In fact, I think self-quarantining (especially for those who have no symptoms) is a fucking stupid idea because it gives them the wrongful impression that they are now immune and no longer at risk. Wrong! They're still at risk like everyone else, even those who have recovered can get it the second time.
I see the solution to be making the test kits available on the private market, mass production can meet the demand and that's the only sensible way ahead. The UK government's response has been fucking stupid and both Trump and Johnson are idiots.
Sounds almost like a 'six degrees of separation' idea, but with CV thrown in for added spice.
ReplyDeleteI think one degree of separation, perhaps two, is probably a realistic/appropriate as the point you, or anyone else, should 'get interested'. More than that and everyone would be locked down pretty much immediately. Which might happen pretty soon anyway, but that's another line of thought.
We don't have sufficent knowledge to model it - or work out the odds of infection to put it more simply - but we do know the probability of the virus being passed on to someone in the same room certainly isn't 1, and probably not very close to it. And there is still a reasonable probability given that the test hasn't yet been concluded that the start of the chain is a zero (not infected). In which case all other probabilities go straight to zero too.
I'd like to think I wouldn't be concerned until the chain of infection was proven to have got as far as Melanie. So I'd revisit it if that happens, which I'd guess to be quite long odds.
Before then ? Enjoy your freedom whilst it is still available to you, and don't uncessarily worry contacts downstream of you. Not everyone is capable of thinking rationally about probability, especially when it comes to their health. Unnecessary worry would probably be more damaging to some of them t this stage than the very remote chance that they've contracted the virus vi this (possible) chain.
Hi there, thanks for responding.
DeleteI think the chances of Melanie being infected are low given that neither Mel nor her dad are showing any symptoms at the moment, but let's keep watching this space. Furthermore, her dad spent a whole evening over dinner with her and they went shopping etc, whereas I was in the same gym as her and spoke to her briefly but had zero physical contact with her. No I am definitely not the kissy-huggy type with my friends. I think it comes from being a gay man - I have no desire to kissy-huggy women and there's a really hot guy in my gym like ooh la la he makes my heart beat faster just looking at him, but he's straight and I don't wanna kissy-huggy him since I don't want him to think that I'm some kinda creepy old man trying to get my lecherous hands on him. I think he's hot but I respect boundaries - so as a result, I don't kissy-huggy with anyone at all!
Anyway, I digress - do you think it is right for Melanie to self-quarantine then given that she is one removed from Tony (via her dad)?
I might well have it wrong, but I was thinking that 1 degree of separation was 'immediately next to', which would make Melanie 2 degrees from Tony. Apologies if I've got that terminology wrong - I don't have the time to check it right now, but that was the basis of what I said.
DeleteFor my money Melanie is much more in the 'arguable' space. FWIW I'd personally think 'two steps' should be a concern if you can rationally reason that one of the links has a probablity relatively close to 1. I don't know enough about how this transmits to know if going for dinner and shopping qualifies as that, but it must be getting close, given that this things does seem pretty successful as reproducing itself.
There is another line in the probability chain here which is Tony, and his probability of being positive. Which is also tough to call. What I would say is that ICU beds in the UK are close to full at the moment (I heard one region didn't have a single bed available yesterday afternoon, but take it with a pinch of salt as the source isn't verified), and the vast majority of those occupying them don't have coronavirus. In fact far have them will have regular seasonal flu. How having been in a high risk area affects the probability of having CV, v's flu, v's a bad cold is also an unknown, but I supect the chance of Tony being positive is actually closer to 0 than 1.
Hope this makes some sort of sense.
Cheers
So personally I don't think Melanie should really isolate, but I would criticise her if she did.
Yup, I think it makes sense because we have no idea whether or not Tony or Mr Hall is infected since nobody has been tested. Hence I think the sensible thing is to isolate if you are showing symptoms - I would say that Mr Hall is a possible, he has been in contact with Tony but we don't know if he is infected or not though in the case of Melanie, I say it's an overkill, but since her father told her to do so, she is the kind of good girl who just does as she is told.
DeleteJust to clarify, if it wasn't obvious from the context, the last line should have read
Delete"So personally I don't think Melanie should really isolate, but I wouldn't criticise her if she did."
Got it, thanks for the clarification.
DeleteSo,as hinted at, enjoying your weekend was the thing to do.
DeleteAs of now we are all (soft) forbidden to do it again.
IMHO about 3 or 4 days from now this will become obligatory, given the lack of familiarity of the UK population with the situation we find ourselves in.
Buckle-up. This is going to be the Pepsi-Max-Big-One on steroids.....
All shall be discussed in my follow up piece as I am typing right now ... what else is there to talk about? Coming soon, akan datang.
DeleteThere's been a rallying cry online lately to flatten the curve, because this virus is growing at an exponential rate, and will continue to do if people don't start changing their social behaviour. That's likely why she contacted you and asked that you self-isolate. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html
ReplyDeleteWhile you currently don't have symptoms, you could potentially be an asymptomatic carrier because it's got a long incubation period (generally assumed to be 14 days, but in rare cases can be up to 27). It's hard to say whether you should self-quarantine because you feel fine, and you probably feel that you didn't do anything to increase your risk of exposure. It also doesn't help at all that none of them have been tested, so of course it's going to feel like an overreaction since nothing's been confirmed.
There's no easy answer on whether you should self-quarantine, but it's safer for everyone else if you do, not just because you could have the virus, but because going out increases your risk of coming into contact with an infected person and getting infected in the end.
I read that and I thought that surely you have missed out on one important part of the equation: high risk groups. I have an elderly friend David whom I was going to catch up with and now I am thinking that I really shouldn't go near David for that very reason: he is vulnerable. But as for everyone else, nobody knows who has it so whilst in principle, if everyone self-isolated and hid at home, that would halt spread the virus significantly. But if everyone did that - then the supermarkets would close, the hospitals would close, any kind of normal life cannot continue. There needs to be some kind of sensible compromise to maintain a basic level of services in the country.
DeleteIn any case, a further point about how useless self-isolation is is that even if Melanie or myself go into self-quarantine for 14 days, then what happens after that? Eventually we need to venture out into society and meet people at work, university, etc and then do we self-isolate the moment we come into contact with someone just because he or she may have come into contact with someone who came into contact with someone who came into contact with someone who the fuck knows when we stop this six degrees of separation thing.
Yea, the easiest thing to do is to move to a remote island in the middle of nowhere and hide there for a year. But that's not possible and no one's doing it.
Another person who has been far more exposed to Covid-19 is my boss because he travels a lot, I had a long meeting with him this week and he has been in loads of planes and airports of late - so he's probably faaaaaaar more exposed to Covid-19 than Melanie has been (Melanie has not traveled in a few months, certainly not since Christmas and she has not been near any hot spots). But since my boss is healthy and not showing any symptoms, he has this keep calm and carry on till I get ill attitude. If you look at the risk of exposure, my boss is the one who is far more likely to be a carrier than Melanie - but he's not panicking, he's still traveling and working as per normal for now.
DeleteEven low risk groups can be in close contact with high risk groups, so even if you chose to avoid meeting the high risk groups (good on you), it's still a potential problem if you're meeting low risk groups who are close to high risk groups.
DeleteI agree that the self-isolation plan that the UK has is just super messy and unworkable. They should just test the people with symptoms and isolate the ones who had prolonged contact with them, then you'd know what your chances of being infected are and whether self-quarantine is necessary, rather than be in this state of not knowing.
Agreed; of the two, your boss is more likely to have gotten it. I do hope that none of you are infected, but if he's infected, your chances of being infected just went up due to your long meeting with him.
DeleteI think people are just getting ridiculously paranoid. Being infected should mean showing symptoms and being ill - rather than "oh you've been out and about, you've come within contact with another human being because your went to work so let's assume you're definitely 100% infected".
DeleteSo until I start having a fever or having a dry coughing - I'm going to assume that I'm not infected. Because if simply being in places where there have been other human beings, then fuck me, I should have been infected weeks ago. For example, I go to the supermarket - aaaaargh fuck me, there are so many people there, any one of them could be ill and I could be standing right next to an infected person when queuing up to pay for my toilet rolls and hand sanitising gels.
Don't get me wrong, I am willing to self-quarantine if I am indeed showing symptoms. For crying out aloud, I was in Northern Italy in late January.
DeleteBut if I'm guilty of simply going to work, the gym, the supermarket and thus making me guilty of having been in contact with other human beings, then no I'm not going to declare myself "probably infected" for simply having been near another human. That's just so fucking ridiculous. I'm not fucking self quarantining until I'm ill - I'm going out to the supermarket now, then to the theatre tonight then to a restaurant and mingling with loads of human beings. Bwahahahahahahaha fuck me Corona. Do your fucking worst. Then I'm still gonna be working next week rather than self-quarantining cos I'm not fucking sick!
"Being infected should mean showing symptoms and being ill - rather than "oh you've been out and about, you've come within contact with another human being because your went to work so let's assume you're definitely 100% infected". "
DeleteThat was how Sars worked, so you'd be right about that. As for this one, there's been debate about whether you're only infectious when you have symptoms or not (anecdotal evidence, but difficult to prove beyond reasonable doubt), hence the paranoia. Then there's also the debate about whether an asymptomatic person can spread as widely as someone with symptoms as well, since they're not coughing or sneezing.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-spreads-quickly-before-people-show-symptoms-study/articleshow/74623260.cms
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/jury-still-out-on-how-infectious-asymptomatic-patients-are
Well I've been to the supermarket this afternoon, before going to the theatre (which was full, because there was Vanessa Williams on stage) and then headed out into the West End to struggle to find somewhere to eat cos places were too full - the impression I got from today was - corona virus or not - London is still heaving with people going out. I passed by a few pubs which were full to the brim with people enjoying their Saturday night without worrying about social distancing or close contact - nobody seems to give a shit. The only thing that I found frustrating was not being able to get some of my usual groceries at the supermarket cos of the panic buying. Hence there's a sense of - if hardly anyone is changing their habits and movements, what's the point of people like Mr Hall and Melanie practicing self-quarantine if I'm going to get it the next time I get on a crowded bus or train anyway?
Deletehttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html
DeleteYet another article wondering whether asymptomatic spread should be taken more seriously, given that it could be a major driving factor in a Massachusetts coronavirus cluster. This is why it's difficult to say whether one should or shouldn't self-isolate; there's a lot we don't understand about the virus.
I do get your point about the futility of self-isolation when the majority don't do it. Statistically, it's not going to flatten the curve if a few who might not even be infected quarantine themselves while large gatherings are still occurring, and even worse if people with mild symptoms are still going out because they think they're fine. I do hope the UK changes its mind about not testing.
In any case, I fucking hate the current government - Boris Johnson is a fucking idiot who came to power the same way Trump did, playing on the fears of stupid people and as we have come to discover, the majority of British people are fucking stupid and voted for Brexit.
DeleteJust because I am British doesn't mean that I agree with the stance of the British government. In fact, I do strongly believe that most of the Tory government are fuckwits. The same way a lot of Singaporeans don't support the PAP - I certainly don't support Boris Johnson. If you think that not testing the majority of the British population is wrong, then I totally agree with you. Fuck Boris Johnson.
I just came back from 3 supermarkets - I couldn't even find chicken for crying out aloud, never mind toilet paper. But we're having fish instead for dinner and that's fine by me.
One last point about about self-quarantine: I just came back from the high street, it was crowded as usual, mostly with people running to the shops trying to buy stuff (panic buying still). Even if I do self-quarantine for 7 or 14 days, then what? This pandemic isn't going to be over in a matter of weeks, even a best case scenario is going to last a few months into the summer and that's a very best case scenario. You still think it is realistic to ask everyone who has been on the high street today (that's a lotta people) to self-quarantine cos they may have been in contact with a sick person?
Here's the thing you neglected to address: there are a lot of very poor people out there. People who are so fucking poor that if they don't work, they don't earn and they fucking starve to death. They don't have the luxury of working from home and ordering their groceries online to be delivered - like what are these people gonna do then? If they self-quarantine, they literally starve to death. So risky or not, they have to get out there and work. You should see the staff at my local supermarkets - the supermarkets are so freaking busy with people these days and these poor sods are working long hours in that environment, exposed to so much risk and they get paid peanuts for their work. They don't have the luxury of self-quarantining, who is gonna pay them to stay at home ?
The bottom line is you can't realistically ask everyone to stay at home and live off their savings until this is all over (like what, for 3, 4, even 6 months)? Not everyone has enough savings to live off in that meantime and many people simply have to work or else there's no freaking food on the table, they can't pay their rent, they can't pay their bills - self-quarantining is simply impossible for them if they are poor.
DeleteSo they think, I may infect someone, but if I don't go out to work, my family will starve. Easy choice to make. My family comes first. Tough shit. And that's exactly what I see when I see those poor overworked sods at my local supermarket. They really get paid so little for the work they do and having to put up with idiots coming up to them every other minute to say, "have you got any more toilet paper?"
Self-quarantining does not work unless you have a government that's willing to pay people to stay in quarantine and that money has got to be substantial, enough to cover their living expenses for them and their family. It seems that only the government in Singapore is willing to do so - the Tory government is like, yeah fuck this, old people will die but who fucking cares. Let them, they're old anyway. They're bound to die sooner or later of one thing or another - that's exactly the UK government's stance.
I agree with you 100% on that. The measures that encourage self-quarantining need to be put in place (paying people to stay at home to compensate loss of income, providing necessities, making it easier to get tested and free treatment for the citizens and those working/staying there long term). I do wish things were better over there. I suppose the UK government may change their stance if they start dropping off like flies as the Iranian government did.
DeleteThe government needs to provide the following urgently:
Delete1. testing for the masses for free
2. paying those who have to self-isolate so compensate for their loss of income
3. putting in place deliveries for those who are in quarantine so they can get food, medicines, basic necessities etc.
Right now, we have none of the above for a simple reason: it all costs money. And we have a conservative government that has been hell-bent on austerity for a long time already. Right now, we've had like only 35 deaths (as I write this, it will undoubtedly go up) but the whole point of taking such measures is to reduce the impact and deaths. If things got as bad as Iran, then it's all too late. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak Here's the 4 stage strategy that they're using. It's very British and stupid but there you go.
Hi LIFT, I had a similar experience here in Singapore.
ReplyDeleteOn Friday 14 Feb I went to a friend's house for dinner.
The following Sunday, he called me saying someone who works in the same office as his wife just tested positive, and an ambulance came to his house that very night to take his wife to a quarantine facility, since they had worked on the same floor (even though his wife said she had not come into contact with the infected guy at all).
As a result, I postponed a visit to my aunt's house the following weekend, as my aunt is 85 years old. However, I went about my job and daily life as usual.
Ten days later, my friend's wife came back from the quarantine facility. (She did not have to stay for 14 days, because the last time the infected guy had been to the office was 4 days before he was confirmed to have the virus, and how they count is: "14 days from the last time you had contact with the infected person".)
All who were involved are fine. None of us at the dinner that night got sick, and the confirmed case, who shared an office with the host's wife, has been discharged.
In short: No. You are at low-to-negligible risk, and you should Not quarantine yourself.
Aaaaaah thanks for your comment.
DeleteExactly that's what I thought. However. I have been out an about - I was at the theatre last night (Vanessa Williams was on stage!!!) and someone in the audience kept coughing and I thought, that's it we're all infected, including Vanessa Williams. The thing is that with a rigorous testing regime like that one you have in Singapore, yes it is possible to trace who came into contact with whom and when etc - but in the case of the UK, there is sooooo little testing done. The reason being that the hospitals and the labs have v limited capacity for testing so it is reserved for a) the elderly b) those who have underlying medical conditions c) those who have just returned from somewhere like Iran or Italy and are showing severe symptoms but even those who have been in contact with someone who has been showing symptoms isn't tested. Tony isn't tested, Mr Hall isn't tested, Melanie isn't tested for a simply reason: none of them fit into those 3 categories and Tony isn't old enough to be considered at risk - so he is simply told to self-quarantine till he gets better.
But I imagine there must be infected people out there running around so even if I did something as straight forward as going to the supermarket or taking a bus, I must be exposed to the possibility of infection. And unless I show symptoms, I have no idea if I am infected and the only sensible response to all that is a S Korean style mass testing - but that's something only the government can implement. In the UK, even if you want a test and you're willing to pay a lot of money for it, you can't get it. It's not available, it's jealously guarded and only made available to those who need it the most.
And I also refer you to the comment I wrote above: so what are people meant to do, self-quarantine until this is over for up to 6 months? For fuck's sake, that's fucking stupid. So few people are rich enough to say "I won't work for 6 months and will live off my savings until this is over." Any kind of self-quarantine is stupid really because even if you come out of quarantine, then what? Then what I ask you? The virus is still out there. It's not like self-quarantining yourself will change anything, especially if you're not even infected in the first place and you're still going to be at the risk of being infected at some stage. In fact, I think self-quarantining (especially for those who have no symptoms) is a fucking stupid idea because it gives them the wrongful impression that they are now immune and no longer at risk. Wrong! They're still at risk like everyone else, even those who have recovered can get it the second time.
I see the solution to be making the test kits available on the private market, mass production can meet the demand and that's the only sensible way ahead. The UK government's response has been fucking stupid and both Trump and Johnson are idiots.