1. Some (but not all) small and rich countries have done very well.
Some of the best performers have been places which are both small and rich - that's pretty obvious why it makes the task a lot more manageable when they don't have that many people to vaccinate and they clearly have plenty of money to throw at a vaccination programme to make it successful. The British territory of Gibraltar has almost fully vaccinated everyone there - it is a tiny place which is just 6.8 km2 and to put that in perspective, even Pulau Ubin (the second biggest island of Singapore) is bigger than Gibraltar at 10.2 km2. So clearly, it is a tiny place and the population is about 34,000. On top of that, in terms of their GDP per capita, Gibraltar is far richer than the UK and because it is not a sovereign state (technically speaking it is a UK overseas territory) they are often omitted from most data sets on vaccinations - their GDP per capita at PPP would place it as the fifth richest country in the world whilst the UK is way down at at 23rd. So clearly, a place like Gibraltar is ideal to organize a super efficient vaccination drive and that's why they have won the gold medal in this competition. In Gibraltar, 98% of adults over 60 are vaccinated and 85% of all adults are vaccinated - their number of doses per 100 people is currently 204 (when 200 indicates that every person has received two doses). This is because instead of vaccinating the young people who are not high on the priority list, they are vaccinating a lot of Spanish key workers who cross the border regularly to work in Gibraltar and these Spanish people are unable to get vaccinated soon enough in Spain (which has only fully vaccinated 8% of their adult population) and the government in Gibraltar decided to offer them the vaccine in order to allow them to continue working in Gibraltar.
It is a success story as the number of local transmissions have remained at zero since the 8th April and life has pretty much returned to normal in Gibraltar, apart from some people still choosing to wear masks in public spaces. But whilst many may feel envious of the situation in Gibraltar, they are pretty much in a prison - it is a tiny piece of land which they can't leave. Furthermore, they are surrounded by two countries: Spain to the north and Morocco to the south, both of which still struggling to vaccinate their populations. Other small countries and territories which have had similar success stories include Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which sit at number two and three on this list and I note that the country which is firth on that list is San Marino, another really tiny country at just 61.2 km2 which I have visited last year. There is the possibility of these isolated pockets of Covid-free countries establishing air-corridors to allow them to try to kick start the tourism sector, but there would be just so little demand that it is unlikely to work. Technically speaking, yes you could fly the route from Gibraltar to Tel Aviv, establishing that air-corridor between Gibraltar and Israel, but demand for that route is likely to be low as the Israelis wouldn't want to fly all the way to Gibraltar for a holiday because it is such a tiny place. Virtually all scheduled flights from Gibraltar connect the territory with the UK given the connections between the two places so the bulk of the visitors to Gibraltar are in fact British (there are also some visitors from mainland Spain as well). Trying to lure the Israelis there would be a challenge. Palau has opened an air-corridor with Taiwan - that's the first country the Taiwanese could travel to but demand has been poor, mostly due to the high costs of the package tours.
2. Some big countries have done well too.
A few bigger countries have performed relatively well in their vaccination drives: namely the UK, Chile and the USA. I'm not quite sure whether to include Israel as a big or small country as they have a relatively smaller population at just 9.1 million; but I shall focus my attention on the UK and USA for now. Both of these countries have been absolutely ravaged by the first and second waves of the Corona virus - nearly 600,000 people have died in the US and over 150,000 have died in the UK (I dispute the British government's figure of 127,000 due to the way the data has been manipulated to exclude some Covid-related deaths). There is palpable public anger in both of these countries over these extremely high death tolls - after all, Germany has a population that is 23.8% bigger than the UK yet their death toll is just 55.3% that of the UK. It goes to show how poorly countries like the UK have managed this crisis so the governments in the UK and US actually have far more of an incentive to get their acts together in order make sure that they don't have yet another deadly wave of the virus and they have responded to the need to vaccinate far more urgently than other countries, where the death toll just hasn't been this severe. Yes the fact that the UK and US have the pharmaceutical base to produce a lot of the vaccines does help them secure a supply to ensure a successful role out, the fact that America had a change of president as well has also marked a change in their approach to rolling out the vaccine, since Trump left office with no plan for vaccinations whatsoever - like don't even get me started on just how incompetent Trump and Boris Johnson are.
3. But some rich countries have barely gotten started?
Taiwan is so low down the list it is nearly at the bottom, having vaccinated just 0.2 people out of 100 (as of the 1st May 2021) - the reason is that they have no need to rush out an expensive vaccination programme. Thanks to the government in Taiwan taking decisive and swift action, they have managed to deal with the pandemic very effectively in the early day - keeping both infection and death rates extremely low. Thus Taiwan has been Covid-free for over a year now, they nipped the problem in the bud very early and effectively shut their borders - anyone trying to enter Taiwan would need to adhere to a very strict quarantine procedure to ensure that the virus isn't reintroduced into Taiwan. The only downside is that the tourism industry in Taiwan has suffered from the total lack of foreign visitors and Taiwanese people can't leave their own country, but otherwise life in Taiwan is actually pretty good. Thus this creates a situation whereby there's just no real urgency to vaccinate the people against Covid-19, especially when there's a global shortage of vaccines right now. The government of Taiwan can look at the situation happening in India right now and say, "we don't want to make the situation in places like India any worse by buying up a limited stock of vaccines right now - please let India go to the front of the queue, we will let them have priority." Taiwan also has some difficulties in their negotiations to procure vaccines from Pfizer, but given the situation in Taiwan right now, they have the luxury of continuing the negotiations to try to get a better deal rather than settle for a bad deal now. After all, the price for these vaccines will eventually drop when the demand drops, that is when Pfizer is likely to be much more amenable at the negotiating table.
We expect poor countries in Africa to perform badly because they have very weak public health systems to begin with, the infrastructure simply isn't there to cope with a crisis on this scale. However, a number of rich countries in the Asia-Pacific region have also had very low rates of vaccination: South Korea, New Zealand, Japan, Australia and Brunei have vaccinated less than 5% of their population, putting them on par with other very poor countries like Ghana, Laos, Senegal, Togo and Equatorial Guinea. Brunei's vaccination efforts have been so feeble that they only vaccinated 0.5% of the entire population - yet they do fit the description of a small and rich country, given their immense oil wealth and a population of just 433,000. Brunei's vaccination rate is the same as in Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa, but the GDP per capita of Brunei is about 20 times that of Cote d'Ivoire's. Taiwan isn't the only rich country that hasn't manage to organize an effective vaccine campaign - it isn't the lack of money or political will to deal with the pandemic but there are other factors at play here. Countries like Australia and New Zealand have won international praise and admiration for the way they have managed to contain the virus in the early days of the pandemic. The countries that have a far more successful vaccination programme like Israel, the USA and the UK did not handle the pandemic well in the early days and suffered a much higher death rate from Covid-19 compared to these other rich countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Hence to understand what is going on, let's take a closer look at what is happening in Singapore: the richest country in the region.
4. Let's talk about Singapore's situation
Singapore is an interesting case - they have not been as slow as Taiwan but they are slower than even poorer countries like Uruguay, Hungary, Serbia and Maldives. Statistically, Singapore is neither standing out to be fast or slow - it is somewhere in the middle of the pact (but closer to the top half of course) at 23.9% of their total population vaccinated (as of 18 April - this was the most up to date figure I could find). This surprised me of course because Singapore is well-known for being efficient and having a very robust public health infrastructure - it has also been one of the countries praised for handling the pandemic extremely well and has even been described in a recent BBC article as "the best place to live during Covid". Furthermore, Singapore does fit the description of a small and super rich country, so certainly if they wanted, they could have vaccinated everyone in Singapore a lot more quickly but this has not happened for a number of reasons. The first reason is the same situation as in Taiwan - local transmissions are virtually zero and the moment a new outbreak occurs, the Singaporean system is able to quash those outbreaks with impressive efficiency. In fact Singapore wasn't waiting for a vaccine to come along, it has already managed to find a way to live with the virus, for daily life in Singapore to resume to some level of normality, long before the first person in Singapore was vaccinated. As a society, Singaporeans are a lot more compliant - this has been hugely beneficial in trying to get people to wear masks, abide by social distancing rules and allow the government to run the 'trace together' app, so the issue in Singapore isn't about people not willing to get vaccinated but the roll out of the vaccination programme in Singapore simply isn't as fast as other countries. Thus it is not the lack of resources or money - so why has Singapore's vaccine roll out been so slow?
Some rich countries like the UK, United Arab Emirates, USA and Israel have made deals with these vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer, Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna - the governments of these rich countries were giving these pharmaceutical companies the money up front to fund the expensive vaccine development process in exchange for being the first to be able to buy those vaccines once they are ready. Hence in the case of Pfizer-Biontech, by January 2021, 96% of the doses of vaccines they were due to produce in 2021 had already been sold, mostly through such programmes. Singapore chose not to participate in such programmes - this puzzles me as the Singaporean government is so incredibly rich, it was money they could easily afford but they simply sat back and waited for other countries to make the vaccine available, not realizing that this inaction meant leaving them at the back of the queue despite having plenty of money to pay for the vaccines once they were ready. There is an acute shortage of vaccines at the moment and the Singaporean government's inaction had left them out in the cold as a result. Furthermore, Singapore doesn't have any manufacturing capacity to make their own vaccines, so it has to import them - this lack of control over the supply chain has meant that they simply haven't been able to get their hands on enough vaccines to date. But finally most Singaporeans are unlikely to complain about the situation - the PAP rules Singapore with an iron fist and doesn't tolerate any dissent. So even if we are left with a flawed situation, Singaporeans are culturally conditioned to simply suffer in silence and be patient as the government takes a long time to fix the problem. So if most Singaporeans simply aren't complaining, then there isn't much political will to try harder to rectify the situation with a greater sense of urgency.
5. It could take a long time for the poorer countries to complete their vaccinations.
The current crisis in India shows just how difficult it is to roll out a vaccination programme in a poor country. India is a vast country with 1.4 billion people and the public health system has totally collapsed under the strain of the current deadly wave of the virus. What has the government done in response to this? Well Modi's BJP party are entirely to blame for this situation - India's government is hopelessly corrupt and they are more interested in covering up the scale of the problem than to try to ask for help from the international community. The bleakness of just how utterly evil and corrupt the Indian government is can be demonstrated in this case where a man in Uttar Pradesh turned to Twitter for try to find oxygen for his dying grandfather because the hospitals are totally overwhelmed and unable to save his grandfather. Instead of helping this man, the government charged him with intent to cause fear and alarm - claiming that there is no problem in the hospitals of Uttar Pradesh and that there are sufficient supplies of oxygen for all patients, despite the rotting piles of bodies outside the hospital. That's how evil the Indian government is and if I offend BJP supporters, then I merely shrug my shoulders and say, "this is democracy at work, you get the government you vote for. If you have to learn your lesson the hard way by losing many of your family members to Covid before you will vote for the right party, then so be it." So in light of this situation, it could be a good two, three years, possibly even more before countries like India even get their vaccination programme going and they are going to need a lot of outside help to even have a chance to succeed - in the meantime though, we can expect far more mutant variants of Covid-19 to emerge from places like India.
We have already seen Australia take tough measures in light of this: Australia has not only closed their borders with India but has made it illegal for Australian citizens in India to return to Australia, even if they are Australian citizens. Trying to return to Australia from India can be punished with up to a five year jail sentence. The question now is not whether or not the situation in India will get a lot worse - we know it will definitely get a lot worse and many thousands more will die, but what will happen in the meantime in terms of new mutant variants emerging when the virus is replicating and spread at such rate throughout a country as big as India? We might see a two-tier world emerging in the near future: one with richer countries like US, UK, the UAE and Israel who have completed a successful vaccination programme and poorer countries like India, Nigeria and Brazil who might be years away from achieving that goal. People would be able to travel freely amongst the countries in the first group but would not be allowed to set foot in countries like India. For Australian Indians, that could be an extremely challenging situation if they have family members in India but are forbidden by law to visit them in India. I see life returning to normal in places like the European Union and North America by the end of 2021, but for places like India, Nigeria and Brazil, any kind of pre-Covid normality would be several years away. Of course, I could be wrong but it would take a huge international, coordinated effort to make sure everyone in these poorer countries get their vaccinations done - so far the Covax programme has not delivered what it promised, but let's not write it off yet.
6. What is happening in China then?
China's rate of vaccination is currently quite slow at 16.4 doses per 100 people (as of the 2nd May 2021) and that's quite surprising - that rate is much lower than places like Europe and places it on par with South American countries which are poorer and less well organized. After all, China did quash the virus last year with very strict lockdowns and a phenomenally efficient testing system. Furthermore, China is one of the world's top suppliers of Covid-19 vaccines. Given how China is so strictly run by their communist government, if any country can roll out a vaccination programme quickly and efficiently, China can. Allow me to demonstrate China's efficiency when it comes to public health: in October 2020, after a few cases were detected in the city of Qingdao, the Chinese authorities tested all 9 million residents of the city in just 5 days with stunning efficiency to quash that new outbreak quickly. On top of that, China is currently the world's biggest manufacturer of Covid-19 vaccines (in second place is the USA, followed by India). So if that's the kind of efficiency that China is capable of, why are they so slow when it comes to their own vaccination programme then? Well, the answer is rather complex but part of the explanation has to do with the fact that China has exported approximately 40% of the vaccines it has manufactured - the government has prioritized 'vaccine diplomacy' over the need to vaccinate their own population. Unlike India, China actually has the luxury of doing so because local transmission rates in China are so incredibly low right now and like Singapore, China has found a way to live with the virus, for high degree of normality to resume in their daily lives without having to vaccinate everyone. China's vaccination drive could have been so much faster if they had used their entire supply domestically instead of trying to help other countries contain the virus.
Ultimately, China needs to vaccinate everyone if they are to open China up to the world. So when a very high percentage of the population in China is vaccinated, then they can relax and open the borders again, once again allowing the flow of business travelers and tourists. Effectively sealing the borders is not sustainable in the long term and so the Chinese government has to weigh up the relative benefits of doing 'vaccine diplomacy' vs the long term benefits of returning to normality after a successful vaccine programme - right now, they have clearly chosen vaccine diplomacy since unlike India, China has actually won the war against the pandemic. Is this a wise choice? That's a difficult question to answer as there are pros and cons with each option. At least the situation in China now is excellent - life has returned pretty much to normal with some restrictions, but otherwise China is now in a position to export vaccines to countries where they need it far more desperately. But otherwise, looking at the wider picture, I have always been very skeptical of China's 'belt and road' initiative and this vaccine diplomacy is yet another way for China to make dodgy backroom deals. "No problem! We will supply you with enough Sinopharm vaccines but in return, we expect you to do as we tell you to do - starting with the issue of human rights abuses in Xinjiang. We want you to tell America to shut up about human rights in China. That's just the first item on a long list I have here." There is a massive potential of China using this vaccine diplomacy to gain huge political leverage - I'm sorry but I'm so cynical about China's government, I simply don't believe they are capable of helping others without expecting a deal in the process. Nah, I refuse to believe that they're doing this out of pure altruism.
So there you go, that's it from me on this issue. Allow me to finish by reiterating the disclaimer at the very beginning of this post: we're dealing with a situation that is evolving quickly and so the numbers I have quoted were correct at the time I researched and drafted this piece, but would be out of date by the time you've read it. Always refer to a reliable source for the most up to date data on this issue. So what do you think? Are you vaccinated yet? Are you concerned about the kind of vaccine you get? Do you know of people who refuse to get vaccinated? What do you think about the terrible situation in India? Are you surprised at how slow the vaccination drive has been in places like China and Singapore, especially since these two countries have a reputation for being super efficient? What do you think will happen when there will be a small number of countries who have vaccinated the majority of their citizens then - will be see the emergence of a "travel bubble" amongst those countries? Leave a comment below please and many thanks for reading.
Hi Alex, it's been 2 weeks since my 2nd Pfizer dose so I'm fully vaccinated. However, only about 30% of the adults in my state have received a 1st dose, even though we have centers that take walk-in appointments for vaccines - they still can't get enough takers. The US is in the fortunate position of having more than enough vaccines for every American within the next 2 months, unfortunately we have a few holdout states in the South where a large population don't want it. But I do hope that after America's covered Biden will donate a few doses to other countries, there are many Astrazeneca vaccines sitting here unused because of the covid vaccine export ban. The export ban is not just for vaccines, but also the raw materials used to make them, hence India's problems manufacturing a vaccine.
ReplyDeleteWow you're ahead of me - I'm still awaiting my 2nd dose and that is not due till at least June. But the situation with Americans who refuse to get vaccinated - yup, you can't cure stupidity. I have watched news reports online featuring fat Americans who are talking crap about the vaccine and I'm like, you're a fat America, you're exactly the kind of people who will get Covid and die, yet you don't wanna get vaccinated? You would rather die from Covid? Well, where do I even begin? Likewise, when I was at the supermarket and I saw a fat, older woman who didn't wear a mask and I felt the same way - fat older folks like that woman are precisely the kind of people who die from Covid yet she refuses to wear a mask? She is literally signing her own death certificate by that token.
DeleteLol we do have an obesity rate but I don't think their hesitancy is due to that. So there are two groups of people who are hesitant, one is African Americans due to a history of racism in healthcare - understandable. The other are Republicans in rural parts with low education. The 2nd group just don't trust science in general, heck they don't even believe in Climate Change because Climate Change policy tends to oppose coal and oil jobs which they depend on.
DeleteSo although it looks "stupid", that assumes these people are even aware of bacteria/viruses and what makes people sick. I think it's because vaccines are seen as some alien technology that only rich people can make and control, hence the conspiracy theories about Bill Gates. This is what surprises me about America compared to Asia. In Asia the culture emphasizes education to the point that people assume that "education is for everyone" and not just the wealthy. You are one example, you had your sights on getting a scholarship and social mobility instead of simply working a low-skill job after finishing high school. In fact a lot of scientists I met in Sg came from humble or middle class backgrounds. In America though, and also the UK, people who are poor think higher education is not for them and that they are somehow "unwelcome" in high skilled fields like law, medicine, engineering, etc. Most of my peers here in America are either upper middle class or upper class. And the few people from humble backgrounds I meet complain about isolation, classist remarks, etc. I think it's because the public school system is very unequal compared to Asia. Despite coming from a poor family Raffles Institution was still available to you, I dunno if an equivalent is possible in the US/UK for some poor farm kid.
Well I don't even know where to begin when it comes to groups who don't want to get vaccinated - we face much the same problems with the two groups you have talked about for the same reasons. As for social mobility - you're right, absolutely: that's one thing about Asia vs the West that I find absolutely stunning. People who grew up like me in the West would have never thought they had the right to try to go to university and get a better job. But somehow, I had the chutzpah to believe I had the same rights as kids from rich families.
DeleteOh and we have limited international travel permitted from the 17 May, I am now deciding between Portugal and Iceland. This trip is going to be a pain of course: I'll be made to test, test, test and tested again but we're going to go either to somewhere like Madeira or the Azores (Portuguese islands in the Atlantic ocean) or to Iceland where hopefully there's still some snow. But at best we'll be hiking up some glacier as the ski season is definitely over by now.
Singapore may have its problems, but achieving a highly educated workforce is one of their triumphs. Otherwise they wouldn't have developed as quickly.
DeleteCool, Iceland sounds nice to visit in the summer. At least you have the time to take tests over and over. But hey, at least the world is reopening soon! Most of my boardgame club people have been vaccinated so we may meetup in person soon. And my school's sports clubs have reopened too since many students have been vaccinated.
Btw I'm surprised you're going on vacation before your 2nd dose. Would it be less of a hassle if you waited till you were fully vaccinated and Europe introduced a vaccine passport system?
DeleteWell I've not booked anything yet - the timing of my vacation plans is to coincide with the period when I am technically speaking between jobs. I know which job offer I will probably accept, but it's a question of when do I begin there - I may as well take a holiday before I start and I am not sure I wanna wait till the end of June to get my 2nd dose before I go on holiday? In any case, fingers crossed, they've been talking about the vaccine passport system for ages but there's still no news of it.
DeleteAhh okay, so you're taking advantage of temporarily being unemployed to vacation. I've done the same thing before. Yeah, its probably too soon to think about vaccine passports, because its not a very popular policy to let vaccinated tourists in when most of the country isn't vaccinated. In Italy/Spain they were thinking of letting in vaccinated Americans, but the locals complained that unvaccinated locals means many businesses would be closed anyway. Covid tests aren't too bad I suppose, better than having to quarantine for 14 days.
DeleteWell, I need to make a decision. Portugal and Iceland are on the green list for us and bookings have gone through the roof - there was talk about the testing system being overwhelmed and that it was safer to wait a few weeks to see if the whole system collapses under the rush of all these Brits who have not left the country in 8 months trying all to go to Portugal and Iceland at the same time. I may end up having to stay in a rather expensive place when I do get away as all the cheaper options have been snapped up, but so be it.
DeleteI guess if you're at a low risk of dying from covid (you've had it once already haha) then by all means go on vacation. Lol you make it sound like British tourists are a scourge on European tourist destinations haha. I guess its not just the hotel prices, but also the plane tickets that could shoot up in price. Have fun on your holiday. Hopefully when you get back life will be close to normal again.
DeleteOh I am not allowed to travel before the 17 May (that's when foreign holiday rules are relaxed) and today I spoke to a good friend who reassured me that going to get tested prior to flying is really straight forward - "it is just money, get used to it but it will be worth it I promise you once you arrive in Portugal." She goes to Portugal on business a lot. I guess I am leaning towards Portugal right now but we'll see - I hope to start doing more traveling soon if conditions remain good. Maybe I will go to Iceland afterwards - either way, I've been to both countries before but at this stage, I don't care, I'm just happy to look forward to a holiday after so long.
DeleteBtw Alex, thought I'd just give an update on me seeking therapy for undiagnosed Autism. My university's counselor immediately asked if I wanted to speak to one of their 2 Autism specialists in the psychology department for an official test/diagnosis and follow up treatment if positive. Lol I say "positive" as if I'm talking about a simple covid test. Anyway I was shocked, because in SG it would just be "your work performance/grades are fine, you don't need help/concessions", like how your nephew has to serve NS like everyone else. But here they take it seriously and think I must've suffered a lot to make it this far without help/treatment.
DeleteBtw Alex, how did you learn how to handle "small talk"? That is something that I just don't know how to do, or even like to do, but is something regular people do a lot that autistics struggle with. Unless your variety of autism means you understand small talk just fine.
Hmmm Amanda, I am deeply skeptical about these experts and let me explain why: allow me to compare it to the way I am teaching my nephew economics for his A level exams. I have spent so much time with him at least once a week to make sure that I know exactly what his weaknesses are, what mistakes he tends to make to the point where I can read a question and immediately anticipate the kind of mistake he would make with such a question. Hence the reason why I am help him so much is not because "Alex is so brilliant at economics" - no no no, the reason why I can help him is because "Alex has taken so much time to get to know this student extremely well in order to deliver a bespoke lesson to give him exactly, precisely the kind of help he needs, to fix the problems through a lot of personal attention."
DeleteI don't doubt these 'autism specialists' are super smart experts, but how much time can they spend with you to get to know you so extremely well they know you inside out? There's only so much they can accomplish in such a short time in the consultations and what you need is a best friend type character who will spend that kind of quality time hanging out with you, getting to know you well and thus be in a much better position to give you advice based on that knowledge.
As for small talk - hey, I don't reinvent the wheel when it comes to small talk. There's a super easy formula to follow: pick someone you know who is really good at it. So imagine our friend Laura is good at small talk - observe Laura, listen to Laura, study what Laura does, watch how Laura starts a conversation, take notes if you have to and then ask Laura questions afterwards. Then rather than get Laura to 'teach' you, simply mimic her, use her techniques, do what she does and that's really not rocket science. I have learnt from the best, I have simply copied what they do in order to improve my 'small talk'. You need someone like 'Laura' in your life to observe carefully and simply copy.
Okay, I guess its not realistic to expect miracles, especially since they told me what they do is supposed to be for autistic children at the children's hospital. But like with a regular education on normal subjects like English/math, there isn't a one-size fits all but it does help to have some standardized education.
DeleteSo you also struggled with smalltalk, glad it isn't just me. The thing about me is that I don't enjoy smalltalk, but its a necessary thing to do just to get normal people to want to get to know me better. Otherwise I can only befriend other autistic people, and that's a really small pool to fish from. I'm probably just gonna walk into a bar and eavesdrop on people trying to charm strangers haha. But that's good you had someone like Laura to ask. I think I can ask my friends, but I've just never done so in the past because I didn't enjoy smalltalk anyway.
This is the kind of bullshit I have to deal with when trying to book a holiday in 2021: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57107154 ie. the UK will let me travel to Portugal, Portugal hasn't decided if they will welcome British tourists yet. Urgh. So I have yet to book anything as I have other things to do in the meantime.
DeleteOn the topic of small talk & social skills, allow me to reassure you that small talk is a 2 way street. I had a business meeting this week with Peter and he was great at small talk. He would pick an open ended question to ask me like, "have you ever worked in another industry before?" and "have you ever lived/worked in another country?" When I answered the question he would say, "interesting, what was that like?" It was always easy for me to engage him as he seemed genuinely interested in what I had to say and he was constantly feeding me more questions based on what I answered. So he would avoid questions which were too easy to answer like, "when did you live in Dubai?" Cos the answer would be a date and that would be the end of it. But an open ended question would be more like, "how did you make friends when you lived in Dubai? What kind of leisure activities did you do there and did it allow you to mingle with people outside work?" Conversation with him was a breeze as I would then follow suit and ask him in return, "so what about you Peter, have you also worked in another industry as well?" It's super easy when talking with someone like Peter who is the king of small talk.
DeleteHowever! Peter and I both know this guy - let's call him CM. Oh dear. CM is terrible at small talk. Peter had a business meeting with CM and CM wanted Peter to invest in his project, so CM started off boasting about "I used to work in this big bank, I used to run a big department out of their Zurich office and I had a team of 30 people working under me blah blah blah boast boast boast etc" Then he started talking about his project and Peter couldn't even get a word in to ask a question, CM would be like, "if you would just hold on, I'll let you ask the question at the end." In the end of course Peter just wanted to end the meeting and get the hell outta there as CM was AWFUL at social skills - he was full of himself. Was CM clever and a technical expert when it came to that kind of project? Yes he was. Was he (for want of a better word) an asshole with zero social skills? Yes he was too.
So Amanda, do remember there are people like Peter and CM in this world. If you're talking to CM and struggling in that conversation, just remember, it is not necessarily your fault at all. It could be the other person being just impossible to talk to! So if you do meet someone like Peter when you truly enjoy the conversation, then do try to remember what they did to make you feel so comfortable and happy to chat during that conversation.
Lol I forget that travel bubbles have to be bilateral to work, else they are just one-way tickets. For a long time the US was letting Canadians come here because they had covid under control, but Canada was not letting in any Americans since our cases were much worse. As you can imagine this caused a lot of issues.
DeleteOh that kind of smalltalk with Peter I can totally handle. What I cannot handle are things like questions about the weather, common events(e.g the Gamestop saga), or even phrases where people are just joking but I take the sentence literally. Also I think part of the problem is that I don't usually give simple answers. At one staff meeting my boss tried to make smalltalk by bringing up the Gamestop stock saga. My immediate response was to talk about how it is a pump n dump scheme and how those are illegal according to the federal government. My boss then made this very awkward face in response to that answer, but as soon as someone else said a very boring answer like "oh yeah I heard some people got very rich off it" he returned to normal and we moved on. Maybe I'm not as bad as smalltalk as I think, I just don't always give the answer that some people are expecting, but that's probably better than being boring.
Regarding CM, my favorite quote from the writer Voltaire is: "To be boring is to tell everything..." CM is guilty of information overload, he should've only told Peter the bare minimum to get the point across, then let Peter imagine the rest. Many times what people imagine is far better than their reaction to the real thing. But I suppose CM isn't autistic, even normal people can have bad social skills so I don't have to assume that I have to be perfect or the best at everything I do to do it right.
Oh and I just found out that Iceland will gladly let me in after I've had my second shot so I have to wait till I get fully vaccinated before I book that trip to Iceland. Sigh, looks like it will have to be a domestic holiday for now after all given the uncertainty regarding Portugal and the rules regarding Iceland.
DeleteAs for small talk, it is not about magically picking the right words, it is as much about observing and listening - you wouldn't know what the other party is hoping to hear unless you've been paying close attention. That's a key skill and I think you're possibly making the same error that my nephew makes in his tests. He doesn't really read the question and then he just starts writing done a whole lot of stuff (usually quoting from his lecture notes or textbook) and all these things he is writing down is factually correct but will not gain him any marks in an exam as he simply isn't answering the question. I told him not to rush into writing anything down but to read the question a few times calmly, formulate an answer in his head before even writing the first word. Thus in comparison, when your boss brought up the Gamestop saga, he wasn't testing your knowledge on the issue - perhaps the best thing to have done was to simply say something like, "oh that was an interesting episode, what did you think about it?" That is what I would have said because I wouldn't want to risk exposing the fact that I didn't understand all the aspects of how it all worked despite working in finance. Whereas someone like CM is highly intelligent and is an expert in finance, but he doesn't know how to engage Peter. Peter on the other hand is an man who knows how to ask intelligent questions, give him enough information and then allow it to evolve into a conversation, an exchange of ideas rather than a lecturer talking at a silent audience. I've been doing this for long enough to know exactly how to handle such situations but hey, I am an old man who has been around the block and back a few times in the last few decades.
I think Iceland and Portugal are doing the right thing though. As we can see from the Tokyo Olympics hospitals can get very full very fast if the corona situation isn't well managed. A domestic holiday isn't bad, there are probably many places outside London that haven't seen tourists in months and need the money. Btw didn't Rishi Sunak try to get people to eat more takeout to support the local restaurant industry at some point?
DeleteOmg, I've been guilty of what your nephew has done on exams since like grade 3 of primary school! I always liked to read science encyclopedias or newspaper articles so all of my science exams had extra information not taught in the class. The problem was no teacher wanted to tell me "This is factually correct, but it's rude for you to not answer the question specifically", because I was at a private school where they coddle kids more than usual, and the teachers wanted to encourage me to be a scientist when I grew up. Well it happened I suppose, but now I'm getting screwed over in the workplace for not having good manners.
Ah huh, so if someone asks a question, most likely they have something to say about it but it's not polite for them to say until I ask. It surprises me how well you can explain this concept. But then again your entire job is to get people's attention and make them think they understand and like your viewpoint. I learned very quickly in science that when I write a scientific article, I can't tell people everything within 5 pages, but I still have to make them feel like they understand it anyway. At times it felt dishonest, but when people want to know more they'll ask me in person at conferences, so I don't have to "info dump" in as short time as possible like my autistic brain wants to do.
Yes we did have the 'eat out to help out' scheme so we got a max of £10 each £10 we spent. So if my hubby and I went out to spend £40 for dinner, we would pay £20 - making a dinner out a lot cheaper but that scheme is no longer running. Iceland will welcome me when I am fully vaccinated and we still don't know what Portugal's stance will be. I can go to Gibraltar but that's a 6.5 km square enclave which is probably good for a day or 2? Like it is so small you can walk from the airport to your hotel. The border with Spain is closed to me so I might find that very boring.
DeleteAs for giving too much info/not answering the question - that's a common mistake. It happens because of two reasons: firstly, there's this desperate urge to impress and a believe that knowledge will impress. That's exactly what CM did in that meeting with Peter which was precisely the wrong thing to do. The second factor is a listening/reading comprehension fail: my nephew doesn't even read the whole question properly, he rushes into writing an answer instead of taking the time to digest the question, work out the answer in his head and plan what to write before even writing the first word. Likewise in your case, I think you might be doing the equivalent in your conversations - you latch into a few key words and launch into an answer instead of taking the time to listen, evaluate and plan the appropriate answer rather than just take it as a "you've mention the word Gamestop so I am going to tell you all I know about it." That's how people like my nephew and father talk but then again, they're both very, very autistic and have Asperger's. We're autistic too but we have one major advantage Amanda, we're highly intelligent too. Like the blind skier, we can train ourselves to do things that do not come naturally to us and actually become really good at it.
So IMHO, the issue for you is listening comprehension. Listen carefully, pause, reflect, instead of rushing into an answer, ask a further question to allow the other party to talk more, such as, "it is interesting that you raised that point, how do you feel about it? Is this something you have experienced personally?" Using that tactic, I procure more information from the other party and buy me more time, so they keep talking and I listen so carefully whilst planning what I would say in response - it's not rocket science Amanda. It's about being aware of what my common mistakes are and constantly focusing on what I must do to make things right.
I do this all the time in gymnastics - I would video myself and then I notice one mistake, like I would cross my legs when I twist instead of putting them together neatly. So I would then be really conscious about putting my legs together and not crossing them the next time I perform the twist, that way I correct the mistake. It's not rocket science when correct our own mistakes, but being aware of what the mistakes are would be the first step.
Lol Gibraltar is basically Vatican city but for Brits. Yeah it's probably not worth going unless you really like Gibraltar food. So, where have you not been within the UK? Have you visited every single region yet?
DeleteThe weird thing about that Gamestop incident is that I would never do this in a casual setting outside of work like say my boardgame club or my fencing club. There I'm on my best behavior because I don't assume everyone has a lot of technical expertise or is interested to know. But at work I am asked to info dump a lot about technical topics. I just couldn't distinguish that the gamestop comment was a casual topic and not a work topic. There are also other things I struggle with in casual settings, like complimenting people and accepting compliments. Like if I don't think someone really means a compliment I'll just say nothing and feel awkward or suspicious. I'm afraid people will take that as cold, maybe I should learn to think "its the thought that counts" and just smile at the compliment.
Maybe I just don't like the people at work and can't be bothered to please them lately... but whatever recently I learned I have to care about people's emotions even if I don't like them only because I work with them. It kinda reminds me of how you have to be very nice to clients even if you don't expect them to do the same for you. Life isn't a simple transaction of goods and services, it's also built on things like trust and emotional fulfillment.
Portugal has decided to let British tourists in but for how long? The Indian mutant variant of the virus has taken hold in parts of the UK and is spreading, so we could we be in for a fourth wave and that's because our stupid government was way too slow in closing the borders to India (I refer you to Australia for how they shut their borders and banned anyone coming in from India apart from on special repatriation flights). So I don't expect the situation to get much better any time soon, the real test is how vaccinated people will react when they get into contact with this Indian mutant variant. Ideally, they will a) not get infected or b) experience mild symptoms but not need hospitalization. Right now it is younger people getting infected rather than older people, but these are the very people who could spread it as well. I saw a fat guy not wearing a mask on the train yesterday and I thought, it's people like you who are gonna die from Covid-19 so you're choosing your own fate. As for everything else we've been saying about social skills, akan datang my next post will be up this weekend and it's also about social skills and we'll chat further about it then.
DeleteHoly cow the Indian variant landed in the UK already? At least many Brits already have a 1st dose. Hahaha when you see 1 fat guy on a train not wearing a mask, where I'm at I see the whole street can have fat tourists no masks not giving a damn. At least when they get sick, it doesn't fill up our hospitals since they're from out of state.
DeleteBtw you don't have to answer in detail, but I'm just curious since your parents and nephew have autism, what about your sisters? Did it skip a generation? They seem like very nice, empathetic people who know how to make other's feel appreciated from the blog posts you've written. I don't think my brother and sister have autism, since they had none of the same quirks I had as a kid.
Yes there are at least 2 local outbreaks which can be attributed to the Indian variant and that's quite worrying. These are just in small towns but given that lockdown restrictions are being lifted on the 17th May, people from these areas could travel and bring the variant across to different areas. It then is a question of well, if older people do get infected, surely the vaccine would mean they experience very mild symptoms and not need hospitalization and younger people may get it but not fall desperately sick. The picture is good at the moment with currently very low infection rates, low number of deaths everyday (single digits) and hospitals having plenty of spare capacity - so they're hoping to step up the immunization programme in light of this possible next wave so it would not result in severe lockdowns as we've seen in the past.
DeleteI wouldn't say that my sister's have brilliant social skills if I may be honest: but allow me to state the obvious. We should not fall into the trap of imagining that people fall into two categories: autistic people with zero social skills and normal people with brilliant social skills. 99% of the population fall into "somewhere in between the two extremes" - I would say that whilst my parents and nephew have been quite close to the end of the 'autistic people with zero social skills', my sisters are in the middle between the two extremes. They're neither great nor terrible when it comes to social skills - I feel they both could do better in that aspect but compared to my parents, of course they're doing a lot better than my parents but then again, 99% of the human population have better social skills than my severely autistic parents so that's setting the bar really quite low, LOL. What I can say is that both my sisters' social skills have improved a lot throughout their adult lives as they are intelligent people who know how to figure things out, so if having better social skills will make them more successful and happier, then they will simply figure it out (same applies to me, of course).
So to be fair, I don't think it has 'skipped a generation' - I can see how my two sisters (just like me) have some aspects of their behaviour which can be classified as autistic and whilst they have been very kind towards me (which makes them nice people of course, no doubt about that), my eldest sister for example is quite reserved and shy, she isn't as confident/comfortable as I am when it comes to things like public speaking and meeting new people. So how far would you go to try to classify that aspect of her behaviour - does that merely make her shy or reserved or do you immediately say, she has poor social skill as she is clearly autistic - normal people who aren't autistic would not be fazed by such social situations and challenges. There is thus this sliding scale from 0 to 10, where 0 = absolutely no social skills (that's where my parents are) and 10 = perfect social skills, I would say my two sisters probably hover around a 5 or 5.5 if I may be honest, ie. they're doing okay but they could do better of course. But what we must avoid is the mistake of imagining that people are either a 0 or 10 on this scale, that's simply simplifying a very complex situation.
DeleteBut if I may be clear: I don't think "being a nice person" necessarily means "having great social skills." You can be a nice person but have awful social skills and vice versa. I think my oldest sister is a very nice person who has been extremely kind to me of course, but if I were to objectively judge her by her social skills - from what I have observed, she can do a lot better, but no one is forcing her to come out of her shell since she is known to be shy and reserved. We need to make sure we keep the two issues quite separate. Some autistic people can be really nice people at heart.
DeleteFrankly I don't expect very much from Boris Johnson to lock down early and make good decisions ala Jacinda Ardern. I mean the UK has one of the highest deaths per country in the world after all. But oh well, if their strategy is to outvaccinate the older people, then that works too. In the US there have been many exaggerated reports of people dying from covid even when fully vaccinated, but nobody is reporting how deaths are down overall.
DeleteI think I have a binary view of good/bad social skills because the people I'm around in my professional life expect 10/10 perfect skills, when I was only born with maybe 3/10 natural social ability. But its not like my "normal" coworkers have great social skills either, they've done a lot of stupid things but because many other people do that too its considered socially acceptable. I guess I'm content with just getting to a 5/10 from my 3/10 for now. Btw when I say "being a nice person" I mean being able to say things that make people feel good. But what people are comfortable doing around strangers isn't the same as what they do around people they know. To the people who grew up with me I'm super warm and attentive and caring, but to total strangers I'm cold because I don't know what to say to them since I don't know them very well. On the other hand my mother is amazing with strangers, but in private her personal relationships are a mess. So I suppose as you said social skills are not just 1 or 0 or even 0.00-1.00, but all sorts of variables and dimensions are involved.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/how-singapore-picked-its-covid-19-vaccines
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, the article is doing little more than singing praises of the PAP about just how well things are going in Singapore. It still doesn't explain why Singapore is way behind other countries like the UK, US, Israel and Chile. One would have thought that Singapore fits the 'very small and very rich' country where they can roll out a super efficient vaccine programme just like in Gibraltar, but clearly that was not that case and the article made no attempt to consider that issue. But this is the ST, they will never dare to criticize the PAP.
DeleteBut how do you feel about the issue TTan? Are you happy with the way the PAP has handled the vaccination programme in Singapore? Are you puzzled that it hasn't been as fast as a lot of other countries like Israel, Chile, the UK and the USA? Why has it been this slow?
DeleteThink Workers Party should ask questions about the slow vaccination roll out.
ReplyDeleteThis is when I have to completely disagree with you - Singapore is not North Korea, it shouldn't fall to the opposition to question the PAP when they get it wrong. There are two groups of people who can put pressure on the PAP:
Delete1. People from within the PAP - so we're talking PAP ministers, PAP MPs, grassroots leaders and others who are active within the PAP.
2. PAP supporters who may not be active within the PAP, but are concerned about the situation.
Both of these groups can do a lot to say, "hey, we're not challenging the PAP here but we have a massive problem that we all need to deal with and Singapore can do better." If the PAP has evolved to the point where it is like North Korea - the moment you dare to criticize the system, you're sent to jail, then goodness me. It's time to leave Singapore and flee for your lives. But no, the PAP isn't that bad yet and you've painted it out to be a situation whereby the PAP will willingly turn a blind eye to gross mistakes made by the government. I think that it is time to put aside party politics and for those within the PAP to come together and say, "hey, the PAP is not performing well when it comes to vaccination, what can we do to help resolve this system and fix it from within the system." It should fall to the opposition to fix this - that's not how politics work. If the PAP want to win the confidence of the people, then those within the PAP have to speak out and acknowledge the problems which have led to Singapore regressing to phase 2.
Will raise your point about slow vaccination with some of my pals who hate the PAP.
ReplyDeleteEven though I have already gotten 2 doses of the vaccine, the current rising 2nd wave due to the variant is very worrying.
ReplyDeleteAs it is even people who have previously been infected and completed vaccinations are getting infected. It is going to be a very long year ahead.
At this rate i think air travel is a pipe dream for the next 5 years.
OK let me raise this as you are a medical professional - surely the whole point of being vaccinated is that it doesn't necessarily make us immune to Covid but at least it makes sure that we will not get very sick, require hospitalization or even die if we get it because our bodies can then produce a robust enough immune response. This is especially important for the elderly and vulnerable, as getting Covid now means a short illness as opposed to hospitalization/death. I have spoken to my sister and she told me the case of a Singaporean nurse who was fully x2 vaccinated but still tested positive, but in this case, she only experienced very mild symptoms but the worrying thing was that as a nurse, she could potentially spread it to weaker patients in the hospital and thus that was a huge risk with her job - on top of that, Singapore's vaccination programme is not fast enough unlike Israel or even the UK.
DeleteI mean I understand that due to mutation that this pandemic is not going away anytime soon (unlike something like polio). But then due to the low rates of vaccination of the populace, why is the government still allowing in travellers from high risk countries and letting remote working all return to work until recently when a whole hospital had to be locked down, then the control had to be tightened again?
DeleteThey are sending mixed messages. Or are they saying that a few deaths and a new wave is a small price to pay for economic growth?
Hmmm. Choaniki, let me tell you about something that I have experienced recently with my nephew whilst I am teaching him economics. My nephew is really innocent and assumes that the government (ie. any government, government = an entity of who is in charge of the country) will always do the right thing like achieve economic growth, help the poor, promote education, invest in local health services, build useful infrastructure for the people, regulate the housing market etc. And I'm like, where do I even begin? Just look at India where the situation is so bad because Modi isn't interested in saving the lives of Indians, he is only interested in consolidating his grip on power. This is because he gets away with it or at least he has been able to do so thus far: in comparison, Singaporeans have done the same with the PAP. They support the PAP and allow them to get away with so many things to the point where they can do what they like, mess things up and simply know that they won't be punished for it.
DeleteHere's in the UK we're opening up again and I'm able to book a holiday to a very very limited list of destinations from 17 May - looks like the choice is now between Portugal and Iceland. Better than nothing. My sister said go go go before things lockdown again in these uncertain times, go enjoy whilst you still can.