Logic, national service and a mystery box

I got into an argument with a Singaporean mother whom I shall refer to as Mrs Tan (not her real name) on one of those Facebook groups - I assure you that we were both very well behaved and even if disagreed, it was still very civil but I had clearly failed to change her mind on the issue. So let me share with you the topic for discussion: we have a mutual friend in London, Eva (not her real name). Eva is a Singaporean woman who is married to a British man. They have a 9-month old baby boy whom we shall call Ryan (not his real name). So when Ryan was born, he had dual citizenship - she registered him as a Singapore citizen but Ryan is also entitled to British citizenship through his father. However, Eva realized that Ryan would need to serve national service as a Singaporean and she is having second thoughts about the 'benefits' of Ryan having a Singapore passport vs the cost of Ryan having to serve two years of national service. She posted her dilemma on Facebook seeking advice, her friend Mrs Tan wades into the Facebook thread and cautions Eva against making Ryan giving up his Singapore passport. Her argument is that if she did that, Ryan may have problems returning to Singapore to work in the future (if that's what he wants to do), as a parent, it is Eva's responsibility to make sure that this door is still open for him should he wish to pursue a job in Singapore as an adult. I couldn't resist responding and Mrs Tan accused me of being biased after having had bad experiences during my national service, so here's my challenge in this post - I'm going to do a cost-benefit analysis of Ryan's options, talking specifically about Ryan's situation without mentioning my own experiences at all and parking my emotions at the door, as I write this piece. 

I pointed out to Eva that there was a very clear price for Ryan to pay in exchange for keeping his Singaporean passport: it was two years of the most productive years of his time as a young adult. Now there was a simple question for Eva to answer: would the benefits of holding on to his passport (ie. the right to live and work in Singapore) outweigh the cost of serving two years of national service? Hold on to that thought for a moment as I present a hypothetical situation to you: imagine if you and I were in the same room and I brought out a massive black box - the dimensions of the box is one meter on each side of the square and the material is totally opaque. You may not open the box, you may not shake the box to try to figure out the weight of the contents; you may only observe the box from a distance. I then try to make you a deal: if you pay me $100,000, you can have the box and all the contents in there. You then ask me the obvious question, what is in the box? I give you a wink and say, "I can't tell you that, it is a mystery box. You may only open it after you've paid for it." That box could be full of cash, gold and diamonds or it might even be totally empty. At which point, any sane, rational person would say, "no thanks, I'm not paying for that mystery box. Even if it might contain something valuable, I'm not taking such a risk, not with $100,000." As you prepare to walk away, I make you a new deal - the price of that mystery box is now $10,000 - what a big discount, can you resist the allure of the mystery box at the new price? But you think, no, $10,000 is still a lot of money - I still have no idea at all what is in the mystery box, so your answer is still a no. 

What if I dropped the price to $1,000? And then to $100? Would you say yes at some point if I keep knocking off one zero from the price? For most people, they would say yes to the mystery box when the price drops to either $10 or $1 - at that price, it becomes a small enough amount of money that they could afford to lose on a gamble like this because this is exactly what this exercise is: you're gambling on the outcome to be favourable. Let's say you pay $10 for the box and you open it you find $11 in cash in there: okay, you've just made a profit of $1 and that's a positive outcome. But if you paid $100 for that same box and found $11 in there, then oh dear, that's a terrible outcome - you've just made a massive loss of $89. The reason why we are hesitant to gamble with larger sums of money is because of the concept of opportunity cost - let's look at the offer at $1,000; most of us would hesitate to gamble $1,000 with the mystery box because we would think about what else we could do with that money? If I had $1,000 to spend on a shopping spree on Orchard Road, I could buy many nice things. Alternatively, I could use that money on a lovely holiday and visit a truly beautiful part of the world. Even at just $100, you could still buy one or two items for yourself on Orchard Road or take your best friend out for a nice meal. However, at just $1, the opportunity cost is much lower - you might be able to buy a cheap drink at that price in Singapore for just a dollar. That's why lottery tickets are typically very cheap, it is persuading the gambler to part with money that they are not going to miss in exchange for a very slim chance to win the grand prize. 

In the case of Ryan serving national service, he is not in a position to bargain but just for the purpose of this exercise, let's imagine that he could. Eva is told by a government official, "if you want Ryan to keep his Singaporean passport, he has to serve two years of national service." Eva says no thank you, that's such a long time and think of what Ryan could accomplish with his life in that time, he would have completed most of a degree course, he could undertake some valuable work experience. As she walks away, "okay Eva, what if we made it just one year instead of two years? Would you accept our offer?" Eva hesitates and then still says no - the bargaining process goes on as the government official keeps slashing the time period Ryan has to serve: at some stage, Eva would probably give in if it seemed no more than an extended holiday in Singapore. I imagine she might give it at the 3 to 4 month point, but that's a massive reduction from two years. After all, we have to then ask the question, "what is in that mystery box that Eva has just purchased for Ryan?" It is the right for Ryan to live and work in Singapore as a local but what is that worth? In the previous paragraph, I talked about a positive outcome: paying $10 for the box and finding (at least) $11 in cash inside. For Ryan to make the price of two years worth it, the kind of reward has got to be worth more than two years of his life serving national service and he also wants to avoid the situation whereby the price you pay is way too high and the reward is terrible - such as paying $100 for a box that only contains $11 in cash inside. Of course, in Eva and Ryan's case, there's no bargaining with anyone: the price for Ryan's citizenship is two years of Ryan's life. Take it or leave it - that is the final and only offer. 

So let's explore an outcome where Ryan will definitely be a lot better off in Singapore as an adult and thus it makes complete sense for him to serve two years of national service. I went to secondary school with a guy who was the son of a PAP minister at that time (let's call him 'Chua' not his real name) - I even had the chance to visit his amazing, luxurious home once when he threw a party for his friends. Oh not only was Chua's family very rich, his father was extremely well connected. Chua worked a few years in the private sector upon graduation - his father made a phone call and set him up with his first job. A few years later, Chua decided that he wanted to follow in his father's footsteps and enter politics, so his father spoke to some important people in the PAP to make sure Chua would be placed in a GRC where the PAP would never lose, thus ensuring his status as an MP which was his first step to fill his father's shoes. Given that his father had retired from politics by then and wanted his son to eventually take his place as a minister. Furthermore, I also witnessed how Chua was given preferential treatment during his national service - people like that were known as 'white horses' in the army, they were untouchable, you couldn't punish the son of a minister or you could get into big trouble. So if you had this kind of 'white horse' VIP status in Singapore like Chua, then of course it makes complete sense to spend your entire working life in Singapore given that you would lose this VIP status if you moved to another country. Eva's family are just ordinary working class folks and hence Ryan is but a commoner in Singapore without 'white horse' status. 

Here are the facts about Singapore that even Mrs Tan (being a Singaporean living in Singapore) would be familiar with: it is one of the world's most densely populated countries, it is third behind only Monaco and Macau. It is also a very attractive destination for people in the region seeking a better future, so for young people in Singapore today looking for a job, they are competing not just with everyone else in Singapore but also with others in the region like China, India and Vietnam because Singapore has one of the world's most foreign talent friendly labour laws. When Mrs Tan's children reach the age when they have to start looking for a job, they will be in a highly competitive environment in Singapore. Yes of course there are many good opportunities for young adults in a big, vibrant city Singapore, but there's no guarantee that Mrs Tan's children would become rich and successful in their careers just because they are local Singaporeans. What you will find looking at the cohort of 30 year old Singaporeans is that some are very rich and successful, whilst some are very poor and struggling and there's everything in between. The factors that determine how rich they become are then more specific to the individuals - whether they are highly educated graduates, whether they have acquired the training to do a highly skilled job, whether they have good social skills, whether they speak a foreign language or three, whether they are hardworking or rather lazy, whether they have natural business acumen. These are the factors that would determine whether a Singaporean adult becomes extremely successful and wealthy, or ends up desperately poor.

In the social sciences, we are often looking for meaningful correlations between two data sets to figure out if there is any kind of causation link between the two sets of data. So we can clearly see correlations in the data set - for example, the more educated the adult is, the more they are likely to earn. This is not rocket science of course. People like Mrs Tan will compare two sets of data: the first group would be Singaporeans and the second group would be citizens of a poorer country like Cambodia. It would be then evident that the Singaporean group would earn far more money than the Cambodians and thus she would claim, "see? Look at the advantages living and working in Singapore can offer you - what more proof do you need that holding Singaporean citizenship is a massive advantage?" In this case, this is a flawed comparison: salaries in Singapore are significantly higher than in Cambodia, but so is the cost of living. Whilst you may earn more in Singapore, everything from food to transport to housing costs significantly more in Singapore than in Cambodia. The true value of your earnings is what you can actually buy with that money and thus Cambodians earning modest salaries can have a decent standard of living because everything is so cheap in Cambodia. Besides, even if average salaries are relatively high in a place like Singapore, the wealth isn't equally divided amongst the citizens. So even if Ryan did serve his 2 years of national service, absolutely nothing will be offered to Ryan on a silver platter - he will be expected to work very hard to earn his keep in a competitive city like Singapore just like every other Singaporean. 

In any case, Ryan's father is British - it's not like he is from some poverty stricken or war torn third world country with so little prospects they are forced to flee as refugees or end up working in Singapore as one of those foreign workers who live in those overcrowded dormitories. The fact that he is British means that he can get a decent education here in the UK, paying fees at a local rate (whilst foreign students pay full whack) and there are a whole range of opportunities waiting for him in the big cities like London, Manchester and Birmingham. There's no guarantee that Ryan will find a good job in London once he graduates but then again, we can say the exact same thing about Singapore: that means he is no better off in Singapore. Mrs Tan refuses to acknowledge the fact that Ryan's chances in Singapore are probably as good as his chances in London - there's no advantage for Ryan to pick the Singapore route, so why pay that very high price to keep his Singaporean citizenship? The key factor to guarantee Ryan's future success would be how much money his parents invest into his education, not his nationality per se and whether Ryan ends up living in Singapore or the UK, his parents would still have to spend a lot of money on his education regardless. So if you have two options (Singapore vs the UK) which are both pretty decent, then why would you take the one that comes at a much higher cost, which would involve Ryan sacrificing two years of his youth? Hence a logical, rational parent would simply pick the option that comes at a lower price if that option with the much higher price does not come with any kind of guarantee or notable advantage. 

So you remember my former classmate 'Chua', he had extremely wealthy and influential parents who not only gave him a brilliant education, but were able to open all kinds of doors for him in his working life. Contrast that to a working class folks in the HDB estates who wouldn't any of those privileges at all - after all, we don't get to choose our parents. Hence allow me to state the obvious for people like Mrs Tan: simply having a Singaporean passport, having Singaporean citizenship doesn't give you any kind of advantage. What does make a massive difference is the quality of the child's upbringing, richer parents can afford to buy their children a much better class of education, making sure they develop the right kinds of skills that will make them a lot more attractive to employers in the working world. Poorer, working class parents are unable to help their children in that department - the kids are then at the mercy of the education system and are pretty much left to figure stuff out for themselves as they enter the working world. This is my calculated guess: Mrs Tan is probably not one of those super rich, highly influential Singaporeans and she is not in a position to be of much help to her own children - the one thing she has given them is their Singaporean nationality: she is Singaporean, her children were born in Singapore and hence became Singaporean citizens as a result. If that's the one thing she managed to give them, then she's going to make a big deal out of it and exaggerate the kinds of advantages it could bring. So at this stage, Mrs Tan isn't even thinking about Ryan's future - no, instead she is trying so hard to convince herself that she has been such a wonderful mother who has given something so precious and useful to her children, but how true is that?

My regular readers will know that I am currently teaching my nephew A level economics to help him prepare for his exams at the end of the year - before I stepped in and assumed the role of the economics tuition teacher, my sister did ask her friends in Singapore if they knew of anyone who offered A level tuition. One of my sister's friends recommend this teacher called Mr Ong - I heard that he had taught A level economics for many years and ran a weekly class on Zoom, you had to pay quite a lot to be a part of Mr Ong's class. You might think, okay it's just money after all, surely my sister would just sign my nephew up for it, right? But no, my sister is a responsible parent: she wanted to know how good Mr Ong really was, how he ran his classes, if his teaching format would actually be beneficial for her son or if it would be a waste of time. My sister wasn't worried about the money (she is rich enough to pay for the classes), instead her concern was that if those weekly Zoom classes were of little or no help to her son, then he had much better things to do with his time. My nephew already has a fairly packed schedule as it is, so if he wasn't attending Mr Ong's class, he could go do some exercise, he could catch up with his sleep, he could enjoy some quality family time, he could be revising on his own - there were so many other things my nephew could do with his time. Mr Ong's classes only ran for 90 minutes and yet my sister wasn't willing to invest that amount of time if it wouldn't yield great results. In short, my nephew's time is precious - so did Mrs Tan think that Ryan's time is just not precious at all? That Ryan wouldn't have anything else better to do with his time in those two years required for his national service? So that is really a massive blind spot on her part!

I'm struggling to find a set of circumstances whereby Ryan can ONLY find success in Singapore and nowhere else, hence justifying Mrs Tan's theory. If Ryan is to become rich and successful in the future, he would have to accumulate the skills that will enable him to climb a career ladder very quickly. If he is indeed of that caliber, then Ryan would be successful in any country in the world, so why bother paying that high price of 2 years of his lifetime serving NS to find success in Singapore when he can be successful anywhere he chooses to go? But if Ryan is (for want of a better word) plain stupid, then he actually faces a very grim future in Singapore - it is a country without a welfare state or even a minimum wage, life is very hard for those doing menial labour in Singapore. If Ryan does turn out to be stupid, then he would be much better off in a country like the UK where we have both a welfare state and a minimum wage. We then have to change our definitions about what it means to be happy and fulfilled: I have placed the emphasis on Ryan having a successful career and making a lot of money - Mrs Tan may be prioritizing the social aspect of living in Singapore. After all, Eva's parents and siblings are all living in Singapore and if Ryan spent part of his life living in Singapore, he would get to know them a lot better compared to if Ryan spent his life in England, only returning to visit his grandparents, uncles, aunties and cousins in Singapore once a year during the long summer school holidays. Yeah, that's one aspect of family life that Ryan would miss out on if he grew up in England, but sadly he is in a no-win situation - if he lived in Singapore, Ryan would miss out on family life with his British father's side of the family. It is one or the other - Ryan can't have both. 

The only plausible (though highly unusual) situation when this would work in Ryan's favour would be if he was a professional athlete: the UK is pretty good at sports, in the 2016 Rio de Janerio Olympics, the UK finished an impressive 2nd in the medal tally, losing out to the USA but beating China into third place. Yup, the UK won 27 gold medals in Rio whilst China only won 26. So if you wanted to represent the UK at the Olympics in a sport like gymnastics where we won 2 golds, 1 silver and 3 bronzes at Rio 2016, you had to be pretty amazing. In fact, the competition to represent team GB at the Rio Olympics was so intense that some extremely talented and capable gymnasts were left disappointed when they didn't get selected because the standard was so high. Danusia Francis is a very good British gymnast but she knew the chances of her finishing top five in the country to go to the Olympics was very low given how high the standard of gymnastics is here in the UK. She managed to get hold of a Jamaican passport through her father and thus she managed to qualify for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics representing Jamaica (population 2.9 million) rather than the UK despite the fact that she was born in England. She is hardly the only gymnast who has done this - many gymnasts from America have done the same thing, training in America but eventually competing for the country that their parents (and in one bizarre case, the country of their coaches) are from because there's just no way they could have made the American national team. So if Ryan does become a professional athlete in the future, then it would be far easier for him to try to represent a much smaller country like Singapore at the Olympics rather than try to make it onto the national team here in the UK. So what are the chances of Ryan finding himself in this highly unusual situation though? It's at best very unlikely. 

Allow me to clarify: it's not that I think that having Singaporean citizenship is inherently a bad thing per se, but the whole reason why I disagree with Mrs Tan's logic is the way she is unable to justify why paying two years of Ryan's life is a reasonable price and a good deal for him to have Singaporean nationality. Her only defence was, "as a parent, you would want to have as many options as possible for your child." However, there is a legal flaw in this argument because Singaporean law does not allow dual nationality - the law clearly states that if Ryan wants to have Singaporean nationality, then he must give up his British nationality. So if Mrs Tan is trying to suggest that Ryan could hold onto his Singaporean nationality and make up his mind later, then it would make it increasingly difficult for him to pick the other option of being British. It is easier for Eva to try to renounce Ryan's citizenship now as he is still a baby under the age of one - this is because it can then be argued that Ryan never benefited from his Singaporean citizenship for the 9 months he has been alive so far. According to MINDEF, "only those who have emigrated at a young age and have not enjoyed substantial socio-economic benefits are allowed to renounce their citizenship without serving national service." But if she delays that decision for a few years, then Ryan might start benefiting from his citizenship, even traveling on a Singaporean passport has been deemed as "enjoying the benefits" of one's Singaporean citizenship. I'm not sure if Mrs Tan is trying to set a trap for Eva by asking her to delay the decision but if Eva delays this decision, then not only would Ryan have to serve national service - he would also under Singaporean law be forced to renounce his British nationality. 

Mrs Tan also said that Ryan would benefit from serving national service, that it would look good on his CV. Well I beg to differ, as a woman, she knew little about how things actually worked in the army. But let me illustrate my point with a short story about having breakfast on a beautiful beach. On my trip to Bali, I stayed at a lovely beach side resort on the north coast of the island; I remember the stunning black volcanic sand on the beach. I was only there for one night as we were traveling around the island. I had booked all my accommodation in advance through the internet before arriving in Bali so when we showed up for breakfast, the manager gave me a menu with prices on it. I was perplexed as I was sure that the breakfast was included in the price I had paid - he said no, it wasn't included, that's why the menu has prices on it, nothing was for free. I then dug out the email with the confirmation I got from the travel website which clearly stated, "BREAKFAST INCLUDED". The manager then gave an excuse that this was a new promotion they did with that travel website but he wasn't aware that the packages offered on that website included breakfast in the package. So I got my breakfast on the beach in Bali that morning, I wasn't going to let the manager charge me for it. If Mrs Tan was going to treat national service like some kind of training course where the officers were going to bring the best out of Ryan by teaching him useful skills, well - she might be confusing the army camp with a beach resort in Bali. I didn't pay that much for my night's stay at that beach resort, but I felt justified in getting what I paid for - you do not get that luxury in the army. 

The men who serve national service in Singapore are paying a heavy price to be part of that system: it is two years of their lives. But as a soldier, you don't get a say in anything - the moment you step into the system, every decision is made for you. You are given a uniform, you are told where to sleep, where to work, what to do, when you may rest, when to eat, what time to wake up in the morning. Ryan would have absolutely no control over what happens; now to be fair, some people have better experiences than others during their national service. A lot of it depends on whom your commanding officer is, how well organized your unit is, the vocation (ie. your job) you are assigned and the kind of people you have to live and work with. You may be assigned to do something you like or you might be condemned into doing something that involves nothing but hard labour - either way, there's always someone of more senior rank giving you orders and at best, you get to prove that you know how to follow instructions and that's my cue to roll my eyes. Even for one night in a beach resort in Bali, I knew exactly what I was getting. Mrs Tan wants Ryan to enlist for two years of national service, with absolutely no idea what awaits him, what he might learn, what kind of job he may do and what kind of people he would have to deal with. If I was a loving parent and wanted to nurture my son, I would pick a training environment where I could control exactly what my son was taught, who was teaching him, how he is taught rather than just completely leave it to chance and luck - in this environment where he would have absolutely no say in the outcome. 

When I am booking my accommodation for a holiday, I would go into quite a lot of detail even if it was just for one night as was the case in that resort in Bali - not only would I look into details of what was included in the price (such as breakfast), I would check the photographs of the room, I would verify exactly what kind of facilities are available, I would check the location of the hotel and most of all, I would read the online reviews to see if other travelers who have stayed there have had a good experience. That's the amount of details I would normally go through before even booking one night's accommodation in a hotel or resort - now imagine if my sister was going to send my nephew to a two year course at a university in the UK and she asked me for my help to look up the details of the course: I would start my research by asking questions like what kind of qualification would he receive at the end of the course? What are the fees for this course? Would this be useful in terms of helping my nephew find a job in the future? Is my nephew really interested in the subject of the course? Are there other institutions who are offering a similar course but teach it better? What is the reputation of the institution teaching this programme? In fact I would even look up the staff list on the university's website to try to find out exactly who would be teaching my nephew on this course. The reason why we would go into such detail is simply because we don't like to leave things to chance. I don't even want to have a bad experience staying one night in a terrible hotel - much less commit my nephew to a two year course that is poorly run and has little or no benefit for him. 

But when it comes to my nephew's national service (he enlists in less than a year, mind you), it is an opaque black box. We know absolutely about what he would do when he starts his national service and most of all, we don't get a say about what he gets assigned. But my nephew is Singaporean, both his parents only hold Singaporean nationality so there's no question of him trying to dodge it - he simply has to do it because he has no other choice so we're hoping for the best (whilst expecting the worst). Such is the mindset you adopt when you are presented with an opaque box, unable to see the contents until you have paid the price. We will only know how national service would turn out for my nephew at least a few months into 2022, once he has had the chance to settle in - any possible benefits in terms of making his CV more attractive will not be evident till the day he starts looking for a job, which I estimate to be around 2026. If he does look for a job in Singapore and he gets an older male Singaporean looking at his CV then, the default reaction might be, "all male Singaporeans have to serve NS, I served NS too back in my day, so what makes you any different or special when you're merely doing what everyone else had to do?" Don't forget, my nephew will still have reservist obligations even after he completes his national service: they can call him back for up to 40 days until he turns 40 and he is competing with foreign talents in Singapore who don't have that obligation. Given these constraints, that opaque black box had better contain something incredible for it to be worth my nephew's two years. I say that in jest of course; my expectations are low, thus I am less likely to be disappointed - however, in contrast to Eva & Ryan, my nephew does not have a choice in the matter. 

Let's explore the possibility of Ryan's future in Singapore: in order to boost Ryan's chances of succeeding in Singapore, then the sensible thing would be for Eva and her husband to move to Singapore as soon as possible, so Ryan could be brought up in Singapore. Whilst I have my reservations about some aspects of the education system in Singapore, Ryan would at least have a social network of former classmates in Singapore by the time he enters the working world. He would also have ample time to acquire the social skills to thrive in Singaporean society, having grown up there and being totally familiar with the culture. A worst case scenario would be for Ryan to grow up in England, not speaking a word of Mandarin, Malay or Hokkien, then be put on a plane back to Singapore to serve his national service - talk about a fish out of water. I wouldn't want to subject Ryan to that. NS was tough enough for locals, never mind a foreigner without much knowledge of the local culture or languages. Likewise, Ryan would find it harder looking for a job in Singapore if he was a fish out of water; it has to be an all or nothing. Either move to Singapore and bring up Ryan to be a Singaporean boy with his future in Singapore, or cut off those ties for good, so that Ryan can at least visit his extended family in Singapore in the future without worrying about being arrested for dodging NS. Currently, Eva's husband has a good job in England, he is not willing to quit that job to move to Singapore - after all, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Eva is a housewife, caring for baby Ryan. Actually, the decision about Ryan's future has already been made by default by Ryan's father's job situation - however, Mrs Tan simply refuses to acknowledge that, falsely believing that Ryan still has options. 

Mrs Tan claims that the Singaporean government may act maliciously if Eva renounced Ryan's citizenship, she claimed that Ryan would then be denied any kind of work permit or residency permit in the future, thus denying him a future in Singapore. I find that hard to believe, I have done my research and found no evidence of the Singaporean government acting so vindictively against someone in that position. Would it be justifiable to punish Ryan for a decision that his mother took when he was a 9-month old baby? If anyone should be targeted by the Singaporean government (if they really are that vindictive), surely the focus should be on Eva and not baby Ryan? That would make a lot more sense as baby Ryan has nothing to do with this decision. How could he - he is just a baby. And even if we fast forward to the year 2051, Ryan is now 30 years old and a British citizen who has given up his Singaporean citizenship as a baby, in 2051, he applies for a job in Singapore but his work permit is denied. What would he do then, if he really wanted to work in Asia? He probably would just shrug his shoulders and look for similar opportunities in Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong or Taipei. Really, even if the 'worst case scenario' that Mrs Tan postulated did actually happen in 2051 (however unlikely, but for the sake of the argument, let's explore this possibility), then it isn't the end of the world for Ryan. He would probably just go on to join the thousands of British expats working in other Asian cities, in somewhere like Hong Kong or Bangkok. 

I'm sure many of you would be thinking of Melvyn Tan at this stage: he was a former Singaporean who grew up in London and didn't serve national service. So for many years, he was thus a wanted criminal who would be arrested if he ever set foot in Singapore because he defaulted on his NS obligations. Did this affect his career as a pianist? No, he had an extremely successful career! The Singaporean authorities let him off with a slap on the wrist in the form of a small fine (instead of a 3-year jail sentence) and all was forgiven because of Tan's high profile as an outstanding musician. Quite interesting, the pro-PAP Straits Times actually published an article in 2016 critical of the way the government is inconsistent in dealing with cases of men who have defaulted on their NS obligations. If the Singaporean authorities refused to allow Ryan to renounce his citizenship until he served his full two years of national service, then Ryan can never set foot in Singapore again. Again, I ask you: is that the end of the world? I imagine that there would be many holidays to Malaysia for them, where Ryan would rendezvous with his Singaporean relatives in somewhere like Johor Bahru. After all, it is actually extremely convenient to travel to Johor Bahru even on public transport from Singapore, you simply get the bus 170 and that would take you to the Woodlands causeway, you can then get off on the Malaysian side at JB Sentral where there are loads of shopping malls right next to the border or you could continue the journey on bus 170 to JB Larkin bus terminal. Would it be too much to ask Ryan's relatives to get the bus 170 to meet him in JB Sentral?

I need to end by talking about Ryan - yes, 9-month old baby Ryan. Shouldn't he get a say in his future? Of course, as a baby, he is not able to make that decision now. Would it be fair for Eva to make that decision for him? Would it be fair for Mrs Tan to try to influence Eva? I am highly skeptical about Mrs Tan's intentions - after all, if things go right, she gets to smile smugly and say to her good friend Eva, "see? Aren't you glad you listened to me? I am so wise." But if things went horribly wrong, say Ryan was forced to renounce his British citizenship, then had to apply for a work permit to try to return to the UK to find work, only to find himself ineligible for any kind of benefits. Ryan then thinks, okay I want to get a degree from a British university- but he then realizes that foreign students have to pay full whack whilst further education for local students is heavily subsidized by the government here. Is Mrs Tan going to pay for the difference in the price that Ryan would have otherwise paid for his university fees if he had held on to his British citizenship instead? Nope, she would have conveniently forgotten that she ever gave her friend Eva any kind of advice in 2021. Eva and her husband are the ones who has to deal with the consequences of their decision for Ryan's future - Mrs Tan certainly wouldn't be in a position to help, she has her own children in Singapore to take care of. She doesn't have any extra money to give Eva to spend on Ryan and she doesn't even have the right information on the legal aspects of this case, so even if Mrs Tan's intentions are noble (there is no reason to assume she is motivated by malice), this advice is actually downright harmful.

So there you go, that's it from me on this topic - what do you think? Do you think Eva should listen to what Mrs Tan has to say on the issue or do you think Mrs Tan is giving very bad advice? At what stage do I get to tell Eva, "don't listen to your friend Mrs Tan, she is a total idiot who hasn't got a clue what the hell she is talking about." Do you think Ryan would be better off with a future in the UK or in Singapore? What are the factors that Eva ought to consider when trying to make the right decision for Ryan? Or perhaps it can be argued that Singapore is indeed a better place for Ryan to have a bright future, that Mrs Tan had simply failed to eloquently form a cogent argument to convince me - so the problem lies with the fact that Mrs Tan has been incredibly inarticulate when trying to present her case, rather than Singapore per se? And finally, why the hell is Eva trying to ask her uninformed, ignorant friends for advice instead of trying to get the most accurate information from the Singaporean authorities to make an informed decision about Ryan's situation? And do you think I am guilty of 'mansplaining' NS to Eva and Mrs Tan? Please leave a comment below and many thanks for reading.