Brexit, Proroguing the Parliament and Boris Johnson

Hello again, I have received some questions from my readers about how I feel about the latest move by Boris Johnson to force through a no-deal Brexit for us to crash out of the EU without a deal by suspending parliament to get his way. Well, firstly I must point out that whilst I am of course unhappy with the current state of affairs (heck, I've been mighty pissed off since they voted for Brexit), this however doesn't come as a surprise as Johnson's campaign on becoming the new Tory dealer was mostly about delivering Brexit regardless of the (awful) consequences. Now he's simply doing what he said he was going to do and I'm like, yeah why am I not surprised? This didn't come out of the blue - it's just like someone who has been a chain smoker being diagnosed with lung cancer, sure the diagnosis is unpleasant to say the least and very bad news, but should you be surprised? By the same token, Johnson's latest move didn't surprise me.

What will happen next? 

It is quite probable that Jeremy Corbyn (the leader of the opposition Labour party) would call for a vote of no confidence in the prime minister - in a sense, Johnson is practically forcing Corbyn to do that and that's exactly what Johnson wants. Corbyn is in a no-win situation - if he doesn't call for a vote of no confidence, then he would be seen as a lame duck, useless leader of the opposition who is stunned into inaction even when the prime minister suspends parliament and hijacks the democratic process. So Corbyn is forced to call for a vote of no confidence and it will pass; thus resulting in a general election that the Conservatives can't lose. After all, Boris Johnson is still way ahead in the polls despite suspending parliament and being accused of being a tin-pot dictator. The reason is pretty simple: Corbyn has very little mainstream appeal, he is very good at playing to his supporters who are on the far-left of the Labour party but he can't even unite his own party, never mind appeal to those in the center (like myself) which is something he needs to do if he wants to challenge Johnson. Furthermore, this would probably galvanize the pro-Brexit voters to rally behind Johnson out of indignation of having their will frustrated - this is something that Johnson badly needs to happen as the pro-Brexit camp is currently split between the Conservatives, UKIP and the Brexit Party. So Johnson will not only get a fresh mandate of 5 years, he might do so well he can dump the DUP (currently in coalition with the Conservatives) and that will actually make his negotiation position a lot stronger without them holding him back. If he manages a substantial majority, then he can vanquish the Brexit party - after all, all they will do is steal many Conservative supporters during an election, reducing their majority and so they are by no means an ally to the Conservatives (more like a nasty thorn in their flesh).

What is Johnson's alternative? 

Well, he has seen Theresa May fail in trying to deliver a Brexit by consensus and despite the best of her efforts, we all knew she was doomed to failure - she was never going to succeed and her failure would be Johnson's justification, "how else was anyone going to deliver Brexit without suspending parliament?" Indeed, whilst it may seem audacious and reckless, if he had simply followed the path that May took, he would fail in delivering Brexit and the Conservative party would probably split into at least two different factions, leading to a period of chaos in British politics whereby there are at least 6 major parties in England (two factions of the Conservatives, Labour, UKIP, Brexit and Lib Dems) along with Plaid Cymru in Wales and SNP in Scotland) vying for power, still fighting over Brexit and there would be weak coalition governments for the foreseeable future. That's hardly a rosy prospect, the alternative is an outright majority for Johnson where he outmaneuvers all his opponents both from within and without his party and rules like Trump after Brexit - sure the country would be worse off but hey, it would be the poor people who would suffer the most and fuck them, the Conservative party and Boris Johnson doesn't care about poor people. Besides, many of these poor people voted for Brexit as a protest vote, so you're merely giving them what they asked for and if it means being worse off, tough shit for them. This is like those monks who set themselves on fire when protesting - yeah I get it, you're angry and you wanna make a statement but are you going to be better off by setting yourself on fire? No - likewise, voting for Brexit is a dumb gesture of protest because you're going to make yourself a lot worse off. Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, you will agree that simply doing what May did would only lead to the same result - so by that token, it is rather obvious why Johnson is going down this route as he has really nothing to lose after we all witness how May has failed.

How can Johnson get away with this?!

The main reason why Johnson will succeed is because Corbyn is a total left-wing nut job who has a massive ego and is oblivious to just how little appeal he has to the mainstream voter. Look, I hate Johnson and am aghast at what he did, but the prospect of replacing Johnson with Corbyn is hardly appealing. Corbyn is way too old and his extreme left-wing ideas are rooted ideology rather than reality; and whilst I think some of his ideas do have some validity, I am also a businessman who knows that you need to be able to sell your ideas. That's why you need a leader with appeal - someone who looks good, excels at public speaking and is convincing: people like Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Barrack Obama and Jacinda Arden definitely have that right combination in order to sell their political ideas. At 70, Corbyn is way too old and has absolutely no charm, he is clueless when it comes to building himself up as a brand that can be marketed to be voters - I look at him and think, "he needs his medication or a nap", I don't trust someone that old to be dynamic enough to deal with the problems our country has or even be in touch with what young people are facing these days. If he really wanted to prevent Brexit or stop Boris Johnon, he would have stepped aside long ago and allowed a younger, more good looking leader to take over the Labour party, somebody who would have a much greater appeal particularly to younger voters and those in the center (like myself). Perhaps someone like Emily Thornberry, Yvette Cooper or even rather popular London mayor Sadiq Khan can turn the fortunes of the Labour party around, but they would have inherited a big mess left by a hugely incompetent (and rather senile) Corbyn. Well, good luck to them!

You sound like you're blaming Corbyn supporters for this mess. 

There's definitely an element of blame there. If you have a complex, messy situation like Brexit, you need some element of compromise in order to reach a consensus for any kind of solution - those on the extreme left are not good at that. I'm not saying that those on the extreme right (pushing for a no-deal Brexit) are any better, but let me give you a few examples on how those on the extreme right behave. I met this woman who claimed that there should be a 100% income tax beyond £40,000 a year because "nobody needs that much money" and that the wealth should be distributed to help the poor both in this country and abroad. Then there are those who believe that countries like the UK and the US should open our borders to anyone and everyone wishing to move to there, because any kinds of restrictions is discrimination. And of course, they have blind spots the size of the sun - they seem to pursue this, "it is all the fault of the evil Tories, blame the evil bankers" which of course misrepresents the problems that this country faces. Do we have massive problems in this country? Of course we do - from the education system to the NHS to law & order to unemployment oh we have loads of problems, but did these problems go away under a Labour government in the period 1997 to 2010? No, they didn't; because these problems are far more complex and are due to factors other than whether you have a right or left wing government in power. Yet they seem only able to see things in terms of a simplistic "left wing = the answer, right wing = the problem" framework and it is impossible reasoning with them. They are the ones keeping Corbyn in charge of Labour despite the fact that Corbyn has no plan to unify the country or even solve any of the problems we currently face.

So it is definitely a no-deal Brexit then? What will happen?

Oh, as if there was any doubt about it. That had been clear before May had thrown in the towel - she had proven that it was never going to be possible to get consensus on the issue given that there is no way anyone can get a majority to back any plan, so Johnson's tactic to force a no-deal Brexit through was the only one that could work. So it is inevitable the UK will crash out of the EU without a deal and there will be no prospect of any kind of deal with the EU in the near future as the EU is hell bent on punishing the UK for Brexit - there's also the fear of course of other countries following the UK's example so the EU has every incentive to make life as difficult as possible for the UK. Businesses will suffer, trade will suffer, the pound will fall even further and poor people would suffer the most - but hey, a lot of them wanted Brexit so be careful what you wish for. Take something as basic as food: we import a lot of food in the UK. So today at the supermarket, I bought a number of things that were imported from Europe: chocolate, balsamic vinegar, peaches, bananas, grapes, cheese and coffee. A lot of these food items like coffee for example simply are not produced in the UK (it is grown in warmer countries like Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia) so they have to be imported and if the pound devalues, then the price of coffee would go up as a result and if I have to pay 20% more for my coffee, I would grumble but do it anyway as I need my coffee. Increasing my food expenditure is no big for me as I am very rich, but for a poor working class family, paying 20% more for food would mean having to make cuts elsewhere and they would certainly feel the pain a lot more. So I predict that 2020 will be a very painful year for the working class in the UK as they would see a real drop in their standard of living and a sharp rise in their cost of living. But Johnson wouldn't be hurt at all as he would be hailed as the hero by the supporters of Brexit and he did outmaneuver his opponents in a way that May never could.

Is there a way to stop Johnson? 

Actually no. I hate to say this, but no and there's really little point in protesting. What he is doing is unethical but legal. It is within his power to suspend parliament and Johnson's move to prorogue the government is unpopular but legal. Let's look at another episode from history: Thatcher introduced a highly unpopular tax called the poll tax back in 1989-1990 - it was a flat rate tax on every adult and it was criticized to be highly unfair because it didn't take into account the citizen's personal circumstances. A multi-millionaire tycoon would pay the same rate under this system as an young nurse struggling to make ends meet. This resulted in what was known as the poll tax riots in 1990 with mass protests all over the country. Now what the government did was completely legal - the government in office had the right to create new taxes that the citizens have to pay, but it turned out to be so highly unpopular that it threatened the popularity of the then Conservative government. The poll tax riots were one of many factors that made Thatcher increasingly unpopular to the point where she had to step down as prime minster in November 1990. So is this act of proroguing the parliament going to prove as unpopular as the poll tax - would it be enough to make Johnson so unpopular it can remove him from power? Actually no, whilst a lot of people are outraged, many who voted to leave the EU are delighted at Johnson's latest move because he will finally deliver Brexit (nasty consequences notwithstanding) but don't forget that enough people did vote for Brexit in the first place; so that ought to secure Johnson enough support for him to survive whatever backlash this latest move has produced. It is a calculated risk he is taking, he can't please everyone - so he's going to deliver Brexit, the poorest people of this country will be truly fucked for a while but he will still be able to hold on to power regardless.

So is Johnson actually smarter than he come across? 

I doubt it. Look, he's good at some things and bad at others, personally I deeply dislike him and I even long for the days of Theresa May as I trust her more than I trust him. He's not stupid but he's a liar with no principles, he would say anything to appease the public just to make himself popular. He's a snake with no morals. That's how I feel about him, but then again, I have high standards and I hate a lot of politicians. But this much I can tell you: Johnson (like Trump) has a huge team behind him and every move he makes at this point is not totally random and spontaneous like Trump's tweets. So every move such as the suspension of government would be something that his big team would have researched, discussed and dissected for a very long time before advising him what the probable outcomes are - so it is not like Johnson is simply making it up as he goes along, he is the prime minister of the UK and thus has at his disposal a huge team to support him. So imagine if he is still in power this time next year after Brexit and a general election, then you can't let him take all the credit - let's not pretend that he is some kind of political maverick smarter than all his opponents, no he simply has a great team behind him that's all. Oh I don't doubt that someone like Corbyn probably has a team behind him too, but there are some things that they just can't fix such as his age, his appearance and his lack of charm and social skills. Then again, would he listen to such a team of advisers? I can imagine someone like Trump surrounding himself with people who would only tell him what he wants to hear rather than challenging him everyday; and what's the point of a team like that? My opinion is that Johnson isn't that smart, but he has a great team behind him.

I have seen reports on social media claiming this is a plot by the elites, by Trump supporters to usurp democracy and impose a no-deal Brexit on the people on the UK regardless of the consequences. Is it true?

Again, I don't agree with that sentiment because it reeks of the old left-right divide, disguised as a poor-rich divide. The whole country would be worse off after Brexit and that means whether you're rich or poor, you're going to suffer - it's only the rich who will suffer less because they can simply spend more money to maintain the same standard of living as they enjoyed before Brexit whilst the poor don't have that luxury, they're just going to be a lot worse off. Brexit has become a political football - that means that some people have convinced the poorer, working class that somehow leaving the EU would be the magical solution to all their problems and for them to get on the Brexit bandwagon. They had been so successful in doing so that there is a substantial number of people now who want Brexit to happen and thus if becomes such an important issue that if you promise you can deliver Brexit, then people will vote for you and you will have political power. So Brexit it benefiting a rather small number of politicians who crave power, it is just a pawn they have used in their game to outmaneuver their political enemies and opponents - thus in this context, they are willing to crash the British economy into a wall if it means being able to outplay their political opponent. But make no mistake, the rich are still worse off as their wealth is going to be eroded as a result of Brexit, so just because they're less worse off than the poor doesn't mean they are going to benefit from Brexit. There's a very select group of people who will benefit from Brexit and I just happen to be in that position despite the fact that I am so 100% anti-Brexit because of the nature of my work.

Wait what, you're going to be better off as a result? 

Well yes. I earn in a mix of US dollars and pound sterling. I work in corporate finance and I place investments - when I am dealing with British projects, I get my cut in pound sterling, but when I am dealing with international projects, the currency of choice is usually US dollars. Once in a while, I may get a deal in Euros, but I would say that most of the time, I am dealing with international projects and I get paid in US dollars. I live in London and am spending in pound sterling when I go to the local shops here, so I keep my dollars I earn in an US dollar account and each time the pound slips against the dollar, my dollars are worth more when I convert them to spend in England. You see, most people who live in the UK are paid in local currency - pound sterling. So they are fucked if the sterling devalues as we import so many things, just walk into any supermarket and you'll see loads of food products imported from abroad: from coffee and tea to fruits to vegetables to meat products to all kinds of snacks. We import so much food as it is far cheaper to produce say a chocolate bar in a place like Poland or Romania then ship it over to the UK then to do it in a factory in England, we're used to having a strong currency that has given us the luxury of stocking the shelves of our supermarkets full of cheap imported food - well that's about to come to an end, unless you're earning in a strong currency like US dollars. People here have gotten so used the benefits that come with having a strong currency, they can say goodbye to that after Brexit.

So why aren't you pro-Brexit then? Why are you anti-Brexit if you're not any worse off?

I recognize the important contributions that these hardworking Eastern European migrant workers have made to this country, without them many of our essential services would fall apart. Take our supermarkets for example - the pay is low, the hours are long and the job prospects aren't great. A lot of the staff at our London supermarkets are Eastern European and they work bloody long hours for not a lot of money. Many people who voted for Brexit wanted to keep these Eastern Europeans out, because they were fed up with these foreigners coming here to 'steal' their jobs - they wanted jobs in England to be done by English people. That's a very racist attitude that I find abhorrent. But I think that kind of thinking is fucking stupid and belongs to another era: we live in a globalized economy and we should think global rather than have this ridiculous frog at the bottom of the well mentality. If an Eastern European migrant worker who speaks English as a second or third language can steal your English jobs despite the fact that you grew up in England, speak English as a first language, had the benefit of a British education and all these government schemes to help young people get a job - then holy fuck, you must be really shit and that's the reality: there are a lot of lazy, stupid, useless English people who are blaming Eastern Europeans migrant for everything and these are the kind of losers who voted for Brexit. I am not dependent on the exchange rate to make my US dollars go further - I make my own fortune by being brilliant, by being better at my job than everyone else and if you think you can challenge me, then bring it on. And most of all, I don't identify with the majority of the people who want Brexit. My stance is based on my cultural identity, it is not about money.

How do you choose to engage with the world in 2019?

Look, let me explain a bit about my identity - I never got along with my parents so I rejected their culture and when I did a DNA test and found out that I am mixed, I felt totally liberated because I am not just someone who hates his parents' culture and wants to be white, I am legitimately mixed. When you are monolingual, then you feel obliged to identify with the one culture that your language gives you access to but when you speak 8 languages fluently and get by in 25 like me, then you're not bound to one language or culture. Allow me to give you a simple example: when I was in Mendoza, Argentina, I took a taxi and had a chat with the taxi driver in Spanish and he was saying how different my accent was as I had learnt standard Madrid Spanish - he had the radio on in his car and I recognized the vocals of the late American singer Whitney Houston but it was the 2019 remix of her song 'Higher Love' by Norwegian DJ Kygo which was only released in Japan in 1990. I heard the song again this evening when I was at the gym and immediately, I immediately made all these international connections in my head from the USA to Argentina to Spain to Japan to Norway back to London. That one song demonstrates how the modern world is so incredibly interconnected over time and space thanks to the power of the internet; I would like to identify myself with the new generation who don't feel any affinity to one culture, one language or one country but as a citizen of the world. Yes there are people in England who never see much of the world beyond their immediate surroundings: they don't travel, they don't interact with people from another country, they don't speak another language, they take no interest in the world beyond their local communities. It is people like that who want Brexit because they want to shut out Europe and no - I don't identify with that at all for I am quite the opposite.

Don't you think you're being too pessimistic? 

I don't think so - I'm realistic and I find little evidence for me to base any kind of optimism on. Perhaps there's an element of expecting the worst on my part, so if Brexit ends up really badly but still somehow we've averted the worst case scenario, then I'll be saying, "oh at least things aren't as bad as I thought they were going to be, that's actually pretty good." But allow me to share an analogy with you: this was earlier in the summer when I had a friend staying with me in London. It was a hot day with temperatures reaching 32 degrees and he still insisted of taking a rather heavy winter jacket with him - he claimed, "oh you never know, the weather may turn cool suddenly or it would get windy." I said no it won't, I have a weather app on my phone: it is very accurate and will tell you exactly what is happening in the next 24 hours. According to the app, it will be hot and there will be very light winds, thus your jacket is not necessary. He still insisted on taking it along and sure enough, I was right and he was wrong - he didn't once wear the jacket and had to carry it around all day with him. I had the satisfaction of telling him, "look what happens if you don't listen to me and do as I say? I'm right, you're wrong. Now do you regret not listening to me when I told you what to do?" Yeah that was just a minor incident, now imagine me having a "I'm right, you're wrong" moment on a national scale, where people like me get to tell the people why Brexit was the wrong choice only after the country becomes a lot worse off after Brexit. The satisfaction of being proven right is hardly compensation for seeing the country destroyed by Brexit, but it is one aspect of Brexit I will certainly enjoy. After all, I do enjoy going around feeling so much smarter than everyone else around me.

So that's it from me on this topic, the next couple of weeks are going to be interesting as we crash out of the EU without a deal. I shall finish with an analogy (you know I love my analogies). I was in a theme park in America many years ago and the ride involved sitting in a 'boat' which was then taken through a water course. The last part of the ride involved falling at great speed down a very steep ramp into a pool of water and when the boat hit the water, there would of course be a huge splash and we were warned that the people at the front of the boat would get more wet than the people at the back. Well, being me, I chose to sit at the back of the boat and I got a few drops of water on my sunglasses and T-shirt. The people at the front of the boat were totally soaked and one teenager even screamed, "Oh no, my phone! My iPhone is fucked! It is so totally wet!"Yeah. The UK crashing out of the EU without a deal is going to hurt some people more than others - the rich people like me are at the back of the boat and I am going to enjoy watching the poor people who voted for Brexit suffer because they're at the very front of the boat. Pplease leave a comment below, many thanks for reading.