UK immigration debate part 1: am I worried?

Hello again dear readers. For today's topic, I thought I'd deal with a topic that has been in the headlines here in the UK for the last few days: on the 1st of January 2014 (just over a month away), the immigration controls for new migrants coming from Romania and Bulgaria will end. That means that in the new year, we could potentially see an influx of economic migrants from these two countries to the UK in the first few weeks of 2014. Already, many British people are especially alarmed at the prospect of this influx of migrants - so I thought I'd offer my take on the issue as I am living here in central London, the first port of call for most migrants to the UK.

Firstly, let's look at some statistics to understand why this is a cause of concern for some.

United Kingdom
Population: 63.2 million
GDP (Nominal): $39,049

Bulgaria
Population: 7.4 million
GDP (Nominal): $7,033

Romania
Population: 20.1 million
GDP (Nominal): $8,630

So when you study those statistics, you can see why some people would assume that come the 1st of January 2014, there will be a queue of Bulgarians and Romanians turning up in the UK. I actually beg to differ, I don't agree that there will be that many migrants who will come and I think that from those who do come will make a very positive contribution to the economy and society here. The issue is far more complex than most people think. Here are the reasons why I feel optimistic about the issue - please allow me to inject some common sense into the argument.

Why is there such a panic about Romania and Bulgaria?

1. Dejavu, remember 2004, ten years ago?

The same thing has happened ten years ago in the 1st May 2004 when ten new countries joined the EU, including seven former Eastern bloc countries. People expected a huge influx of migrants from places like Hungary and Poland to the UK - that influx did not happen. All of these 'worst case scenario' predictions of millions upon millions of Eastern Europeans swamping London and other British cities simply did not materialize. A much smaller number came and as the economy was doing very well then, most migrants managed to get jobs and filled gaps left by local British work force. The vast majority of these Eastern Europeans spoke English very well, were very hardworking and I had the pleasure of working alongside many of them. They assimilated well and within a year, all those who proclaimed worst case scenarios fell silent pretty quickly because quite simply, they were plain wrong.

In 2008-9, the recession hit hard and the economy stagnated - many economic migrants decided that the UK was no longer promised land that they thought it was and chose to return home. Interestingly enough, the arrival of the Eastern European economic migrants after the 1st of May 2004 did not have a significant impact on British unemployment figures - it hovered around the 5% mark for 4 years from May 2004 to May 2008. It was only with the global recession in 2008 that sent unemployment rising to about 8% by late 2011. So really, any arguments about the Eastern Europeans stealing the jobs of the British people proved to be totally wrong by the unemployment figures - what happened was that the Eastern Europeans either took the jobs that the local British people didn't want or they created businesses of their own and generated their own employment.

2. The streets of London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester are not paved with gold!

The streets of London are not paved with gold - when the Bulgarian or Romanian migrant arrives here, s/he would need to fight with everyone else looking for a job, which isn't easy when you consider that there are plenty of other EU migrants from countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece who are already here looking for work because of the very high rates of unemployment back in their home countries. Yes there are jobs but there is also a lot of competition. It is a fallacy to imagine that these Bulgarians or Romanians will simply beat the rest of the competition by working harder for less money - it simply doesn't work like that in many industries where employers are looking to hire the best talent, rather than the cheapest worker.

The cost of living in the UK is significantly higher than in Bulgaria and Romania - thus any young migrant who arrives in the UK without a job would be burning through his/her savings very quickly simply paying the rent, transport and buying food. Many migrants would have done their homework before even turning up in the UK and have at least secured some form of temporary employment before showing up in the UK, so as to make sure they are not hemorrhaging money whilst job hunting. These Eastern European migrants are often highly educated and are not naive - their move to the UK is a carefully calculated decision, rather than an impulsive gamble. If they do not think they will be able to get a decent job here, they are unlikely to even show up in person in the UK.

3. These Eastern European migrants are far more intelligent than the British give them credit for. 

These potential migrants are far more intelligent than the British public would give them credit for and yes, this frustrates the hell out of me. Eastern Europeans may come from countries not as rich as a the UK and yes they speak English with an accent, but not all of them are so desperate to come to the UK that they will risk being unemployed in a place like London whilst burning through their life savings. For crying out aloud, many of these Eastern European countries have excellent education systems, so I am aghast when these ignorant Brits try to picture them as desperate. Is this a form of racism? Yes it is and I loathe it.

There is a gulf between well educated British people like me who would find such notions of anti-Eastern European racism absolutely abhorrent and those less educated British people who are struggling to make ends meet being paranoid about their jobs being "stolen" by these Eastern European migrants. The divide seems to come in the form of social class: the upper and middle classes are often far more relaxed about this issue and are happy to treat their Eastern European friends as equals, the working class are far more likely to view them with guarded suspicion, even racism. But for better or for worse, we live in a democracy and and it is one man one vote regardless of how well educated or ignorant you are. And yes, that can be frustrating indeed.

Many British people are ignorant and ill-informed when it comes to this issue.

4. It's not like there's no opportunities in Bulgaria or Romania...

There are plenty of opportunities in Bulgaria and Romania as they are both up and coming Eastern European economies with a lot of promise - don't forget that the cost of living is a lot lower there too, so even if you are not paid as much as in London or New York, whatever you earn goes a very long way too as everything from food to rent to clothes is usually a lot cheaper there. The economies in Bulgaria and Romania have been quite healthy: sure they were both affected by the 2009-10 recession, but have actually recovered a lot faster than their EU counterparts.

5. Not everyone will come, many don't want to come. 

Of the 7 million Bulgarians and 20 million Romanians, not all will turn up in the UK. Hardly. Some will come over time - but let's not imagine that the streets of Sofia and Bucharest will be utterly deserted by the second week of January 2014 because they have all come to the UK. It is not going to happen - it didn't happen in 2004 when countries like Poland, Estonia and Hungary joined the EU and it is not going to happen in 2014. The simple reason is this: Bulgaria and Romania may not be as rich as the UK, but they are peaceful countries where many people have good jobs, family ties and are perfectly content where they are. Moving to a new country and starting afresh is a challenging and very stressful task - even if Romanians do speak fluent English, you're taking them out of a community where they have family and friends and expecting them to build a new life and career without that network of support.  Many Romanians will actually choose to stay exactly where they are because they are actually pretty content with life as it is there.

Some who can come will choose not to come.

The migrants who do come will be those who are far more mobile - young graduates for example, who are seeking to improve their English, get some international working experience and they place relatively few demands on public services. These young migrants from Eastern Europe are typically very hardworking, determined, highly educated and likely to make a very positive contribution to the UK economy.

6. A level playing field for all?

Many of the Eastern European migrant workers are highly skilled and speak very good English, even those who are not graduates usually arrive with some kind of skill or work experience that puts them in a good position to find gainful employment. This puts them on a level playing field with local British workers and many companies who do hire Eastern Europeans do so on the basis of merit, rather than because they are willing to except a lower rate of pay. There has been a precedent set by the earlier Eastern European migrants who arrived after 2004 (from countries like Poland), who have a sense of pride. They know they don't have to sell themselves short and accept lower pay, they know they can easily compete with local Brits in the job market on the basis of merit without compromising on pay.

Many British workers have been working happily with their Eastern European colleagues.

I am guessing that the bulk of the Bulgarian and Romanian migrants will follow this precedent set by the earlier migrants from places like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary from the 2004 wave of migration from Eastern Europe. The alternative, is an emergence of a two-tier system of Eastern European migrant workers - those from richer countries like Slovenia, Czech Republic and Slovakia and the poorer ones like Bulgaria, Romania and Lithuania. The former will want to be treated as equals, the latter will be willing to compromise: but please note, this is just a hypothesis for the sake of the argument. Personally, I don't think it will happen - certainly, my Romanian friends will never compromise on this issue. The notion of Eastern Europeans working for peanuts and sending the money back home has well and truly become outdated and is no longer valid.

7. There are already plenty of migrant workers from all over the EU here already.

There has always been the freedom of labour throughout the EU, so way before the Eastern Europeans first arrived in 2004, we have always had German, French, Italian, Belgian, Austrian etc migrant workers in the UK anyway. The UK has always been a destination for economic migrants from poorer Southern European countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal. So it is not as if the UK had a closed labour market all these years and we're suddenly opening it up - hardly. The door has been wide open for years to anyone in the EU and door is simply being nudged a little bit wider this time round to include to more countries - when you take a step back and look at the big picture, it really wouldn't create a huge impact. Let's get real here, nothing will change radically on the 1st January 2014.

This is not a new issue for the UK, we've had immigration for decades.

8. This has been turned into a political football.

We are in the middle of a recession which started in 2008 - this is because much of the world has been in recession since then and neither the Labour nor the Tory parties have any real solutions that have worked so far. I have totally lost faith in the Labour party a long time ago and scandals like the Paul Flowers fiasco only goes to show how utterly hopeless they are when it comes to running the economy. The current Tory-Lib Dems coalition has been in government since May 2010 but have not been able to lift the economy out of recession thus far. Many of us here are dismayed, disappointed and fed up with the economy - but as this is a global situation and not a local problem, there is only so much the politicians can do to get us out of this mess. We simply have to wait for the global outlook to improve and for us to ride that wave when it comes; but until it comes, it is very tempting for some politicians to use Eastern European migrants as a scapegoat for all the complex problems plaguing our economy at the present time.

Thus far right parties like UKIP and the BNP have capitalized on this collective frustration and they present a simple solution: get rid of the migrants and everything will be fine. It is a simplistic solution that has a certain appeal to those who are already inherently racist or anti-immigration. But this doesn't ultimately solve the issue of the economy - even if you do stop immigration altogether, you still need viable solutions to stimulate the economy to get us out of this recession. This is a really big ask in the current context because much of the Western world are still struggling to come out of recession at the moment. It is really frustrating for me because I understand the bigger issues regarding the economy, yet these small-minded, xenophobic extremists are so focused on immigration they cannot see the big picture. They are wrong, they are stupid, they are misguided but such is the problem with democracy - even incredibly stupid people get to vote and there are no shortage of politicians out to woo the stupid vote.

There are winners and there are losers...

There really needs to be some common sense to this debate - the very politicians who are trying to turn this into a political football are probably profiting from the presence of Eastern European migrants. Most richer, middle class folk probably have used Polish builders when they had renovation done to their homes, they probably have used a Hungarian plumber or an Estonian electrician at some point, perhaps they have a Czech nanny take care of their children or a Lithuanian nurse take care of an elderly relative. Their local bus may be driven by a Slovakian driver and the music teacher at their children's school may be Latvian. Take away all those hardworking Eastern Europeans and just see normal life as you know it will collapse in Britain.

It is only those lower down the food chain who are worried about this increased competition from Eastern Europe who are the losers in this case - but it is fair to say that there are winners and there are losers amongst the Brits when the Eastern Europeans come. So much of the argument so far has been focusing on the losers and it is time someone stood up and said, "actually, it is not all that bad - there are plenty of winners too you know..." Do the rights of the losers outweigh those of the winners who do benefit from Eastern European migrants?

There are winners and losers when it comes to this issue.

So there you go. That's my point of view on the issue - I believe that all this hysteria will blow over once the new year comes along and the impacts of the Bulgarians and Romanian migrants can then be accurately measured. What do you think? I imagine that many of my critics will say that I am a middle class Londoner so I will not be affected by Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants - but there you go, there are people like me who are quite happy to say "welcome, binevenit, добре дошъл" to the Romanian and Bulgarian when they do come in January 2014.

I will be doing a follow up to this article later in December. I am travelling to Poland for a short holiday on the 6th December - Poland is the country that has contributed the largest number of migrants to the UK since immigration controls were relaxed in 2004. I am hoping to speak to some locals and find out their perspective on the issue, especially since the number who did come to settle in the UK represents a tiny minority compared to the vast majority who chose to stay in Poland. Look out for that article in mid-December. In the meantime, feel free to leave your questions and comments below. Thank you very much for reading.