My thoughts on the UK 2017 snap election

Hello from London! By popular demand here's my piece on the UK's snap election. General elections are now going to take place on the 8th June 2017 and you need to bear in mind the fact that we have only had our last general elections back on the 7th May 2015 - so this government had only been in office for last then two years, but what a turbulent two years it has been with the shock result of the EU referendum leading to the departure of PM Cameron, then the triggering of article 50. Many have thought that PM May would call for an election not because she needs to, but her approval ratings are so very high in the poll she would be foolish not to use this opportunity to get a much better mandate in government for Brexit. There's plenty of political analysis on the BBC website if you're really that interested in British politics, so let me offer you a more personal response to this election just a few weeks away.

Time to vote again?!

Are you surprised by the snap election? 

No. I am not actually. Many people had suspected that PM May could have called it anytime and sure enough she has. Labour is in self-destruct mode with a leader who is totally unelectable - with SNP practically running all of Scotland and a rejuvenated Liberal Democrats under a new leader, the Tories have a chance to wipe with the floor with Labour.

How do you feel about Jeremy Corbyn then? 

The Labour leader has had to survive a leadership challenge last year which he did win, but here's the strange situation with Corbyn. He is popular amongst his party members but not amongst his MPs who are convinced that he is unable to lead his party to anything but a crushing defeat at the general election because just too many people would cringe at the idea of having him as prime minister and vote for the Tories instead, or any other party. He is unaware of how modern politics work - he is an elderly, senior citizen out of touch with younger people and he lacks the charm and sophistication to work social media. He isn't great at public speaking as he totally lacks energy. He's the British version of Bernie Sanders - full of noble ideals but never going to win an election because he seriously lacks charm. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh but in this day and age, if you want to win an election, you've got to look good, sound look and be practically a rock star on stage that people will love. Neither Sanders nor Corbyn have any of that. I don't like Trump at all but even he managed to connect with enough Americans to win an election against the odds.

Wow that's quite an attack on Corbyn. Which politicians do you admire then, if Corbyn sucks? 

Obama for sure, he's number one on my list - he's eloquent, intelligent, articulate, charming, good looking and that counts for a lot in the age of social media. Then there's Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, even Nicola Sturgeon (leader of the SNP). I don't even agree with a lot of her policies, but at least if we're judging politicians by the way they present themselves and market themselves as a credible leader, she's doing a much better job that Corbyn. Staying with British politicians, I like Alan Duncan, an openly gay MP and former minister for international development. I like Tim Farron, leader of the Liberal Democrats, but not as much as I like Nick Clegg, former leader of the Lib Dems and former Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, pick any politician in the UK and I'm bound to find them more appealing than Corbyn. That's kinda sad really, as I do believe that a functioning democracy needs an effective opposition. I am looking forward to the moment when Labour is totally crushed, obliterated and pulverized, then I can turn to my Labour-supporting friends and say, "see? I told you so. I told you Corbyn was useless, didn't I?"

There are two shows that I really like - one is the House of Cards and the other is Byw Celwydd. Most of you will know the former, few of you will know the latter, but it has been dubbed the Welsh House of Cards and is the best Welsh language TV ever made. Both shows are intriguing political drama about how politicians are extremely intelligent, manipulative and know exactly what to do to get what they want. Admittedly, both shows create a certain vision of politics and a world of politicians that is complete fiction, designed to entertain rather than reflect reality - I suppose we do want our politicians to be like that. Frank and Claire Underwood are nasty villains, they are not nice people yet somehow you are totally drawn to them and want them to succeed. Likewise in Byw Celwydd, Harri James is viscous, cunning, unscrupulous yet at the same time he is handsome, charming and effortlessly oozes sex appeal - he's definitely my favourite character on the show. And then there's another brilliant comedy Veep - which depicts a different breed of politics, those who are fumbling, clueless and get themselves into trouble. I'm afraid Corbyn would fit into the cast of Veep far more than House of Cards or Byw Celwydd, given how he is a walking comedy of errors.

Who will you be voting for and why? 

Liberal Democrats. I have always voted for the Lib Dems. It is a protest vote of course, I have always lived in safe seats - that means, the result is a forgone conclusion that a certain party is always going to win because the majority of the voters in that area always vote for the same party. I moved last year from a Tory safe seat to a Labour safe seat and guess what? I will still vote Lib Dems to show them that I do support them, even if they have no chance of winning where I live. I like their leader, I like their policies, I like their stance on Brexit and I would much rather have a Lib Dem - Tory coalition government like we did before than to have that clown Corbyn as PM. Tim Farron isn't as dynamic as Nick Clegg, but he is still a pretty good leader. I really liked their former leader, Nick Clegg (former Deputy PM no less) and he is still standing as an MP in this election. I hope he will win and continue to be a positive force in the Lib Dems.

You have expressed some rather right wing views on your blog, why won't you vote Conservative then? 

I have right wing views when it comes to the economy but very liberal views when it comes to society. So for example, I am against the welfare state and don't believe that the government should spend so much money on helping the poor and unemployed. I'm in favour of slashing the welfare state - I believe that unemployment benefit does far more harm than good. I have little sympathy for poor people. (Well I was brought up in Singapore, what did you expect?) You get the idea, that would make me seem extremely right wing to some - but wait, I believe in gay marriage, I believe in letting in far more refugees into this country, I was totally against Brexit, I believe in immigration, I believe in supporting women's rights. So when it comes to social attitudes, you could consider me extremely liberal, which would traditionally make me extremely left wing. That's why I don't sit comfortably on the traditional left wing vs right wing divide as I believe that politics is a lot more complicated than that. That's why I like the Liberal Democrats as they offer me a good compromise for those of us like me who do not want to identify with either side of this very simplistic left-right divide.

How do you feel about PM May?

Whilst I don't particularly like her, I am just relieved that it is her instead of Boris Johnson who is now our PM. I don't like PM May but I absolutely detest Boris Johnson and when PM Cameron had to resign after the EU referendum, there was a moment when everyone thought that Boris Johnson may well become our next PM. The man is a walking disaster and I suppose anyone would seem like a better option when compared to Boris Johnson. It is hardly a compliment to May when I put it like that - "she isn't the worst case scenario, she wasn't the worst candidate". She has a poor voting record when it comes to social issues which makes her the kind of socially conservative Tory I despise - she was on the remain camp yet she is now pushing for quite a hard Brexit. I accept that I'm stuck with her for a while yet, it doesn't mean that I like her though, but she was the best of all the options available after PM Cameron resigned. But to put things in perspective, how good Theresa May is as a PM has far less impact on my life than say, how good my boss is as an MD and how the company I work for is run - now that has a far more direct impact on my day to day activities. And on that front, I have far more faith in the management of my company than the government - phew.

What do you think the result will be?

It is a forgone conclusion that it will be a landslide victory for the Tories, it will be a total slaughter for Labour. SNP will hold on to Scotland whilst Lib Dems and UKIP will make small gains, but mostly at the expense of Labour. What surprised me was the way Corbyn had welcomed the snap election, what makes him think he could possibly win this election? What makes him think that the results will be anything but a bloodbath for Labour and he will go down in history as the worst possible Labour leader, the biggest embarrassment in Labour's history? I don't like Labour - never voted them, don't like their policies, yet at the same time I believe that a functioning democracy needs an effective opposition that one can take seriously, so if it will take this bloodbath to make Labour wake up and finally get rid of Corbyn, then that's one good thing that can come out of this. Otherwise he may have hung on as leader till 2020.

Are you saying that just because he is very old and ugly? 

Partly, yes. Get real, you need charms and looks to triumph as a leader - I'm not claiming that May has either, but great leaders like Obama and Trudeau have got heaps of charms and looks. Corbyn is 67 for crying out aloud, most people his age are already retired rather than trying to change the way the country works. I'm afraid the whole generation gap thing is going to work against him, I just don't believe he is in touch with what young people are facing today because he is just so bloody old. Where was he say 20 or 15 years ago, when he was somewhat younger and more dynamic. Well, I can tell you - 20 years ago, Labour won a decisive victory in the 1997 under Tony Blair whom at that time, was just 44 years old. He was young, charming, had the looks and came as a breath of fresh air to British politics. Corbyn was a part of the Labour party then but had no hope whatsoever of becoming leader when up against Blair. We've seen the quality of Labour leaders deteriorate since Blair: Brown, Harman, Milliband and now Corbyn. They are really scraping the bottom of the barrel now. Ironically, Harman wasn't bad - she was the best of the lot, yet she was only the one who stepped in each time Labour had a disaster and they had to have an interim leader whilst the leader resigned in disgrace. Mark my words, I think she's going to have to be the interim leader again after they get rid of Corbyn after the elections and maybe this time they'll be wise enough to keep her as leader.

How does this compare to Gordon Brown's decision not to call a snap election then?

Brown had taken over from Blair when he stepped down in 2007 but he didn't have the balls to call a snap election despite the fact that his approval ratings weren't bad then. Instead, he clung on to power until 2010 and lost that election to the Tories. I'm sure there's a part of May that was thinking, "well I am not going to make that same mistake!" The conditions are right for May to call an election now, but it may not be in say 12 or 24 months time if the Brexit negotiations go badly wrong. There is a huge uncertainty on that front, so she is acting in her own best interests to call the election now rather than later. Yes it is a U-turn, yes she did say in the past she wasn't going to call a snap election - but so what? She has little to gain by waiting and a lot to lose if she gets the timing wrong like Brown did.

Is it goodbye to Scotland then?

Well, yes. And do the Tories care? Hell no. They really want Scotland to be independent! Do the maths - Labour had strong support in Scotland until the last elections, when they were wiped out by the SNP there. In previous general elections where Labour did win a majority, they were reliant on a good result in Scotland to get them that majority - without Scotland, well Labour are doomed for at least a generation or two. Yes they'll be breaking up the UK but in the eyes of the Tories, they will think, so what? North Sea oil is going to run out eventually anyway, let them go. We don't need their kilts and bagpipes - but most of all, you can kiss goodbye to Labour for a long time. They will be a tiny minority party which will dwindle into nothing. Scotland will be independent and what lies ahead for them, I don't know.

The polls were wrong before - can they be wrong again?

True, the polls were wrong at the last UK general election, they were last wrong with the US presidential election and they were wrong with the EU referendum. However, if Labour were to do well at this election, there should have been some sign of success in more recent, local and by elections and there weren't. The problem that they have right now is that quite a number of Labour MPs voted against Corbyn in the 2016 leadership challenge. So how are they going to go back to their voters now and say, "hey I didn't back Corbyn during the leadership challenge as I thought he was a disaster for the party, but vote Labour and let's make him PM anyway." It is a terribly conflicting message at best and PM May knows that. The Chinese saying, "趁火打劫" comes to mind: it means to profit from someone's misfortune.

How will this election affect the economy?

Good question, I was surprised that the pound rose upon the news of the election., as if it was some kind of reaction to good news. The fact is, I don't think it is either good nor bad - the economy doesn't like uncertainty, businesses need to plan ahead and be able to make decisions in a climate of certainty. That is why Brexit was so bad for our economy as we have no idea how bad or good things will be after we leave the EU - we are going into uncharted territories. Now that is the problem. When it comes to the government however, we had a Conservative government and we're still going to have one, the only difference is that PM May will now have an increased majority and hopefully that will strengthen her position when negotiating a better a good Brexit deal with the EU. If this election will deliver the stability that the economy will need in the turbulent times ahead, then it can only be a good thing, for which I am grateful for.

How will this election affect you?

Actually, it won't affect me much at all come to think of it. Nothing will change. PM May is my PM today and she will be after the election. What affects me more directly are the decisions my bosses take in my company, that will have a direct impact on my day to day activities! On a personal level, I am learning to keep my mouth shut and keep my opinions to myself, for instance, I can see on Facebook that there are a lot of my friends who are still stubbornly supporting Labour and Corbyn in spite of the circumstances - I don't see what I have to gain by antagonizing them, so I just press page down and scroll past their comments. I know what they think, I know where they stand, I disagree with them but it is not worth falling out over this. It is also good to know where they stand politically - such is social media for you, some of my friends shout their political opinions from the rooftops whilst I don't see the point in doing that at the risk of antagonizing people who clearly will not agree with me. I see the way they are arguing with each other on social media and I'd rather not get involved. No thanks, I have better things to do than to argue with them.

Let me just conclude by giving you a quick example of just how utterly divided the left is at the moment. There has been talk about a coalition of the left - a progressive alliance - that needs to be formed pretty quickly in the next few weeks to present a united front against the Tories, to stop them from a historic landslide victory. Sounds plausible right? But in reality, the left cannot agree on where they stand. Even within Labour, they are still having a civil war between those who support Corbyn and those who don't - and they cannot decide if they want to work with the Liberal Democrats who did happily jump into bed with the Conservatives after the 2010 elections to form a coalition. Oh many hardcore left wingers never forgave Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems for that - so they have branded the Lib Dems (and anyone who entertains the idea of working with them) traitors and charlatans. Yet who are they left to work with? Plaid Cymru? The Green Party? The SNP really couldn't be less interested in working with this progressive alliance as their key agenda is independence, what is in it for them to work with this alliance then? Those on the far left will never compromise with those closer to the center. They are just not gonna get their shit together in a few weeks and the result? A historic victory for Theresa May and I'll be there saying, "I told you so, I told you Corbyn was a disaster."

Okay, so that's it from me on this issue, do et me know if you have any questions please. Many thanks for reading.